Sir John Houghton

Wed, 19 Apr 2017 | Global Warming

¡¡Jf Cambridge fejP UNIVERSITY PRESS

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Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521882569 © J. T. Houghton 1994, 1997, 2004, 2009

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First published in print format 2009

ISBN-13 978-0-511-53365-5 ISBN-13 978-0-521-88256-9 ISBN-13 978-0-521-70916-3

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hardback paperback

To my grandchildren, Daniel, Hannah, Esther, Max, Jonathan, Jemima and Sam and their generation

Contents

Preface page xvii

1 Global warming and climate change 1 Is the climate changing? 2 The last 30 years 2 El Niño events 7 The effect of volcanic eruptions on temperature extremes 10 Vulnerability to change 10 What is global warming? 13 Adaptation and mitigation 14 Uncertainty and response 15 Questions 16 Further reading and reference 17

2 The greenhouse effect 18 How the Earth keeps warm 19 The greenhouse effect 20

Pioneers of the science of the greenhouse effect 23

Mars and Venus 27

The 'runaway' greenhouse effect 28

The enhanced greenhouse effect 29

Summary 31

Questions 32

Preface

Global Warming is a topic that increasingly occupies the attention of the world. Is it really happening? If so, how much of it is due to human activities? How far will it be possible to adapt to changes of climate? What action to combat it can or should we take? How much will it cost? Or is it already too late for useful action? This book sets out to provide answers to all these questions by providing the best and latest information available.

I was privileged to chair or co-chair the Scientific Assessments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its inception in 1988 until 2002. During this period the IPCC published three major comprehensive reports - in 1990, 1995 and 2001 - that have influenced and informed those involved in climate change research and those concerned with the impacts of climate change. In 2007, a fourth assessment report was published. It is the extensive new material in this latest report that has provided the basis for the substantial revision necessary to update this fourth edition.

The IPCC reports have been widely recognised as the most authoritative and comprehensive assessments on a complex scientific subject ever produced by the world's scientific community. On the completion of the first assessment in 1990, I was asked to present it to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's cabinet - the first time an overhead projector had been used in the Cabinet Room in Number 10 Downing Street. In 2005, the work of the IPCC was cited in a joint statement urging action on climate change presented to the G8 meeting in that year by the Academies of Science of all G8 countries plus China, India and Brazil. The world's top scientists could not have provided stronger approval of the IPCC's work. An even wider endorsement came in 2007 when the IPCC was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

Many books have been published on global warming. My choice of material has been much influenced by the many lectures I have given in recent years to professional, student and general audiences. The strengths of this book are that it is:

• up-to-date with the latest reliable, accurate and understandable information about all aspects of the global warming problem for students, professionals and interested or concerned citizens.

• accessible to both scientists and non-scientists. Although there are many numbers in the book - I believe quantification to be essential - there are no mathematical equations. Some important technical material is included in boxes.

• comprehensive, as it moves through the basic science of global warming, impacts on human communities and ecosystems, economic, technological and ethical considerations and policy options for action both national and international.

• appropriate as a general text for students, from high-school level up to university graduate. Questions and problems for students to consider and to test their understanding of the material are included in each chapter.

• Its simple and effective visual presentation of the vast quantities of data available on climate change ensures that readers can see how conclusions are made, without being overwhelmed. Illustrations are available online.

Over the 20 years since the inception of the IPCC, our understanding of climate change has much increased and significant changes in climate due to human activities have been experienced. Further, studies of the feedbacks that determine the climate response have shown an increasing likelihood of enhanced response, so leading over these years to greater concern about the future impact of climate change on both human populations and ecosystems. Can much be done to alleviate the impact or mitigate future climate change? Later chapters of the book address this question and demonstrate that the technology is largely available to support urgent and affordable action. They also point to the many other benefits that will accrue to all sectors of society as the necessary action is taken. However, what seems lacking as yet is the will to take that action.

As I complete this revised edition I want to express my gratitude, first to those who inspired me and helped with the preparation of the earlier editions, with many of whom I was also involved in the work of the IPCC or of the Hadley Centre. I also acknowledge those who have assisted with the material for this edition or who have read and helpfully commented on my drafts, in particular, Fiona Carroll, Jim Coakley, Peter Cox, Simon Desjardin, Michael Hambery, Marc Humphreys, Chris Jones, Linda Livingstone, Jason Lowe, Tim Palmer, Martin Parry, Ralph Sims, Susan Solomon, Peter Smith, Chris West, Sue Whitehouse and Richard Wood. My thanks are also due to Catherine Flack, Matt Lloyd, Anna-Marie Lovett and Jo Endell-Cooper of Cambridge University Press for their competence and courtesy as they steered the book through its gestation and production.

Finally, I owe an especial debt to my wife, Sheila, who gave me strong encouragement to write the book in the first place, and who has continued her encouragement and support through the long hours of its production.

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