Modeling Results

We ran models for each catchment over the 86-year period for every combination of pumping threshold, forecast, and decision-making method. The total gross margin achieved by the farm over the entire simulation period under each of the decision models and forecasting methods is charted for the 20th percentile (Figure 3) and the 50th percentile (Figure 4) pumping threshold, respectively. In each figure, the x axis labels the seven catchment identifiers and the y axis is the total gross margin in Australian dollars.

These figures lead to a consistent set of observations:

• Use of any of the three forecast methods leads to a greater gross margin than either the average or the naive decision methods.

• In general, the SOI+FLOW method gives the greatest gross margin of the three forecast methods, with SOI generally providing the lowest gross margin.

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