Analyzing the Impact of Wind Power on Power Mix Using SCM

An analysis of stochastic wind power generation and its impact on the power mix is performed using the typical method of SCM (Fig. 1). SCM is used to identify the

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Fig. 1 Illustration of SCM

Fig. 1 Illustration of SCM

Table 1 Estimated investment cost required for each power company in 2030 (unit: million dollars / year, Exchange rate: 1,300 won/$)

KOSEP KOMIPO Western Power KOSPO EWP Kwater GS Power GSEPS Others 1,760 5,046 4,534 5,353 4,805 197 2,218 1,109 617

appropriate power mix by identifying the intersections among least-cost energy sources for power generation for a given load duration curve (LDC).

Results show that the operation of a 635 h LNG 700 MW facility, 7,227 h coal 1,000 MW facility, and a 8,760 h nuclear 1,400 MW facility are required in terms of given cost information and LDC. Considering the fact that wind power generation is treated as a must-run, its long term impact on power mix is analyzed in this model. Resulting investment cost to make up such lack of power generation in terms of combined-cycle LNG power generation facilities is also calculated. Impact of the lack of power generation due to wind power on peak load facilities is estimated to be 1.17%, intermediate load facilities, 1.52%, and base load facilities, 0.02%, respectively, in 2030. The impact is considerably small at present but it is expected that the scale of power generation required to satisfy the lack of power generation will become larger as the installed capacity becomes larger.

Additional investment cost required is estimated to prepare for the uncertainty of wind power generation. A minimum of 31.5 million dollars and a maximum of 28 billion dollars of additional investment are estimated to be required in terms of LNG 700 MW facility. Table 1 summarizes the result when the above required cost is allocated to each power company based on their current installed capacity.

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