Reference Scenario

Global Energy Prospects

World primary energy demand1 in the Reference Scenario, in which government policies are assumed to remain unchanged from mid-2007, is projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, an average annual rate of

I.8%. Demand reaches 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, compared with

II.4 billion toe in 2005 (Table 1.1). The pace of demand growth slackens progressively over the projection period, from 2.3% per year in 2005-2015 to 1.4% per year in 2015-2030. Demand grew by 1.8% per year in 1980-2005.

Table 1.1: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario

Table 1.1: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario

1980

2000

2005

2015

2030

20052030*

Coal

1 786

2 292

2 892

3 988

4 994

2.2%

Oil

3 106

3 647

4 000

4 720

5 585

1.3%

Gas

1 237

2 089

2 354

3 044

3 948

2.1%

Nuclear

186

675

721

804

5 8

0.7%

Hydro

147

226

251

327

416

2.0%

Biomass and waste

753

1 041

1 149

1 334

1 615

1.4%

Other renewables

12

53

61

145

308

6.7%

Total

7 228

10 023

11 429

14 361

17 721

1.8%

* Average annual rate of growth.

* Average annual rate of growth.

The projected level of global demand in 2030 is about 4% higher than in last year's edition of the Outlook, almost entirely because of higher demand in China and India. The global fuel mix is little changed, such differences as there are resulting mainly from adjustments to assumed GDP rates and international energy prices.2 Since WEO-2006, some new government policies and measures have been adopted, mostly in OECD countries, and their impact is taken into account in the Reference Scenario. These include tighter fuel-economy

1. World total primary energy demand, which is equivalent to total primary energy supply, includes international marine bunkers, which are excluded from the regional totals. Primary energy refers to energy in its initial form, after production or importation. Some energy is transformed, mainly in refineries, power stations and heat plants. Final consumption refers to consumption in end-use sectors, net of losses in transformation and distribution. In all regions, total primary and final demand includes traditional biomass and waste, such as fuelwood, charcoal, dung and crop residues, some of which are not traded commercially. For details of statistical conventions and conversion factors, please go to www.iea.org.

2. See Introduction for details about the macroeconomic and price assumptions.

standards for vehicles and new measures to boost biofuels in the United States and measures to support renewables generally in the European Union and Japan. However, the overall impact of these actions on total energy demand at the global level is limited. Other measures that have been newly proposed are reflected in the Alternative Policy Scenario.

Box 1.1: Major Energy Developments since WEO-2006

Over the past year, a number of events led to a tightening of global energy markets, helping to drive up prices. Oil supplies from Nigeria were disrupted as a result of a worsening of the civil conflict in the Niger Delta. Several attacks on oil facilities forced companies to halt or slow production, delaying loadings. In mid-2007, a total of 750 thousand barrels per day of Nigerian output was shut in. Civil unrest in Iraq has continued to disrupt oil production, while geopolitical tensions elsewhere in the Middle East have persisted. Technical problems have occurred in the US refining sector, adding to the tightness of global refining capacity. Disagreements between Russia and some of its neighbours over oil and gas pricing and transit fees also created worries in importing countries over the security and continuity of supply. Oil flows through Belarus and gas flows through Ukraine have incurred temporary disruptions since the beginning of2006. Despite these various constraints and rising demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a production cut of 1.2 mb/d in November 2006 and a further 0.5-mb/d cut in February 2007. In the face of rising prices, OPEC agreed to raise output by 0.5 mb/d in September 2007, but this move was not able to prevent crude oil prices from continuing to rise. The price of Brent crude rose to over $76 per barrel in nominal terms — breaching the all-time highs recorded in 2006. World coal demand has continued to increase strongly, keeping prices high. Preliminary data show that China continued to account for the bulk of the growth, its demand outstripping production. By early 2007, China had become a net importer of coal. The recent surge in coal use has led to acceleration in the growth of global CO2 emissions, at a time of growing global attention to the threat of climate change. Major reports have recently been published highlighting the risk of global warming and the potential consequences and costs of inaction. For example, the European Union has adopted a target to reduce CO2 emissions by 2020 and adopted national allocation plans for the second trading period (20082012) of the EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme. Efforts to reach a global accord on collective action to mitigate emissions beyond the Kyoto Protocol commitment period have been stepped up, though an agreement has not yet been reached.

Fossil fuels — oil, natural gas and coal — remain the dominant sources of primary energy worldwide in the Reference Scenario (Figure 1.1). They account for 84% of the overall increase in energy demand between 2005 and 2030. Their share of world demand rises from 81% in 2005 to 82% in 2030. Oil remains the single largest fuel, though its share falls from 35% to 32%. The share of coal rises from 25% to 28%, and that of natural gas from 21% to 22%. The rise in fossil-energy use drives up related emissions of carbon dioxide by 57% between 2005 and 2030 (see Chapter 5).

^ure 1.1: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario

1Í 1614121086 4 2 0

1980

^ure 1.1: World Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario

2000 I Gas

2010 Nuclear

2020 I Hydro

2030 I Biomass

I Coal

2000 I Gas

2010 Nuclear

2020 I Hydro

2030 I Biomass

Other renewables

Coal sees the biggest increase in demand among all primary energy sources in absolute terms between 2005 and 2030, closely followed by natural gas and oil (Figure 1.2). Coal demand jumps by 38% between 2005 and 2015 and 73% by 2030 — a faster increase than in previous editions of the Outlook. Nuclear power accounts for most of the fall in the share of non-fossil primary fuels, dropping from 6% of total primary energy demand in 2005 to 5% in 2030. There is no change in the share of hydropower, at 2%, and the share of biomass and waste falls slightly, from 10% to 9%. The share of other renewables, a category that includes wind, solar, geothermal, tidal and wave energy, rises from less than 1% to about 2%.

Figure 1.2: Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario

2 500

Figure 1.2: Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario

2 500

1980-2005 2005-2030

1980-2005 2005-2030

Regional Demand Trends

Developing countries are projected to contribute around 74% of the increase in global primary energy consumption between 2005 and 2030 (Figure 1.3). Their economies and populations grow much faster than those of the industrialised countries, pushing up their energy use. China and India alone account for 45% of the increase in energy use. OECD countries account for one-fifth, the transition economies for 6% and other developing countries for the rest. China is projected to overtake the United States soon after 2010 to become the world's largest energy-consuming country. In 2005, US demand was 34% larger than Chinese demand. In aggregate, developing countries make up 47% of the global energy market in 2015 and more than half in 2030, compared with only 41% today. The OECD's share from 48% now to 43% in 2015 and to 38% in 2030. The share of the transition economies is flat at 9% through to around 2020 and then drops to 8%.

The developing countries' share of global demand expands for all primary energy sources, except non-hydro renewables. The increase is pronounced for nuclear power, which drops in OECD Europe while expanding in China and other parts of Asia/Pacific. Nuclear output grows marginally in the rest of the world. The developing regions' share of world coal consumption is also projected to increase sharply, mainly because of booming demand in China and India. By 2030, the two countries together account for 60% of total world coal demand, up from 45% in 2005. Over three-quarters, or 25 mb/d, of the

32-mb/d increase in global oil demand between 2006 and 2030 will come from developing regions. China, India and the rest of developing Asia account for most of this increase. Non-OECD countries account for 72% of the growth in world natural gas demand (Figure 1.4).

Figure 1.3: Primary Energy Demand by Region in the Reference Scenario

OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Pacific Transition economies China India

Rest of developing Asia Latin America Middle East Africa

Guide to Alternative Fuels

Guide to Alternative Fuels

Your Alternative Fuel Solution for Saving Money, Reducing Oil Dependency, and Helping the Planet. Ethanol is an alternative to gasoline. The use of ethanol has been demonstrated to reduce greenhouse emissions slightly as compared to gasoline. Through this ebook, you are going to learn what you will need to know why choosing an alternative fuel may benefit you and your future.

Get My Free Ebook


Post a comment