Investment in renewable energy

In the Reference Scenario, total cumulative investment in modern forms of renewable energy in the period 2007 to 2030 amounts to $5.5 trillion (in year-2007 dollars). Most of the investment in renewables - 60% of the total - is for electricity generation, followed by investment in renewables for heat and biofuels, which account for 36% and 4% of the total, respectively. Total investment in renewables for electricity generation in the Reference Scenario from 2007 to 2030 amounts to $3.3 trillion; this provides 1 617 GW of additional capacity, mainly from an increase in hydro and wind capacity.

Average annual capacity additions for renewables-based generation in the period 2007 to 2015 are projected to be 59 GW: some 27 GW for hydro and 32 GW for other renewables. Total annual capacity additions amount to 188 GW over the same period. In 2016-2030, hydropower capacity additions are 24 GW per year and other renewables 49 GW per year, out of a total new generation capacity of 189 GW per year. Annual investment in renewables will climb accordingly. Over the whole of the projection period, the annual investment in new renewable electricity capacity is higher than that in fossil-fuel power plants (Figure 7.9). Renewables-based capacity accounts for 48% of total projected investment in electricity generation between 2007 and 2030.

Figure 7.9 • World investment in new power-generation plants by fuel in the Reference Scenario

100-

Figure 7.9 • World investment in new power-generation plants by fuel in the Reference Scenario

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Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables

2015

2030

Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables

2015

2030

CHAPTER 8

ENERGY USE IN CITIES

HIGHLIGHTS

• Cities are a dynamic and vital part of global culture and are the main engines of social, economic and technological development. According to UN projections, by 2030, cities will house 60% of the world's population - equivalent to the total global population in 1986. The geographic distribution of urban population is set to change: while global urbanisation in the first half of the 20th century was dominated by European cities, the majority of urban residents today live in Asia, despite the relatively low proportion there of city residents.

• The scale and pattern of city energy use has significant implications both for energy security and global greenhouse-gas emissions. Alert to the climate-change challenge, some city authorities are actively involved in reducing energy use and CO2 emissions.

• About two-thirds of the world's energy - an estimated 7 900 Mtoe in 2006 - is consumed in cities, even though only around half of the world's population lives in urban areas. City residents consume more coal, gas and electricity than the global average, but less oil.

• Increases in urbanisation through to 2030 are projected to drive up city energy use to almost 12 400 Mtoe in the Reference Scenario. By 2030, cities are responsible for 73% of the world's energy use. Some 81% of the projected increase in energy use in cities between 2006 and 2030 comes from non-OECD countries.

• Energy use per capita of city residents is slightly lower than the national average in the United States, the European Union and Australasia (Australia and New Zealand). By contrast, city residents in China use almost twice as much energy per capita as the national average, due to higher average incomes and better access to modern energy services.

• The gap between rural and city energy use per capita is assumed to narrow over the projection period in China, but increasing urbanisation pushes up substantially the share of China's energy used in cities.

• By 2030, 87% of US energy will be consumed in cities, up from 80% in 2006. In the European Union that figure will rise from 69% to 75% over the Outlook period. Australasian cities' share of energy consumption will rise from 78% to 80% by 2030 and Chinese cities account for 83% of Chinese energy consumption in 2030, up from 80% today.

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