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September. The explanatory variables used are the SOI value averaged over August and September and the total flow volume in August and September. We derive the forecast using the nonparametric seasonal forecast model described in Piechota et al. (2001) and express it as exceedance probabilities. Such forecasts closely approximate low-risk decisionmaking behavior and can be used as a direct input into the decision-making models.

Three forecast models are used:

1. FLOW: Forecast derived from flow volume in August-September

2. SOI: Forecast derived from SOI value in August-September

3. FLOW+SOI: Forecast derived from flow volume and SOI value in August-September

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