Mm

4.26 "Sun melody.'' Estimate of TSI based on variable solar cycle duration 183

4.27 Comparison of solar cycle duration with temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere 184

4.28 Monthly mean of sunspot number and filtered sunspot number 185

4.29 Northern Hemisphere temperature compared with filtered sunspot cycle duration 186

4.30 Comparison of sunspot cycle duration with frequency of aurora occurrence . 186

4.31 Dependence of Northern Hemisphere temperature variance on solar cycle duration 187

4.32 Reconstruction of TSI using cycle duration or sunspot indices 188

4.33 Modeled total solar irradiance based on sunspot decay rates 189

4.34 Comparison of Northern Hemisphere temperature with modeled TSI 190

4.35 Variation of measured extraterrestrial TSI and calculated Fs since 1978 191

4.36 Comparison of the predicted TSI (from Fs) with the actual TSI 192

4.37 Cosmo-nuclide production based on 10Be in polar ice and 14C in tree rings . 195

4.38 Modeled TSI during the period ad 850 to the present color

4.39 Atmospheric radiocarbon level 14C derived from tree ring chronologies 196

4.40 Sunspot numbers reconstructed from different cosmogenic isotopes color

4.41 Reconstructed sunspot number from 14C data since 9500 bc 198

4.42 Historical variation of TSI for three assumed differences between TSI at the

MM vs. TSI today 200

4.43 Historical variation of temperature for three assumed differences between TSI

at the MM vs. TSI today color

4.44 Predicted temperature anomaly for last millennium 201

5.1 Heat flows for a hypothetical Earth with no atmosphere 213

5.2 Simplistic model of effect of greenhouse gases on Earth temperature 214

5.3 Heat flows in the Earth-atmosphere system 216

5.4 Comparison of spectral distribution of upward irradiance from the surface with that at the top of the atmosphere 217

5.5 Downward radiant forcing 218

5.6 Comparison of various models for albedo of the Earth 224

5.7 The United States at night 229

5.8 Changes in the overall heat content of the oceans 239

5.9 Long-term SOI Index 243

5.10 SOI Index since 1950 244

5.11 Integrated SOI Anomaly since 1950 244

5.12 Solar irradiance measured at Mauna Loa following volcanic eruptions . . . . 249

5.13 Aerosol optical depth following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption 250

5.14 The relationship between major volcanic eruptions and hemispheric temperature variations 250

6.1 Measured CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa 264

6.2 Atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past 200 years 265

6.3 CO2 concentration during the Holocene from ice cores 265

6.4 Historical variation of CO2 concentration during the past four glacial cycles 266

6.5 Rough estimates of carbon storage and annual carbon fluxes 267

6.6 Reconstruction of paleo-atmospheric CO2 levels based on stomatal frequency of fossil needles 275

6.7 Range of projected future annual CO2 emissions from various models 278

6.8 Various models for future CO2 concentration in the 21st century 279

6.9 Carbon emissions per year needed to stabilize CO2 concentration in the atmosphere at various levels of ppm 279

6.10 Scenarios for future atmospheric forcing by CO2 build-up 281

6.11 Range of projected future temperature increases 282

6.12 Projection of world population made by IS92a 283

6.13 Projection by IS92a of kilograms of carbon emitted per Watt-year of energy generated in the 21st century 284

6.14

Energy mix for generation of electric power in the 21st century assumed by

IS92a projection

285

6.15

Estimated cumulative production of hydrocarbons and coal to date, and

projected ultimate production by 2100

287

6.16

Estimated annual production of hydrocarbons and coal to date, and projected

ultimate production by 2100

287

6.17

Comparison of cumulative CO2 emissions based on fossil fuel constraints with

the range of IPCC projections

288

7.1a

Indication of 1,500-year cycle during the Holocene

296

7.1b

Ice raft data during the Holocene

296

7.1c

Ice raft data during recent millennia

297

7.2

Variation of atmospheric methane concentration over past ~25 years

298

7.3

The mean sea level record over the period 1904-2003

301

7.4

A stream of snowmelt cascades down a moulin on the Greenland ice sheet

during a recent summer

color

7.5

Record of atmospheric CO2, CH4, and temperature extracted from Antarctic

ice core

310

7.6

Modeled extent of Greenland ice at last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and

present

color

7.7

Modeled extent of Antarctica ice at last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and

the present

color

7.8

The ultimate hockey stick view of global temperature history and future . . .

color

A.1

Comparison of timing of retreat of glaciers with timing of carbon emissions

343

A.2

Comparison of timing of sea level rise with timing of carbon emissions . . . .

347

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