List of illustrations

1

The earth's annual

6

Variation of the earth's

global mean energy

surface temperature

30

balance 5

7

Global warming

2

Greenhouse gases and

and the media

32

temperature for the last

four glacial cycles

8

The four myths of

recorded in the Vostok ice

nature

37

core 7

9

Four myths of human

3

Indicators of the human

nature

39

influence on the

atmosphere composition

10

Four rationalities

40

during the industrial

era 9

11

Combined global

warming scenarios

4a

CO2 emissions from

with myths of human

industrial processes 12

nature

41

4b

CO2 emissions from

12

The anatomy of past

land-use change 12

climatic changes

44

5

Possible climate system

13

Northern Hemisphere

responses to a

temperature

linear-forcing 18

reconstruction for the

last thousand years

47

14 Global distribution of meteorological stations

23 A simplified version of the present carbon cycle 72

15 Changes in precipitation over land 54

16 Estimated sea-level rise 1910-1990

17 Mozambique floods of 2000 59

24 Global, annual-mean radiative forcings 74

25 The global climate of the 21st century 76

26 Flooding of Bangladesh in 1998 86

18 Ice core records showing CO 2 in phase with Antarctic warming 61

19 Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures

20 Schematic of observed variations of the a) temperature indicators and b) hydrological and storm-related indicators 64

21 Locations at which systematic long-term studies meet stringent criteria documenting recent climate change impacts on physical and biological systems 66

22 The development of climate models, past, present, and future 69

27 El Nino - Southern Oscillation 92

28 The deep circulation of the ocean 106

29 Different possible circulation of the deep ocean 108

30 Future sea level changes

31 Bifurcation of the climate system 111

32 Met office model of CO2 concentration and mean temperature over time 115

33 Five different cost scenarios 129

34 Climate change risks with increasing global temperatures 135

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