Conclusions

This paper has described some aspects of the currently most important and most recent developments in the field of the prediction of extreme and hazardous event. To pursue this end, a panoramic view of the techniques which are currently in development by the meteo-hydrological community has been described and summarized. The improvement of modelling skills in the prediction of natural hazards can be successful if several aspects of contemporary meteo-hydrological science are improved. Data availability is a key factor, as it allows the models to be tested and intercomparisons to be made. Model parameterizations, especially those related to the surface layer and to the soil surface, must be continuously developed to improve the physical mechanisms embedded in the code (as in the MAP experiment). Moreover, the quality of a deterministic meteorological forecast can be improved by running the same model but over a coarse scale in different configurations (EPS), which will give a better description of the model output.

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