Seasonal forecasting

So far short-term forecasts of detailed weather have been considered. After 20 days or so they run out of skill. What about further into the future? Although we cannot expect to forecast the weather in detail, is there any possibility of predicting the average weather, say, a few months ahead? As this section shows, it is possible for some parts of the world, because of the influence of the distribution of ocean surface temperatures on the atmosphere's behaviour. For seasonal forecasting it is no longer the initial state of the atmosphere about which detailed knowledge is required. Rather, we need to know the conditions at the surface and how they might be changing.

Forecast range (days)
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