Paul And Anne Ehrlich S Rivet Hypothesis

I. Sparing Nature

1. J. E. Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1995).

3. The term "ecosystem" was coined by Tansley. A. G. Tansley, "The Use and Abuse ofVege-tational Concepts and Terms," Ecology 42 (1935), 237-245.

4. Data kindly provided by naturalist John Watts of the Columbus Metropolitan Parks.

5. Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

6. C. F. Westoff, "Population Growth: Large Problem, Low Visibility," Politics and the Life Sciences 16 (1997), 227.

7. S. Krech, The Ecological Indian: Myth and History (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1999).

8. L. Bromfield, Malabar Farm (London: Ballantine Books, 1947), 239.

9. C. S. Elton, The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants (London: Methuen, 1958), 143.

10. As quoted in the Columbus Dispatch, Sept. 1, 2000, p. B6.

II. J. W. Bews, "The Ecological Viewpoint," South African Journal of Science 28 (1931), 11.

12. Mosquito larvae are an important food source for fish, and the adults are eaten by birds and bats, having transformed the nutrients of plants into concentrations of "meat" for the predators.

2. The Scattered Seeds

1. There are chemical signatures of the existence of life going back to 3.8 million years, but no fossils.

2. The "big five" mass extinctions are interspersed with other rises in extinction rates, though we are just coming to grips with their relative magnitudes and distributions. See A. B. Smith, A. S. Gale, and N.E.A. Monks, "Sea-Level Change and Rock-Record Bias in the Cretaceous: A Problem for Extinction and Biodiversity Studies," Paleobiology 27 (2001), 241-253. Data for the figure come from W. I. Ausich and N. G. Lane, Life of the Past, fourth edition (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1999).

3. Because humans are more similar genetically to chimps than to gorillas, yet both chimps and gorillas knuckle walk whereas our ancestors walked upright, it may be that knuckle walking evolved twice. If that were the case, it would be an example of parallel evolution.

4. A. R. Templeton, "Phylogenetic Inference from Restriction Endonuclease Cleavage Site Maps with Particular Reference to the Evolution of Man and the Apes," Evolution 37 (1983), 221-244.

a 185

5. The phrase "red in tooth and claw," quoted from Tennyson's poem (written before Darwin's On the Origin of Species), was often used in early critiques of "Darwinism" as being too violent and morally repugnant.

6. This study was conducted by William D'Arcy, but apparently never got published. The details from D'Arcy's lectures were given to me in lectures by Robert Sussman at Washington University.

7. P. R. Ehrlich and P. H. Raven, "Butterflies and Plants: A Study in Coevolution," Evolution 18 (1964), 586-608.

8. C. R. Peters and B. Maguire, "Wild Plant Foods of the Makapansgat Area: A Modern Ecosystems Analogue for Australopithecus africanus Adaptations," Journal of Human Evolution (1981), 565-583.

9. The monkeys were Callithrix manicorensis and Callithrix acariensis, two species of marmosets.

10. This is changing with greater focus on "bioinformatics," aided by the Internet. F. A. Bisby, "The Quiet Revolution: Biodiversity Informatics and the Internet," Science 289 (2000), 2309-2312.

11. E. O. Wilson, The Diversity of Life (London: Penguin Press, 1992).

12. P. H. Raven, "Disappearing Species: A Global Tragedy," Futurist 19 (1985), 8-14; N. E. Stork, "Measuring Global Biodiversity and Its Decline," in M. L. Reaka-Kudla, D. E. Wilson, and E. O. Wilson, eds., Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources (Washington, D.C.: Joseph Henry Press, 1997), 41-68.

13. N. E. Stork and K. G. Gaston, "Counting Species One by One," New Scientist 1729 (1990), 43-47; and Stork, "Measuring Global Biodiversity."

14. T. L. Erwin, "Tropical Forests: Their Richness in Coleoptera and Other Arthropod Species," Coleoptera Bulletin 36 (1982), 74-75; and Stork, "Measuring Global Biodiversity."

15. The subspecies name of Miss Waldron's red colobus is Procolobus badius waldroni.

16. J. F. Oates, M. Abedi-Lartey, W. S. McGraw, T. T. Struhsaker, and G. H. Whitesides, "Extinction of a West African Red Colobus Monkey," Conservation Biology 14 (2000), 1530.

17. R.D.E MacPhee and C. Flemming, "Requiem Tlternam — the Last Five Hundred Years of Mammalian Species Extinctions," in R.D.E. MacPhee, ed., Extinctions in Near Time: Causes, Contexts, and Consequences (New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 1999), 333-371.

18. M. E. Soulé, "What Do We Really Know about Extinction?" in C. M. Shonewald-Cox, S. M. Chambers, B. MacBryde, and W. L. Thomas, eds., Genetics and Conservation (London: Benjamin/Cummings Publishing, 1983), 112.

19. R. W. Martin, "Biological Diversity: Divergent Views on Its Status and Diverging Approaches to Its Conservation," in R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2000), 235.

20. P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-Environmental Rhetoric Threatens Our Future (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1996), 113.

21. Excepting identical twins or propagated cuttings, of course.

22. W. Berry, Life Is a Miracle: An Essay against Modern Superstition (Washington, D.C.: Counterpoint, 2000), 7.

23. I should note that cloning animals may have advantages for medical research, just not for the production of farm animals.

24. For a more thorough explanation, see M. L. Rosenzweig, Species Diversity in Space and Time (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995).

25. A. Hendry, J. Wenburg, P. Bentezen, E. Volk, and T. Quinn, "Rapid Evolution of Reproductive Isolation in the Wild: Evidence from Introduced Salmon," Science 290 (2000), 516-518.

26. C. Darwin, On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (London: John Murray, 1859), 67.

3. The Human Wedge

1. H. McHenry, "Early Hominid Stature," American Journal of Physical Anthropology 85 (1991), 149-158.

2. From Stevenson's poem "Nest Eggs."

3. C. B. Ruff and A. Walker, "Body Size and Body Shape," in A. Walker and R. Leakey, eds., The Nariokotome Homo erectus Skeleton (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993).

4. A. K. Behrensmeyer, N. E. Todd, R. Potts, and G. E. McBrinn, "Late Pliocene Faunal Turnover in the Turkana Basin, Kenya and Ethiopia," Science 278 (1997), 1589-1594.

5. J. K. McKee, "Turnover Patterns and Species Longevity of Large Mammals from the Late Pliocene and Pleistocene of Southern Africa: A Comparison of Simulated and Empirical Data," Journal of Theoretical Biology 172 (1995), 141-147; J. K. McKee, "Faunal Turnover Rates and Mammalian Biodiversity of the Late Pliocene and Pleistocene of Eastern Africa," Paleobiology 27 (2001), 500-511.

6. R. S. Devine, Alien Invasion: America's Battle with Non-native Animals and Plants (Washington, D.C.: National Geographic Society, 1998).

7. L. Gabunia, A. Vekua, D. Lordkipanidze, C. Swisher, R. Ferring, A. Justus, M. Nioradze, M. Tvalchrelidae, S. C.Anton, G. Bosinski, O. Joris, M. A. de Lumley, G. Majsuradze, and A. Mouskhelishvili, "Earliest Pleistocene Hominid Cranial Remains from Dmanisi, Republic of Georgia: Taxonomy, Geological Setting, and Age," Science 288 (2000), 10191025.

8. R. Byrne and J. Byrne, "Leopard Killers of Mahale," in R. L. Ciochon and R. Nisbett, eds., The Primate Anthology: Essays on Primate Behavior, Ecology, and Conservation from Natural History (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1997), 113-118.

9. R. G. Klein, "Human Evolution and Large Mammal Extinctions," in E. S. Vrba and G. W. Schaller, eds., Antelopes, Deer, and Relatives, Present and Future: Fossil Record, Behavioral Ecology, Systematics, and Conservation (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000), 128139. Note that the figures I use are adjusted from his data to account for the variable length of the time periods he uses.

10. Because of the mode of analysis, and the cutoff dates Klein chose, the highest number of extinctions appears to be before the human entry. But keep in mind that we are looking at the number of extinct genera as a proportion of all genera, not extinction rates. We do not know when they went extinct, just that they are now extinct and were lost to the fossil record around that time. Some of my own research deals with these issues (e.g., see the references in note 5 to this chapter).

11. This is the topic of my last book: J. K. McKee, The Riddled Chain: Chance, Coincidence, and Chaos in Human Evolution (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 2000).

12. The nature of the cave's occupation and the exact use of fire is disputed, but such details should not detract from the evident lifestyle of Homo erectus.

13. N. T. Boaz and R. L. Ciochon, "The Scavenging of 'Peking Man,'" Natural History 110 (2001), 46-51.

14. N. Owen-Smith, "The Interaction of Humans, Megaherbivores, and Habitats in the Late Pleistocene Extinction Event," in R.D.E. MacPhee, ed., Extinctions in Near Time: Causes, Contexts, and Consequences (New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 1999), 57-69.

15. We do, however, have evidence of human occupation of Northeast Asia by 1.36 million years ago and of European arctic regions as early as 35,000-40,000 years ago. R. X. Zhu,

K. A. Hoffman, R. Potts, C. L. Deng, Y. X. Pan, B. Guo, C. D. Shi, Z. T. Guo, B. Y. Yuan, Y. M. Hou, and W. W. Huan, "Early Presence of Humans in Northeast Asia," Nature 413 (2001), 413-417; P. Pavlov, J. I. Svendsen, and S. Indrelid, "Human Presence in the European Arctic Nearly 40,000 Years Ago," Nature 413 (2001), 64-67.

16. P. S. Martin and D. W. Steadman, "Prehistoric Extinctions on Islands and Continents," in R.D.E. MacPhee, ed., Extinctions in Near Time: Causes, Contexts, and Consequences (New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, 1999), 17-55.

17. N. Owen-Smith, "Pleistocene Extinctions: The Pivotal Role of Megaherbivores," Paleobiology 13 (1987), 351-362.

18. Owen-Smith, "Pleistocene Extinctions."

19. J. Alroy, "A Multispecies Overkill Simulation of the End-Pleistocene Megafaunal Mass Extinction," Science 292 (2001), 1893-1896.

20. I should note that Alroy used higher rates of population growth than I did earlier in this chapter. However, if one adjusts back the time of initial human entry from the time used in Alroy's model, then the eventual consequences are the same.

21. Alroy, "Multispecies Overkill Simulation," 1896.

22. R. G. Roberts, T. F. Flannery, L. K. Ayliffe, H. Yoshida, J. M. Olley, G. J. Prideaux, G. M. Laslett, A. Baynes, M. A. Smith, R. Jones, and B. L. Smith, "New Ages for the Last Australian Megafauna: Continent-wide Extinction about 46,000 Years Ago," Science 292 (2001), 1888-1892.

23. L. Dayton, "Mass Extinctions Pinned on Ice Age Hunters," Science 292 (2001), 1819.

25. R. N. Holdaway and C. Jacomb, "Rapid Extinction of the Moas (Aves: Dinornithiformes): Model, Test, and Implications," Science 287 (2000), 2250-2254.

26. J. Diamond, "Blitzkrieg against the Moas," Science 287 (2000), 2170-2171.

27. Owen-Smith, "Pleistocene Extinctions," 65.

4. Genesis of a Crisis

1. M. C. Stiner, N. D. Munro, and T. A. Surovell, "The Tortoise and the Hare: Small-Game Use, the Broad-Spectrum Revolution, and Paleolithic Demography," Current Anthropology 41 (2000), 39-58.

2. V. G. Childe, Social Evolution (London: Watts, 2000).

3. P. J. Richerson, R. Boyd, and R. L. Bettinger, "Was Agriculture Impossible during the Pleistocene but Mandatory during the Holocene? A Climate Change Hypothesis," American Antiquity 66 (2001), 387-411.

4. R. J. Braidwood, Prehistoric Men (Chicago: Chicago Natural History Museum, 1951); R. J. Braidwood and G. R. Willey, "Conclusions and Afterthoughts," in R. J. Braidwood and G. R. Willey, eds., Courses towards Urban Life (Chicago: Aldine, 1962), 330-359. Incidentally, the character Professor Ravenwood of the Indiana Jones movie was modeled after Robert Braidwood.

5. This "orthogenetic" point of view, however, has recently been revived by Robert Wright, Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny (New York: Pantheon Books, 2000).

6. D. Rindos, The Origins of Agriculture: An Evolutionary Perspective (San Diego: Academic Press, 1984).

7. B. D. Smith, The Emergence of Agriculture (New York: Scientific American Library, 1995).

8. M. Rosenberg, "Cheating at Musical Chairs: Territoriality and Sedentism in an Evolutionary Context," Current Anthropology 39 (1998), 657.

9. Rosenberg, "Cheating at Musical Chairs," 660.

10. The egg came first in evolution. The egg came from a bird that was almost a chicken.

11. It should be noted that one can play with this model, giving it higher growth rates more recently and slower or variable growth rates in the past, but almost invariably the exponential upswing around ten thousand years ago becomes evident.

12. J. Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1997); see also McKee, Riddled Chain, for more on autocatalysis.

13. Haeckel is often credited with coining the word "ecology," but apparently it should be attributed to Hanns Reiter, who first used it in 1885. Haeckel did bring the term into common use.

14. J. W. Bennett, The Ecological Transition: Cultural Anthropology and Human Adaptation (New York: Pergamon Press, 1976), 3.

15. Rindos, Origins of Agriculture, 6.

16. Bennett, Ecological Transition, 5.

17. M. J. and J. M. Anderson, "Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in Agricultural Systems," in E.-D. Schulze and H. A. Mooney, eds., Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1993), 15-41.

18. E. Pennisi, "The Push to Pit Genomics against Fungal Pathogens," Science 292 (2001), 2273-2274.

19. A. S. Moffat, "Finding New Ways to Fight Plant Disease," Science 292 (2001), 2270-2273.

20. W. H. Drury, Jr., Chance and Change: Ecology for Conservationists (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998), 190.

21. Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary (Springfield, Mass.: G. & C. Merriam Co., 1975), my trusty companion since I graduated from high school.

22. Bews, "Ecological Viewpoint," 12-13.

23. C. L. Redman, Human Impact on Ancient Environments (Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1999).

24. P. B. deMenocal, "Cultural Responses to Climate Change during the Late Holocene," Science 292 (2001), 667-673.

25. deMenocal, "Cultural Responses."

26. D. A. Hodell, M. Brenner, J. H. Curtis, and T. Guilderson, "Solar Forcing of Drought Frequency in the Maya Lowlands," Science 292 (2001), 1367-1371.

27. E. H. Roseboom and F. P. Weisenburger, A History of Ohio (Columbus: Ohio Historical Society, 1973).

28. Diamond (Guns, Germs, and Steel) presents a superb and thorough account of this story.

29. Krech, Ecological Indian, 99.

30. Krech, Ecological Indian.

31. Roseboom and Weisenburger, History of Ohio, 5.

32. Cohen, How Many People.

33. S. L. Pimm, The World According to Pimm: A Scientist Audits the Earth (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2001), building on the work of P. M. Vitousek, P. R. Ehrlich, A. H. Ehrlich, and P. A. Matson, "Human Appropriation of the Products of Photosynthesis," Bioscience 36 (1986), 368-373. Pimm's book makes for excellent reading on this subject.

34. D. Tilman, J. Fargione, B. Wolff, C. D'Antonio, A. Dobson, R. Howarth, D. Schindler, W. H. Schlesinger, D. Simberloff, and D. Swackhamer, "Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change," Science 292 (2001), 281-284.

35. P. M. Vitousek, H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J. M. Melillo, "Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems," Science 277 (1997), 494-499.

36. Tilman et al., "Forecasting," 283.

37. P. R. Ehrlich, Human Natures: Genes, Cultures, and the Human Prospect (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2000), and comments from an October 24, 2001, WGN Chicago radio interview.

5. Germs of Existence

1. I last visited China in 1991. Apparently some birds have returned since that time.

2. J. Shapiro, Mao's War against Nature: Politics and the Environment in Revolutionary China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001).

3. S. Tuljapurkar, N. Li, and C. Boe, "A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G7 Countries," Nature 405 (2000), 789-792.

4. The natality rate is also sometimes called the "crude fertility rate."

5. All the data presented in this section come from the U.S. Census Bureau.

6. The true replacement rate depends on the structure of the population and changes in mortality.

7. Although both the United States and China have a 0.9 percent growth rate, much of the U.S. rate is attributable to immigration.

8. South Africa's growth rate had negative values during much of the early 1990s, largely due to emigration.

9. Weasel, "Pop with Weasel," The ZPG Reporter 31 (1999), 1.

10. W. Lutz, W. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov, "The End of World Population Growth," Nature 412 (2001), 543-545.

11. J. R. Weeks, Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth Publishing Co., 1978), 278.

12. Lutz et al., "End of World Population Growth," 544.

13. McKee, Riddled Chain. My apologies for the repetition to those who read this before, but the exercise is worth pursuing in greater detail here.

14. I put "conservative" in quotes because Limbaugh's ideas are actually quite radical.

15. P. R. Ehrlich and J. Holdren, "Impact of Population Growth," Science 171 (1971), 12121217.

16. Cohen, How Many People.

17. From A. A. Milne's Winnie-the-Pooh tales.

18. D. M. Raup, "The Role of Extinction in Evolution," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 91 (1994), 6758.

19. R. Leakey and R. Lewin, The Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind (New York: Anchor Books, 1995).

20. J. D. Skinner and R.H.N. Smithers, The Mammals of the Southern African Subregion (Pretoria: University of Pretoria, 1990).

21. According to the IUCN Red List.

22. No bigger than Ireland, including Northern Ireland.

23. For a complete look at the status of biodiversity in the United States see B. A. Stein, L. S. Kutner, and J. S. Adams, eds., Precious Heritage: The Status of Biodiversity in the United States (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).

24. Stork, "Measuring Global Biodiversity."

25. D. J. Forester and G. E. Machlis, "Modeling Human Factors That Affect the Loss of Biodiversity," Conservation Biology 10 (1996), 1253-1263.

26. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/

27. These are the categories of the IUCN-World Conservation Union Red List of Threatened Mammals. Extinct and extinct in the wild are additional categories, but the numbers are highly variable depending on how well-known an area has been studied in the past. Moreover, we know that all places have a high number of extinct species, depending on how far back in time you go.

28. For confirmation from sub-Saharan Africa, see also A. Balmford, J. L. Moore, T. Brooks, N. Burgess, L. A. Hansen, P. Williams, and C. Rahbek, "Conservation Conflicts across Africa," Science 291 (2001), 2616-2619.

29. D. Fooce and J. K. McKee, "Human Population Size as a Predictor of Threatened Species," American Journal of Physical Anthropology Supplement 23 (2002), 71.

30. M. L. McKinney, "Role of Human Population Size in Raising Bird and Mammal Threat among Nations," Animal Conservation 4 (2001), 45-57.

31. J. K. McKee, P. W. Sciulli, C. D. Fooce, and T. A. Waite, "Predicting Biodiversity Threats Associated with Human Population Growth," in preparation.

32. In detail, the model is log-transformed and looks like this: log threatened species per 106 km2 = -1.534 + 0.691 X log species richness + 0.259 X human population density.

33. J. K. McKee et al., "Predicting Biodiversity Threats."

34. N. Myers, R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. Mittermeier, G.A.B. da Fonseca, and J. Kent, "Biodiversity Hotspots for Conservation Priorities," Nature 403 (2000), 853.

35. Meyers et al., "Biodiversity Hotspots."

36. R. P. Cincotta and R. Engelman, Nature's Place: Human Population and the Future of Biological Diversity (Washington, D.C.: Population Action International, 2000).

37. Meyers et al., "Biodiversity Hotspots."

38. The Lorax by Theodor Seuss Geisel.

39. J. Liu, M. Linderman, Z. Ouyang, L. An, J. Yang, and H. Zhang, "Ecological Degradation in Protected Areas: The Case of Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas," Science 292 (2001), 98-100. The point remains the same even though Wolong is atypical of China's panda reserves, according to C. J. Loucks, Z. Lu, E. Dinerstein, H. Wang, D. M. Olson, C. Zhu, and D. Wang, "Giant Pandas in a Changing Landscape," Science 294 (2001), 1465. These authors also emphasize the efforts needed to save China's 1,100 remaining wild pandas.

6. The Great Restrictive Law

1. Khakibos is Bidens pilosa, "bi-dens" referring to the two "teeth" of the black jacks. Its cousin, Bidens formosa, is commonly known as cosmos, a pretty flower — but one that is also invasive to South Africa.

2. P. D. Tyson, Climatic Change and Variability in Southern Africa (Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1987).

3. Tilman etal., "Forecasting."

4. O. E. Sala, F. S. Chapin II, J. J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, E. Huber-Sanwald, L. F. Huenneke, R. B. Jackson, A. Kinzig, R. Leemans, D. M. Lodge, H. A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, N. L. Poff, M. T. Sykes, B. H. Walker, M. Walker, and D. H. Wall, "Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100," Science 287 (2000), 1770-1774.

5. D. J. Bender, T. A. Contreras, and L. Fahrig, "Habitat Loss and Population Decline: A Meta-analysis of the Patch Size Effect," Ecology 79 (1998), 517-533.

6. J. G. Fleagle, Primate Adaptation and Evolution (San Diego: Academic Press, 1999), 245.

7. Y. Baskin, "A Sickening Situation: Emerging Pathogens Pose a Threat to Wildlife," Natural History 109 (2000), 24-27.

192 a Notes to Pages 117-129

9. C. Gascon, G. B. Williamson, and G.A.B. da Fonsecea, "Receding Forest Edges and Vanishing Reserves," Science 288 (2000), 1356-1358.

10. T. A. Gavin, P. W. Sherman, E. Yensen, and B. May, "Population Genetic Structure of the Northern Idaho Ground Squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus')," Journal of Mammalogy 80 (1999), 156-168.

11. Drury, Chance and Change.

12. T. Wilkinson, "Prometheus Unbound," Nature Conservancy 51 (2001), 12-20.

13. M. L. Rosenzweig, "Loss of Speciation Rate Will Impoverish Future Diversity," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 98 (2001), 5404. For a complete analysis see also S. L. Pimm, The Balance of Nature? Ecological Issues in the Conservation of Species and Communities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991).

14. G. Cowlishaw, "Predicting the Pattern of Decline of African Primate Diversity: An Extinction Debt from Historical Deforestation," Conservation Biology 13 (1999), 1183-1193.

15. Soule, "What Do We Really Know," 112.

16. D. Ferber, "Human Diseases Threaten Great Apes," Science 289 (2000), 1277-1278.

17. Harvard biologist Stephen Palumbi notes that we increase the evolutionary rate not only of diseases but also of invasive species that quickly adapt to new environments, fish that evolve to escape our nets, and more. S. R. Palumbi, "Humans as the World's Greatest Evolutionary Force," Science 293 (2001), 1786-1790.

18. R. M. Rolland, G. Hausfater, B. Marshall, and S. B. Levy, "Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria in Wild Primates: Increased Prevalence in Baboons (Papio cynocephalus) Feeding on Human Refuse," Applied and Environmental Microbiology 49 (1985), 791-794. But see also E. Routman, R. D. Miller, J. Phillips-Conroy, and D. L. Hartl, "Antibiotic Resistance and Population Structure in Escherichia coli from Free-Ranging African Yellow Baboons (Pa-pio cynocephalus)," Applied and Environmental Microbiology 50 (1985), 749-754, who found no such effect among a different baboon population.

19. M. Gilliver, M. Bennett, M. Begon, S. Hazel, and C. Hart, "Enterobacteria: Antibiotic Resistance Found in Wild Rodents," Nature 401 (1999), 233-234.

20. G. H. Boettner, J. S. Elkinton, and C. J. Boettner, "Effects of a Biological Control Introduction on Three Nontarget Native Species of Saturniid Moths," Conservation Biology 14 (2000), 1798-1806.

21. M. Enserink, "Biological Invaders Sweep In," Science 285 (1999), 1834-1836.

22. Enserink, "Biological Invaders."

23. J. Weiner, The Beak of the Finch: Evolution in Real Time (London: Vintage, 1995).

24. Information on the gray duck, spotted owl, and hartebeest/blesbok comes from J. M. Rhymer and D. Simberloff, "Extinction by Hybridization and Introgression," Annual Review of Ecological Systems 27 (1996), 83-109.

25. For a riveting discussion of the wolf problem, see A. Chase, Playing God in Yellowstone: The Destruction of America's First National Park (San Diego: Harcourt Brace, 1987).

26. For the trout, see H. A. Mooney and E. E. Cleland, "The Evolutionary Impact of Invasive Species," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 98 (2001), 5446-5451. For homogenization, seeF. J. Rahel,"HomogenizationofFish Faunas across the United States," Science 288 (2000), 854-856.

27. Vitousek et al., "Human Domination"; T. J. Crowley, "Causes of Climate Change of the Past 1000 Years," Science 290 (2000), 270-277; P. A. Stott, S.F.B. Tett, G. S. Jones, M. R. Allen, J.F.B. Mitchell, and G. J. Jenkins, "External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings," Science 290 (2000), 2133-2137; S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J. Wang, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, and A. J. Broccoli, "Anthropogenic Warming of the Earth's Climate System, Science 292 (2001), 267-270; T. P. Barnett, D. W.

Pierce, and R. Schnur, "Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World's

Oceans," Science 292 (2001), 270-274.

28. F. Drake, Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change (London: Arnold, 2000).

29. Sala et al., "Global Biodiversity Scenarios."

30. K. Krajick, "Arctic Life, on Thin Ice," Science 291 (2001), 424-425.

31. E. S. Vrba, "Mammals as a Key to Evolutionary Theory," Journal of Mammalogy 73 (1992), 1-28.

32. Gelada baboons are also under threat because the expanding human population wants to exterminate them in order to control disease.

33. P. R. Epstein, "Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?" Scientific American 283 (2000), 50-57.

34. D. J. Rogers and S. E. Randolf, "The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World," Science 289 (2000), 1763-1766.

35. Krajick, "Arctic Life."

36. J. R. Etterson and R. G. Shaw, "Constraint to Adaptive Evolution in Response to Global Warming," Science 294 (2001), 151-154.

37. M. C. Rutherford, G. F. Midgley, W. J. Bond, L. W. Powrie, R. Roberts, and J. Allsopp, "Plant Biodiversity," in G. Kiker, ed., Climate Change Impacts in Southern Africa: Report to the National Climate Change Committee (Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2000).

38. S. L. LaDeau and J. S. Clark, "Rising CO2 Levels and the Fecundity of Forest Trees," Science 292 (2001), 95-98.

7. Good to the Last Drop

1. P. H. Gleick, "Making Every Drop Count," Scientific American 284 (2001), 41.

2. P. S. Levin and M. H. Schiewe, "Preserving Salmon Biodiversity," American Scientist 89 (2001), 220-227.

3. R. A. Kerr, "West's Energy Woes Threaten Salmon Runs," Science 291 (2001), 14701471.

4. J.B.C. Jackson, M. X. Kirby, W. H. Berger, K. A. Bjorndal, L. W. Botsford, B. J. Bourque, R. H. Bradbury, R. Cooke, J. Erlandson, J. A. Estes, T. P. Hughes, S. Kidwell, C. B. Lange, H. S. Lenihan, J. M. Pandolfi, C. H. Peterson, R. S. Steneck, M. J. Tegner, and R. R. Warner, "Historical Overfishing and the Recent Collapse of Coastal Ecosystems," Science 293 (2001), 629-638.

5. S. McKinnell and A. J. Thomson, "Recent Events Concerning Atlantic Salmon Escapees in the Pacific," Journal of Marine Science 54 (1997), 1221-1225.

6. I was surprised to learn that the Cuyahoga River also burned in 1952!

7. Information on the BWWA comes from M. Heinselman, The Boundary Waters Wilderness Ecosystem (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1996).

8. C. L. Dybas, "Aliens," Wildlife Conservation 104 (2001), 56-60.

9. Enserink, "Biological Invaders."

10. Jackson et al., "Historical Overfishing."

11. R. L. Naylor, R. J. Goldburg, J. H. Primavera, N. Kautsky, M.C.M. Beveridge, J. Clay, C. Folke, J. Lubchenco, H. A. Mooney, and M. Troell, "Effect of Aquaculture on World Fish Supplies," Nature 405 (2000), 1017-1024.

12. Naylor etal., "Effect of Aquaculture," 1018.

13. R. L. Naylor, S. L. Williams, and D. R. Strong, "Aquaculture: A Gateway for Exotic Species," Science 294 (2001), 1655-1656.

194 a Notes to Pages 144-155

14. P. Colinvaux, Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare: An Ecologist's Perspective (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1978), 96.

15. D. Suzuki, The Sacred Balance: Rediscovering Our Place in Nature (Vancouver: Greystone Books, 1997), 80.

16. A. Goudie, The Human Impact on the Natural Environment, third edition (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1990).

17. G. Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science 162 (1968), 1244.

18. D. Martindale, "Sweating the Small Stuff," Scientific American 284 (2001), 52-53.

19. Tilman etal., "Forecasting."

20. Cohen, How Many People.

21. C. Brain, "Water Gathering by Baboons in the Namib Desert," South African Journal of Science 84 (1988), 590-591.

22. Gleick, "Making Every Drop Count."

23. C. J. Vörösmarty, P. Green, J. Salisbury, and R. B. Lammers, "Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth," Science 289 (2000), 284-288.

24. Vörösmarty et al., "Gobal Water Resources," 287.

8. Biodiversity in Action

1. For further explanation read McKee, Riddled Chain.

2. A. Moorehead, Darwin and the Beagle (New York: Harper & Row, 1969), 57.

3. Myers et al., "Biodiversity Hotspots."

4. S. L. Pimm, M. Ayres, A. Balmford, G. Branch, K. Brandon, T. Brooks, R. Bustamante, R. Constanza, R. Cowling, L. M. Curran, A. Dobson, S. Farber, G.A.B. da Fonseca, C. Gascon, R. Kitching, J. McNeely, T. Lovejoy, R. A. Mittermeier, N. Myers, J. A. Patz,

B. Raffle, D. Rapport, P. Raven, C. Roberts, J. P. Rodriguez, A. B. Rylands, C. Tucker,

C. Safina, C. Samper, M.L.J. Stiassny, J. Spriatna, D. H. Wall, and D. Wilcove, "Can We Defy Nature's End?" Science 293 (2001), 2207-2208.

5. N. Myers, "The World's Forests and Their Ecosystem Services," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 215-236; see also J. Q. Chambers, N. Higuchi, E. S. Tribuzy, and S. E. Tru-bore, "Carbon Sink for a Century," Nature 410 (2001), 429.

6. P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, "The Value of Biodiversity," Ambio 21 (1992), 219-226.

7. N. Myers, "Biodiversity's Genetic Library," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 255-273.

8. I put "natural" in quotes, because all genes are natural, and agriculture has been "unnatural" (read human-dominated) since its origins ten thousand years ago.

9. O. E. Sala and J. M. Paruelo, "Ecosystem Services in Grasslands," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 237-252.

10. Y. Luo, S. Wan, D. Hui, and L. L. Wallace, "Acclimatization of Soil Respiration to Warming in a Tall Grass Prairie," Nature 413 (2001), 622-625.

11. Y. Baskin, The Work of Nature: How the Diversity of Life Sustains Us (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997).

12. Sala and Paruelo, "Ecosystem Services in Grasslands," 247-248.

13. In 1992 dollars. D. Pimentel, C. Harvey, P. Resosudarmo, K. Sinclair, D. Kurz, M. Mc-nair, S. Crist, L. Shpritz, L. Fitton, R. Saffouri, and R. Blair, "Environmental and Economic Costs of Soil Erosion and Conservation Benefits," Science 267 (1995), 1117-1123.

14. The words come from a letter allegedly written to President Franklin Pierce in 1855, but the letter has not resurfaced, and there is historical debate as to whether Chief Seattle wrote the words. That should not detract from the power of the words here.

15. C. H. Peterson and J. Lubchenco, "Marine Ecosystem Services," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 177-194; S. Postel and S. Carpenter, "Freshwater Ecosystem Services," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 195-214.

16. M. Fischetti, "Drowning New Orleans," Scientific American 284 (2001), 76-85.

17. R. G. Torricelli, Quotations for Public Speakers: A Historical, Literary, and Political Anthology (New Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers University Press, 2001), 74.

18. R. M. Cowling, R. Costanza, and S. I. Higgins, "Services Supplied by South African Fyn-bos Ecosystems," in G. C. Daily, ed., Nature's Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1997), 345-362.

19. With all due respect to Paul and Anne Ehrlich, this is my remake of their "rivet hypothesis," in which they compare species in ecosystems to rivets holding on the wing of a plane. The plane might fly with some missing rivets, but one more loss could lead to a crash. It is just difficult to tell what may be the critical number of rivets ... or species. P. R. Ehrlich and A. Ehrlich, Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Species (New York: Random House, 1981).

20. Actually Van Gogh cut off his pinna, which gathers sound, not the ear, which hears it. Like some body parts, and some species, it proved to be expendable.

21. J. H. Lawton and V K. Brown, "Redundancy in Ecosystems," in E.-D. Schulze and H. A. Mooney, eds., Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1993), 255-270.

22. The scientific names are Saguinus fuscicollis and Saguinus imperator respectively. See J. Terborgh, Five New World Primates: A Study in Comparative Ecology (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1983).

23. Heinselman, Boundary Waters.

24. Keystone species may be categorized into predators, herbivores, pathogens and parasites, competitors, mutualists, earth movers, and system processors, as by W. J. Bond, "Keystone Species," in E.-D. Schulze and H. A. Mooney, eds., Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1993), 237-253.

25. R. T. Paine, "Food Web Complexity and Species Diversity," American Naturalist 100 (1966), 65-75; R. T. Paine, "The Pisaster-Tegula Interaction: Prey Patches, Predator Food Preference, and Intertidal Community Structure," Ecology 50 (1969), 950-961.

26. J. A. Estes and J. F. Palmisano, "Sea Otters: Their Role in Structuring Nearshore Communities," Science 185 (1974), 1058-1060.

27. C. G. Jones, J. H. Lawton, and M. Shachak, "Organisms as Ecosystem Engineers," Oikos 69 (1994), 373-386.

28. M. E. Power, D. Tilman, J. A. Estes, B. A. Menge, W. J. Bond, L. S. Mills, G. Daily, J. C. Castilla, J. Lubchenco, and R. T. Paine, "Challenges in the Quest for Keystones: Identifying Keystone Species Is Difficult but Essential to Understanding How Loss of Species Will Affect Ecosystems," Bioscience 46 (1996), 609- 620.

29. As noted by Jones et al., "Organisms as Ecosystem Engineers."

30. Darwin, Origin of Species.

31. The term "biodiversity" came from the National Forum on BioDiversity in Washington, D.C., held in 1986. E. O. Wilson, "Introduction," in M. L. Reaka-Kudla, D. E. Wilson, and E. O. Wilson, eds., Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources (Washington, D.C.: Joseph Henry Press, 1997), 1-3.

32. R. B. Waide, M. R. Willig, D. F. Steiner, G. Mittleback, L. Gough, I. Dodson, G. P. Juday, and R. Parmenter, "The Relationship between Productivity and Species Richness," Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 30 (1999), 257-300.

33. D. M. Post, M. L. Pace, and N. C. Hairston, Jr., "Ecosystem Size Determines Food-Chain Length in Lake," Nature 405 (2000), 1047-1049; Rosenzweig, Species Diversity.

34. Note that the results here are based on laboratory studies. R. Kassen, A. Buckling, G. Bell, and P. B. Rainey, "Diversity Peaks at Intermediate Productivity in a Laboratory Microcosm," Nature 406 (2000), 508-512.

35. D. Tilman, D. Wedin, and J. Knops, "Productivity and Sustainability Influenced by Biodiversity in Grassland Ecosystems," Nature 379 (1996), 718-720.

36. Michael Huston quoted by J. Kaiser, "Rift over Biodiversity Divides Ecologists," Science 289 (2000), 1282-1283.

37. For example, see M. A. Huston, "Hidden Treatments in Ecological Experiments: Reevaluating the Ecosystem Function of Biodiversity," Oceologia 110 (1997), 449-460.

38. A. Hector, B. Schmid, C. Beierkuhnlein, M. C. Caldeira, M. Diemer, P. G. Dimitra-kopoulos, J. A. Finn, H. Freitas, P. S. Giller, J. Good, R. Harris, P. Högberg, K. Huss-Danell, J. Joshi, A. Jumponen, C. Körner, P. W. Leadley, M. Loreau, A. Minns, C.P.H. Mulder, G. O'Donovan, S. J. Otway, J. S. Pereira, A. Prinz, D. J. Read, M. Scherer-Lorenzen, E.-D. Schulze, A.-S.D. Siamantziouras, E. M. Spehn, A. C. Terry, A. Y. Troumbis, F. I. Woodward, S. Yachi, and J. H. Lawton, "Plant Diversity and Productivity Experiments in European Grasslands," Science 285 (1999), 1123-1127; M. Loreau and A. Hector, "Partitioning Selection and Complementarity in Biodiversity Experiments," Nature 412 (2001), 72-76; D. Tilman, P. B. Reich, J. Knops, D. Wedin, T. Mielke, and C. Lehman, "Diversity and Productivity in a Long-Term Grassland Experiment," Science 294 (2001), 843-845.

39. M. Loreau, S. Naeem, P. Inchausti, J. Bengtsson, J. P. Grime, A. Hector, D. U. Hooper, M. A. Huston, D. Raffaelli, B. Schmid, D. Tilman, and D. A. Wardle, "Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: Current Knowledge and Future Challenges," Science 294 (2001), 804-808.

40. L. Tangley, "High CO2 Levels May Give Fast-Growing Trees an Edge," Science 292 (2001), 36-37.

41. P. B. Reich, J. Knops, D. Tilman, J. Craine, D. Ellsworth, M. Tjoelker, T. Lee, D. Wedin, S. Naeem, D. Bahauddin, G. Hendrey, S. Jose, K. Wrage, J. Goth, and W. Bengston, "Plant Diversity Enhances Ecosystem Responses to Elevated CO2 and Nitrogen Deposition," Nature 410 (2001), 809-812.

42. In case you didn't guess, it was the plot with sixteen plants that "won."

43. Aspirin is a modified form of the salicin Hippocrates ground from willow bark and given to ease pain.

44. Bear root is Ligusicum porteri, also known as osha.

45. R. Andrews, "Western Science Learns from Native Culture," The Scientist 6 (1992), 6.

46. X. Valderrama, J. G. Robinson, A. B. Attygalle, and T. Eisner, "Seasonal Anointment with Millipedes in a Wild Primate: A Chemical Defense against Insects?" Journal of Chemical Ecology 26 (2000), 2781-2790.

47. Y. Zhu, H. Chen, J. Fan, Y. Wang, Y. Li, J. Chen, J. Fan, S. Yang, L. Hu, H. Leung, T. W Mew, P. S. Teng, Z. Wang, and C. G. Mindt, "Genetic Diversity and Disease Control in Rice," Nature 406 (2000), 718-722.

48. J. W. Kirchner and A. Weil, "Delayed Biological Recovery from Extinctions throughout the Fossil Record," Nature 401 (2000), 177-180.

49. J. E. Richardson, F. M. Weitz, M. F. Fay, Q.C.B. Cronk, H. P. Linder, G. Reeves, and M. W. Chase, "Rapid and Recent Origin of Species Richness in the Cape Flora of South Africa," Nature 412 (2001), 181-183.

50. Wilson, Diversity of Life, 330.

51. J.-M. Claverie, "What If There Are Only 30,000 Human Genes?" Science 291 (2001), 1255-1257. There is every reason to believe that as we learn more, the known number of human genes will change.

9. EpiLogue: The Keystone Species with a ChoicE

1. R. Bailey, "The Progress Explosion: Permanently Escaping the Malthusian Trap," in R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2000), 13.

2. S. Molnar and I. M. Molnar, Environmental Change and Human Survival: Some Dimensions of Human Ecology (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 2000), 248.

3. These are rough numbers, but I tried to keep them reasonably conservative. There are over 130 million passenger cars in the United States, and I assumed that each day only 20 million would do excess driving to find a closer parking place while shopping or at work. I had each of them go three hundred yards (or idle for a minute or two while waiting for another car to pull out), at twenty miles per gallon. That results in over two million barrels of gasoline (petrol) per year. Based on statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on each country's daily petroleum consumption, that results in 4.46 days in South Africa, 62.1 days in Zimbabwe, and 82.04 days in Georgia.

4. W. R. Catton, Jr., Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1982).

5. C. Bright, "Anticipating Environmental 'Surprise,'" in L. R. Brown et al., eds., State of the World 2000 (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 2000), 22-38.

6. D. H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth (New York: Signet, 1972).

7. Lutz et al., "End of World Population Growth."

8. P. R. Ehrlich and A. H. Ehrlich, "The Population Explosion: Why We Should Care and What We Should Do about It," Environmental Law 27 (1997), 1187-1208.

9. Hardin, "Tragedy of the Commons," 1247.

10. One must be careful with such contributions — every day I get enough solicitations in the mail from conservation organizations that I wonder how many trees have been felled just to get the word out. There has to be a better way.

11. J. K. Smail, "Beyond Population Stabilization: The Case for Dramatically Reducing Global Human Numbers," Politics and the Life Sciences 16 (1997), 183.

12. Smail, "Beyond Population Stabilization," 190.

13. T. Dyson, "Better Focus on the Practical Challenges Posed by Population Growth (or, to Create a Forest You Must Plant Trees)," Politics and the Life Sciences 16 (1997), 195-197.

14. Cohen, How Many People.

15. Again I stole a gem of an expression from Paul Ehrlich's radio interview (see note 36 to chapter 4).

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