The author thanks the HOLIVAR Steering Committee for the invitation to the open science meeting held in London, June 2006. Thanks are also due to Martin Claussen (Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Germany), Rick Battarbee and Heather Binney (editors) and two reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions. Jean-Yves Petershmitt (CEA, Saclay, France) produced Figure 4.3 using data supplied by different modeling teams (NCAR, Hadley Centre, Japan Meteorological Research Institute, IPSL, Hadley Centre, Bristol University, Université Catholique de Louvain and Chinese Academy of Sciences). MarieFrance Loutre (Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium) supplied Figure 4.4 while Hans Renssen (University of Amsterdam, Netherlands) provided the data for Figure 4.6. Numerous colleagues helped with the literature review and some of them provided figures that unfortunately did not all make it in the final version: Victor Brovkin (PIK, Potsdam), Nanne Weber (KNMI, Netherlands), Johannes Oerlemans (Utrecht University, Netherlands) and Allegra Legrande (GISS, New York, USA). Part of this manuscript was written when the author was affiliated to the Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, UK. He is now funded by the Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research.

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