For the convenience of our analysis, both the power curve of a wind turbine and wind speed at the national level is simulated with certain constraints. Wind speed data for the areas of Youngdeok, Jeju-hanrim, Saemangeum, Seosan, and Samcheok from Sep. 12, 2000 to Sep. 11, 2000 from the wind map of KIER (Korea Institute of Energy Research) is selected for such purposes. For practical simulation, 365 x 5 random numbers are created first to select 365 days' wind speed patterns for 24-h intervals. Selected wind speed is overlapped with the obtained power curve for numerical integration. The simulation is done 1,000 times .
The promotion target for new and renewable power by the government is adopted as a base scenario. A total of four scenarios for simulation purposes are used. These scenarios represent combinations of fixed or variable annual wind power generation, and original or new peak load after the impact of wind power generation. However, only the first scenario involving the combination of fixed wind power generation with its original peak case is presented here. The same is applied for the analysis of SCM. In this scenario, stochastic output of hourly wind power generation is subtracted from peak load, and then the result is summarized in terms of maximum, 97.5%, 50%, 2.5%, and minimum impact cases.
Simulation results show that even the largest estimated impact on 2010 is less than 0.33%. The comparable figures for 2020 and 2030 are 1.20% and 4.41%, respectively. Considering the reserve margin of power was only around the 7% level on 2007, this impact may be quite significant.
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