World Energy Outlook

Box Household Use of Biomass and Coal

The proportion of the population using coal and biomass (everything from firewood to manure) for cooking is one of the indicators used to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates this share at 80 in China (WHO, 2007). For biomass alone, we estimate the figure to be 37 , or 483 million people. Most of them - an estimated 428 million - live in rural areas. We project the total number of people relying on biomass for cooking to fall to...

Technology Cooperation and Collaboration

The development and deployment of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies serve the common objectives of energy security, environmental protection and economic growth. Existing technologies can take us some of the way down the path towards more sustainable energy use a central finding of the Alternative Policy Scenario. But technological breakthroughs that change profoundly the way we produce and consume energy will almost certainly be needed to achieve a truly sustainable energy system in...

Do Chinas and Indias Equity Oil Acquisitions Improve Energy Security

For both China and India, acquisitions of equity oil overseas by state companies have formed a central plank of energy-security policy for several years. Yet it is far from obvious that the availability of equity oil would, in practice, enhance either country's physical oil supply or protect them from the effects of higher prices in the event of a supply crisis. Though the emphasis by Chinese and Indian policy makers is waning, they have long argued that equity oil enhances security because it...

Unchecked Growth in Fossil Fuel Use will Hasten Climate Change

Rising CO2 and other greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere, resulting largely from fossil-energy combustion, are contributing to higher global temperatures and to changes in climate. Growing fossil-fuel use will continue to drive up global energy-related CO2 emissions over the projection period. In the Reference Scenario, emissions jump by 57 between 2005 and 2030. The United States, China, Russia and India contribute two-thirds of this increase. China is by far the biggest...

Acknowledgements

This study was prepared by the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency in co-operation with other divisions of the IEA. The Director of the Long-Term Office, No van Hulst, provided guidance and encouragement during the project. The study was designed and managed by Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis Division EAD . Other members of EAD who were responsible for bringing the study to completion include Maria Argiri, Raffaella Centurelli, Michael-Xiaobao Chen, Laura...

Gun Fuel Shares in Household Energy Consumption for Cooking in India by Area in the Reference Scenario

World Energy Consumption Urban Rural

2000 2005 2015 2030 2000 2005 2015 2030 Fuelwood BCoke and coal BDung I Kerosene BLPG I Electricity 2000 2005 2015 2030 2000 2005 2015 2030 Fuelwood BCoke and coal BDung I Kerosene BLPG I Electricity Sources NSSO 2007 and IEA analysis. Electricity use by Indian households is growing rapidly, even in rural areas, though most of the increase in demand in absolute terms is in towns and cities. Lighting accounts for about 70 of electricity use in the residential sector. Refrigeration and air...

On Energy Poverty

Part A Global Energy Prospects Impact of Developments in India Energy Trends in China and India 117 Alternative Policy Scenario 130 International Trade and the World Economy 135 China and India in the Global Economy 136 Explaining China's and India's Economic Growth 136 International Trade and Financial Flows 140 Global Economic and Energy Market Linkages 145 Simulating the Impact of Faster Growth in China and India 149 Energy and Other Commodity Prices and Expenditures 151 Economic Growth and...

Chapter Energy Trends in China and India

2.1 Shares of China and India in the Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in the Reference Scenario, 2005-2030 118 2.2 Primary Oil Demand in China and India by Sector 2.3 Fuel Mix in Power Generation in China and India 2.4 Road Transport Fuel Consumption in China and India 2.5 Net Oil Imports in China and India in the Reference Scenario 125 2.6 Coal Balance in China and India in the Reference Scenario 127 2.7 Cumulative Investment in Energy Supply in China and India by Fuel in the...

Chapter Overview of the Energy Sector

8.1 Key Energy Indicators for China 263 8.2 Selected Targets for Improvements in Energy Efficiency in the 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy 276 Chapter 9. Reference Scenario Demand Projections 9.1 Key Assumptions for China's Energy Projections in the Reference Scenario 285 9.2 Energy Intensity in Selected Power-Generation Technologies and End-Use Sectors in the Reference Scenario 286 9.3 China's Primary Energy Demand in the Reference Scenario 287 9.4 Industrial Energy Demand in the Reference...

Defining Energy Security

Energy security, broadly defined, means adequate, affordable and reliable supplies of energy. It matters because energy is essential to economic growth 1. The term consuming countries is used to describe countries that rely on imports to meet at least part of their energy needs net of exports. Producing countries refers to net exporters. and human development. Yet no energy system can be entirely secure in the short term, because disruptions or shortages can arise unexpectedly, whether through...

CO Capture and Storage

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is one of the most promising options for mitigating emissions from coal-fired power plants and other industrial facilities. It plays a major role in stabilising CO2 concentrations in the 450 Stabilisation Case described above. CCS is a three-step process involving the capture of CO2 emitted by large-scale stationary sources and the 13. There is no definitively adopted definition of the term clean coal technology . Some prefer cleaner coal because it is impossible...

Box Natural Gas Use in Towns and Cities

Residential natural gas consumption amounted to around 11 bcm, or 22 of China's total gas consumption, in 2005. The use of natural gas in urban areas has been growing rapidly in recent years with the construction of distribution infrastructure nationwide under policies to shift households from solid fuels to gas and electricity. It is estimated that gas was supplied to more than 140 cities in 2005, a jump from only 60 cities in 2003. The number of cities with gas distribution is expected to...

Natural Gas Supply Gas Resources and Reserves

China's proven reserves of natural gas amounted to 3 720 bcm at the end of 2006, equal to 2 of world gas reserves (Cedigaz, 2007). On the basis of IHS data, we estimate that recoverable, proven and probable reserves from identified fields are approximately 30 higher, at around 5 000 bcm. We estimate that 80 of proven and probable reserves are non-associated gas, of which close to 90 are onshore (Table 10.4). Most production to date has come from onshore associated reserves, which are estimated...

Coal Resources and Reserves

Congestion China

China's remaining coal resources are second only to Russia's, totalling 1 003 billion tonnes General Geological Bureau, 1999 . These resources have been defined by exploration and mapping, but only 115 billion tonnes can be regarded as proven reserves, yielding a reserve-to-production ratio of around 50 years at current production levels. More recent assessments conclude that proven reserves could be as high as 192 billion tonnes Barlow Jonker, 2007 . A prospecting programme is currently under...

Primary Energy Demand

Primary energy demand in India is projected to increase from 537 Mtoe in 2005 to 770 Mtoe in 2015 and to 1 299 Mtoe in 2030 Table 16.2 . Demand grew by 3.5 per year in 1990-2005. Energy demand growth is somewhat faster in 2005-2015 at 3.7 per annum, slowing again to 3.5 in 2015-2030. As GDP growth is faster over the Outlook period, intensity improves more quickly than in the past. In 2025, India's energy demand passes that of the entire OECD Pacific region it equals 60 today. By 2030, India is...

Box Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of India

Most rural households in India depend on kerosene lamps for lighting. Kerosene prices are controlled by the government and are heavily subsidised. About 90 of rural kerosene is distributed through a public distribution system PDS , comprising state and district level officials, wholesalers and retailers fair-price shops . The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas fixes a quota for each state, according to historical patterns of supply rather than actual demand or relative poverty levels . A...

Renewable Energy

Renewable energy supplied nearly a third of India's energy needs in 2005. Most of this was traditional biomass. Hydropower was the second-largest source, while wind power is emerging as a relatively important source of electricity.15 Total renewable energy demand is projected to rise to 225 Mtoe in 2030. India consumed a total of 158 Mtoe of biomass in 2005, most of it by rural households. At least three-quarters of rural households (668 million people) use traditional biomass fuels, fuelwood,...

Tables For Reference And Alternative Policy Scenario Projections

The tables show projections of energy demand, electricity generation and energy-related CO2 emissions for the following regions countries World, China, India, OECD, OECD North America, United States, OECD Pacific, Japan, OECD Europe, European Union, Transition economies, Russia, Developing countries, Developing Asia, Latin America, Middle East and Africa. The tables for China and India include power generation capacity data and the World tables include more detail for CO2 emissions. For OECD...

Environmental Issues

The Chinese government is acutely aware of the serious environmental ramifications of the country's energy system. These include pollution of the air, water and soil caused by the production, transformation, transportation and burning of fossil fuels, the loss of soil fertility and deforestation caused by overuse of biomass, the disruptions to ecosystems and communities caused by the construction and operation of hydroelectric facilities, the disposal of waste from coal and nuclear power...

Final Energy Consumption

Total final energy consumption increases at a similar rate to primary energy demand, more than doubling between 2005 and 2030. At 3.0 , the annual rate of growth is lower than that from 1990 to 2005, when it averaged 3.5 . Total final consumption of coal grows by 4.4 per year on average between 2005 and 2015, before easing off after 2015. Most of the increase in coal use to meet final energy demand comes from industry. Final gas consumption increases nearly four-fold by 2030. Final oil demand...

International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to implement an international energy programme. It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-six of the OECD thirty member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are I To maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions. I To promote rational energy policies in...

Methodology and Assumptions

As in previous Outlooks, a scenario approach has been adopted to examine future energy developments. The projection period runs to 2030. The core projections are derived from a Reference Scenario, which assumes that there are no new energy-policy interventions by governments. This scenario is intended to provide a baseline vision of how global energy markets are likely to evolve if governments do nothing more to affect underlying trends in energy demand and supply, thereby allowing us to test...

Energy Policy Challenges and Uncertainties

The energy-related issues that China faces are familiar the world over, although the magnitude and the speed of change the country is experiencing are unprecedented. As in any country, China's energy-policy challenges are largely framed by national socio-economic policy goals. Paramount among them is the need to sustain rapid economic development and growth in output, but in a 1. The policies mentioned in this section are not meant to be exhaustive. More detailed sectoral policies can be found...

Energy Policy Challenges

While acknowledging the steps taken towards a coherent energy policy (see above), this section recapitulates the main challenges which face India in the energy sector, in order to highlight the key areas for action. To meet India's large energy infrastructure investment needs will require the mobilisation of public and private funds. To attract private investment, a transparent and predictable investment framework must be established. Reducing the number of people who do not have access to...

Health and Energy Poverty

There is a strong correlation between disease, such as chronic bronchitis, tuberculosis, cataracts and acute respiratory infection (ARI), and exposure to indoor air pollution (IAP) from burning biomass fuels on unventilated, inefficient stoves. According to the World Health Organization, the use of biomass for cooking and heating causes over 400 000 premature deaths per year in India (Figure 20.2). The number of such deaths in India each year is equivalent to the population of Luxembourg. Most...

Purpose and Scope of the Study

China and India are the world's emerging economic giants and centres of energy use. Phenomenal rates of economic growth in the last two to three decades in China and, more recently, in India have been accompanied by a growing thirst for energy. A rising share of their energy needs has to be met by imports, as demand is outstripping indigenous supply. Increasing fossil-energy consumption has serious implications for the environment, both in terms of local pollution and through rising emissions...

Box Regional Air Quality

Rising energy consumption and the continuing heavy reliance on coal is contributing not just to higher CO2 emissions but also to worsening air pollution in China and India. Fossil-energy use gives rise to various toxic and noxious emissions, notably SOx, NOx, carbon monoxide and particulate matter soot . These emissions contribute directly to health problems, ground-level and atmospheric ozone and acid rain. Many of these problems are of a local nature. Despite some improvements in recent...

Chinas Energy Sector

In less than a generation, China has moved from being a minor and largely self-sufficient energy consumer to become the world's fastest-growing energy consumer and a major player on the global energy market. Soaring energy use is both a driver and a consequence of the remarkable growth in the country's economy especially in heavy industry. For many years, China was able to meet its rapidly growing energy needs entirely from domestic resources, so its impact on global markets was minimal. That...

Iron and Steel

The iron and steel sector is the largest industrial consumer of energy in China, accounting for 28 of total industrial energy use in 2005. It grew by 14.5 per year between 2000 and 2005, while steel production grew by more than 20 per year in the period. China is currently the world's largest producer of steel, accounting for 34 of world steel production in 2006 World Coal Institute, 2007 . The average efficiency of medium and large plants in China is lower than that of plants in other...

Box Feedstock for Indias Fertilizer Industry

The government has in the past heavily subsidised fertilizer use in India, because of its importance in maintaining food self-sufficiency. The recent surge in oil prices, however, has increased the financial burden on the government, prompting it to reduce provision for payments to fertilizer producers in the 2007 08 budget. But fertilizer prices have not been allowed to increase and now the producers are facing large losses. The share of energy in the total cost of ammonia production in India...

Reference Scenario

World primary energy demand1 in the Reference Scenario, in which government policies are assumed to remain unchanged from mid-2007, is projected to grow by 55 between 2005 and 2030, an average annual rate of I.8 . Demand reaches 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, compared with II.4 billion toe in 2005 (Table 1.1). The pace of demand growth slackens progressively over the projection period, from 2.3 per year in 2005-2015 to 1.4 per year in 2015-2030. Demand grew by 1.8 per year in 1980-2005....

But Threats to the Worlds Energy Security Must be Tackled

Rising global energy demand poses a real and growing threat to the world's energy security. Oil and gas demand and the reliance of all consuming countries on oil and gas imports increase in all three scenarios presented in this Outlook. In the Reference Scenario, China's and India's combined oil imports surge, from 5.4 mb d in 2006 to 19.1 mb d in 2030 - more than the combined imports of Japan and the United States today. Ensuring reliable and affordable supply will be a formidable challenge....

Final Energy Demand

Total final energy demand grew by 2.3 per year in 1990-2005, reaching 356 Mtoe. Demand is projected to accelerate to 3.3 per year over the Outlook period and will be 804 Mtoe in 2030. The share of transport in final energy demand in 2005-2030 grows from just some 10 today to 20 Figure 16.2 . The transport sector dominates the growth in demand for oil. Energy demand in the residential sector grows at a steady 1.6 per year, while industrial energy demand growth accelerates from 2.4 in 1990-2005...

Residential Sector

Energy consumption in the residential sector grew on average by 1.6 per year in 1990-2005 and is projected to maintain this growth rate from 2005 to 2030.12 Its share of total final consumption will decrease from 44 in 2005 to 29 in 2030. Higher incomes and urbanisation progressively reduce reliance on traditional biomass, including fuel wood, dung and agricultural waste. These resources dominate residential energy consumption today, accounting for 79 of residential energy demand. That share...

Cost Effectiveness of Policies

The savings in energy consumption in the Alternative Policy Scenario require a fundamental shift in patterns of investment and spending. Overall, end users invest8 more, while energy producers invest less. The policies assumed to be 8. The term investment used in this section covers all spending on energy-related equipment, including supply-side infrastructure and energy-using or related equipment and appliances. implemented in the scenario mean that investment by consumers in more efficient...

Box Coal Based Alternative Fuels

China is becoming increasingly dependent on oil imports, so the attraction of technologies that can convert coal into various liquid fuels is clear. The technology is available and the economics have become more favourable in recent years, due to surging oil prices. Some such fuels can be used directly as transport fuel, while others ease oil demand by substituting for petrochemical feedstock. For example, coal gasification can replace oil gasification to produce syngas for fertilizer...

Power Generation Economics

Signal Bars

The costs of alternative generation options have been assessed, on the basis of key parameters related to fuel prices, capital costs, capacity factors and discount rates. The analysis reveals that, in the current Chinese context and without a price on CO2 emissions, coal is likely to be the most competitive electricity supply source, followed by nuclear and advanced coal. Gas turns out to be the most expensive option, with costs ranging from 4.7 to 7.7 US cents per kWh Figure 10.17 . Coal can...

Measuring Energy Security

There is no single universally recognised way of measuring a country's level of energy security. Such assessments are normally a matter of expert judgment, as the perceived risk of a serious disruption or shortfall in investment for any given country or at any given time depends on a large array of different factors. Some of these factors, such as political stability, are inherently difficult to measure. Nonetheless, most discussions centre on the following variables, or indicators Diversity of...

Impact of Chinas and Indias Energy Security Policies

China's and India's policies on energy security will have important implications for the security of other consuming countries. Any improvement to China's and India's security would generally yield benefits for all other consuming countries. Equally, efforts by other consuming countries could bring important benefits to China and India. The success of all countries' efforts to save energy, diversify away from oil and, thus, curb their need to import hydrocarbons will clearly affect the energy...

Energy Related Emissions Pollutant Emissions

India suffers from high levels of airborne pollution, largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels in power stations, factories and vehicles. The main pollutants are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2 5).17 India has set air-quality standards for various pollutants, but more will have to be done to achieve substantial emissions reductions. Total sulphur dioxide emissions in India reached almost 7 million tonnes in 2005, 3 million tonnes more than the...

Box Impact of Climate Change on China

The energy projections in this Outlook make climate change an important challenge for the country. China's first National Climate Change Programme (NDRC, 2007), published in June 2007, recognises this and notes that climate change will bring about significant impacts on China's natural ecosystems and social economic system in the future. This finding echoes those of an IPCC report on impacts of climate change, released a couple of months previously (IPCC, 2007). The issues of most concern are...