EpiSims animations depict simulated outbreaks and the effects of official interventions. In the still frames below, vertical lines indicate the number of infected people present at a location, and color shows the percentage of them who are contagious. In both scenarios shown, smallpox is released at a university in central Portland, but the attack is not detected until victims start experiencing symptoms 10 days later. The left-hand images show no public health response as a baseline. In the right-hand images, infected and exposed individuals are targeted for vaccination and quarantine. Results from a series of such simulations (bottom) show that people withdrawing to their homes early in an outbreak makes the biggest difference in death toll. The speed of official response, regardless of the strategy chosen, proved to be the second most important factor.
DAY 1: UNDETECTED SMALLPOX RELEASE
INFECTED: 1,281 DEAD: 0
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