Future projections of changes in air temperature

Regarding future climate change projections in the region, different IPCC models for A2 and B2 scenarios were assessed by Marengo and Soares (2003), who detected a warming of different magnitudes as a result of their use. The largest warming was approximately 4-6°C in central Amazonia during austral winter in the A2 scenario and a 2-3° C increase in the B2 scenario of the Hadley Centre model for the year 2100. At the level of time slices, Marengo and Soares (2003) show that the HadCM3 model shows a larger warming in Amazonia after 2080 than those expected in 2020 and 2050—especially during austral spring (September-November)—reaching up to 11 °C in the A2 scenario and 8°C for the B2. The other models show similar tendencies with warming a bit lower, with the exception of the CSIRO model that actually shows cooling in Amazonia.

Figure 9.7 shows a time series of mean annual air temperature up to 2100 from six IPCC models for the A2 scenario: HadCM3 from the U.K., the CCCma from Canada, the CSIRO from Australia, R30 from the U.S., and the CCSR/NIES from Japan. All IPCC models exhibit warming up to 2100, with the warmest projections being from the HadCM3 (almost 10°C warmer than the 1961-90 long-term mean) and the CCSR/NIES (7°C warmer than the 1961-90 long-term mean). The other models exhibit warming of the order of 3°C or less. The figure shows consistent warming in all models but with a large spread among models after 2070.

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