Contents

Preface xiii

Acknowledgments xvii

Introduction xix

From Forecasting Art to Physical Science 1

Meteorology as Forecasting Art 1

Milestones 2

"Weather Prophets" 4

A Layered Atmosphere 4

Physics Meets Meteorology 7

Measuring Initial Conditions 10

Global Warming—a Good Thing 12

Balloons and Kites 13

Scientist of the Decade: Vilhelm Bjerknes (1862-1951) 16

Further Reading 18

Calculating the Weather 21

Why Frost? 21

Milestones 22

Weather on the Front Lines 24

The Bergen School 26

Research Meets Practice 30

A Perfect Couple: Aviation and Meteorology 31

Climates Classified 34

Earth Wobbles and the Ice Comes 36

Scientist of the Decade: Vilhelm Bjerknes (1862-1951) —

His Later Years 38

Further Reading 39

Theory Development and Application 41

Cyclic Weather 42

Milestones 42

Richardson's Weather Factory 45

Creating the Polar Front 47

Forecasting Lags Theory 52

Shortcuts to Prediction 53

Keeping Planes in the Air 54

Building a Profession 57

Scientist of the Decade: Jacob Bjerknes (1897-1977) 58

Further Reading 60

Big Steps in Cloud Physics and Climatology 63

Climate: The Koppen Scheme 63

Milestones 64

Norwegian Methods in the United States 67

Little Radios and Big Balloons 71

Ice Crystals and Raindrops 71

The Great Depression Aids Climatological Study 72

Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming 77

Guy Stewart Callendar (1897-1964): Amateur Meteorologist 79

Scientist of the Decade: Tor Bergeron (1891-1977) 80

Further Reading 81

Military Needs—Disciplinary Advancement 83

Forecasters by the Thousands 83

Milestones 84

Expanding the Observational Network 86

War-Driven Research 87

Radar: A Military Tool for Meteorology 89

Numerical Dreams—Numerical Reality 90

Weather Modification 91

Figuring Out Hurricanes 95

Taming a Tempest 98

Unmasking Thunderstorms 99

Scientist of the Decade: Carl-Gustav Rossby (1898-1957) 100

Further Reading 102

The Rise of Atmospheric Modeling 105

The Cold War and Research Funding 105

Milestones 106

A Virtual Atmosphere and Real Weather 108

Big Machines with Tiny Brains 111

The General Circulation of the Atmosphere 111

Statistical Meteorology 113

The International Geophysical Year 115

Triggering Climate Change 116

The Keeling Curve 117

Scientist of the Decade: Jule Gregory Charney (1917-1981) 120

Further Reading 122

Remote Sensing Impacts Weather and Climate Studies 125

Eyes in the Sky 125

Milestones 126

A New Look at the Energy Budget 130

Snuffing Out Nascent Hurricanes 132

The Butterfly Effect 134

Still Warming Up 136

Climate Models Take the Stage 137

Looking at El Niño 138

Scientist of the Decade: Edward N. Lorenz (1917- ) 140

Further Reading 142

Climate Change—Heating Up or Cooling Down? 145

Crunching the Numbers 145

Milestones 146

GOES-1 Goes Up 149

Climate Fears: Drought and Desertification 151

Cracking Hurricane Secrets 152

On the Other Hand: A New Ice Age? 154

Peering into the Past 157

Ozone Dangers 158

Joining Forces to Solve Atmospheric Problems 162

Scientists of the Decade: Participants in International Projects 164

Further Reading 165

Climate Change Takes Center Stage 167

No Consensus on Warming—or Cooling 167

Milestones 168

Relying on Remote Sensors 172

The Specter of Nuclear Winter 172

Mud, Ice, and Sunspots 175

Closing the Ozone Hole 178

Warming—Real or Imaginary? 180

Scientists Take a Stand on Warming 182

International Commissions Address Warming 183

Scientists of the Decade: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 184

Further Reading 186

10. 1991-2000:

Global Warming 189

The Evidence Stacks Up 189

Milestones 190

The Skeptical Few 193

Collapsing Ice Sheets—Rising Water 196

The Proliferation of Atmospheric Models 198

A Technological Fix? 201

Scientific Event of the Decade: The Kyoto Protocol 202

Further Reading 204

Conclusion: Into the Twenty-first Century 207

Awards of Merit in Weather and Climate 211

Glossary 221

Further Resources 227

Index 233

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