Notes For Chapter

1 Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., Ephraums, J. J. (eds.) 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessments. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 365; Executive Summary, p. xii. Similar but more elaborate statements are in the 1995, 2001 and 2007 IPCC Reports.

2 For a detailed description of how the output from climate models can be combined with other information in climate studies see Mearns, L. O., Hulme, M. et al. 2001. Climate scenario development. In Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 13.

3 For an overview of the history of the IPCC see Bolin, B. 2007. A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

4 Houghton et al. (eds.) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment; Tegart, W. J. McG., Sheldon, G. W., Griffiths, D. C. (eds.) 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service.

Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K. (eds.) 1996.

Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H. (eds.) 1996. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bruce, J., Hoesung Lee, Haites, E. (eds.) 1996. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D.J., White, K. S. (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Metz, B., Davidson, O., Swart, R., Pan, J. (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M. M. B., Miller, H. L. Jr, Chen, Z. (eds.), 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., Hanson, C. (eds.) 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Metz, B., Davidson, O., Bosch, D., Dave, R., Meyer, L. (eds.) 2007. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution ofWorking Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

5 See also Houghton, J. T. 2002. An overview of the IPCC and its process of science assessment. In Hester, R. E., Harrison, R. M. (eds.) Global Environmental Change, Issues in Environmental Science and Technology, No. 17. Cambridge: Royal Society of Chemistry.

6 For an account of the 'denial industry' see Monbiot, G. 2007. Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning. London: Allen Lane, Chapter 2.

7 See Climate Change Controversies: A Simple Guide published by the Royal Society, http://royalsociety. org/document.asp?id=6229

8 The Academies of Science 2005 statement can be found on http://royalsociety.org/document. asp?id=3222.

9 Defined on page 143 in Chapter 6.

10 Address to the Energy and Environment Ministerial Round Table, 15 March 2005.

11 See Section 11.2.2, in Metz et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.

12 For more information, see Lauder, B., Thompson, M. (eds.) 2008. Geoscale Engineering to Avert Dangerous Climate Change. London: Royal Society (an issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society).

13 Weyant, J. et al. Integrated assessment of climate change. In Bruce et al. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions, Chapter 10; also, Chapters 2 and 3, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007; Impacts.

14 A full discussion of such integrated appraisal can be found in 21st Report of the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1998.

15 Pearce, D. W. et al., Chapter 6, in Bruce et al. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions.

16 Summary for policymakers, in Bruce et al. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions.

17 Chapter 3, page 232, in Metz et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.

18 Cline argues for a low rate (Cline, W. R. 1992. The Economics of Global Warming. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, Chapter 6), as does S. Fankhauser (Valuing Climate Change, London: Earthscan, 1995). Nordhaus (Nordhaus, W. R. 1994. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press) has used rates in the range of 5% to 10%; see also Tol, R. S. J. 1999. The marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. The Energy Journal, 20, 61-8.

19 Dasgupta, P. 2001. Human Well-Being and the Natural Environment. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 184; see also pp. 183-91; see also Markhndya, A., Halsnaes, K. et al. Costing methodologies. Chapter 7, in Metz et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.

20 Stern, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 35-7.

21 Broome, J. 2008. The ethics of climate change. Scientific American, 298, 69-73.

22 Stern, Economics of Climate Change, p. 344.

24 Table SPM 7 and Figure 3.25, in Metz et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.

25 Further detail in Hourcade, J.-C., Shukla, P. et al. 2001. Global regional and national costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation. Chapter 8; in Metz et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; see also Metz et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.

26 For a discussion of this issue see Daly, H. E. 1993. From empty-world economics to full-world economics: a historical turning point in economic development. In Ramakrishna, K., Woodwell, G. M. (eds.) World Forests for the Future. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, pp. 79-91.

A strategy for action to slow and stabilise climate change

Amazon rainforest canopy.

FOLLOWING THE awareness of the problems of climate change aroused by the IPCC scientific assessments, the necessity of international action has been recognised. In particular, an Objective has been agreed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere so as to eventually stabilise the climate. Nations or groups of nations are already pledging to substantial emissions reductions between now and 2050. What has yet to be agreed is the target level of stabilisation. In this chapter I discuss what target levels should be the aim and the actions that will be necessary to achieve them.

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