Estimating The Potential

Most investigations of the potential of forecast tools compare their predictions against "no knowledge." This section describes the coupling of forecast models to models that simulate a range of water management behaviors within a constrained problem definition. Quantification of the net financial return to irrigators of adopting climate forecasts as part of their decision-making process would provide a strong measure of the benefit of these forecasts. This is tempered by an analysis of the potential market, which reveals that a significant improvement in reliability and relevance is required before widespread adoption can be considered.

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