Notes For Chapter

1 For comprehensive detail about climate change impacts, see Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

2 From Summary for policymakers in, McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O., Leavy, N. A., Dotten, D. J., White, K. S. (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; see also Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

3 See, for instance, Global Environmental Outlook GE04 (UNEP Report). 2007. Nairobi, Kenya; UNEP. See also Goudie, A. 2000. The Human Impact on the Natural Environment, fifth edition. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

4 Bindoff, N., Willebrand, J. et al. Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level, Chapter 5, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

5 Lowe, J. A. Gregory, J. M. 2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, C11014, doi:10.1029/2005JC003421.

6 Christoffersen, P., Hambrey, M. J. 2006. Is the Greenland ice sheet in a state of collapse? Geology Today, 22, 98-103.

7 Hansen, J. et al. 2007. Climate change and trace gases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 1925-54.

8 Pfeffer, W. T., Harper, J. T., O'Neel, S. 2008. Science, 321, 1340-3.

10 Lowe and Gregory 2006.

11 More detailed information is available in Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., et al. Coastal systems and low-lying areas, Chapter 6, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

12 Ibid., Cross-Chapter case studies, C3 Megadeltas.

13 For a comprehensive account of the impact of climate change on Bangladesh see Warrick, R. A., Ahmad, Q. K. (eds.) 1996. The Implications of Climate and Sea Level Change for Bangladesh. Dordrecht: Kluwer.

14 Nicholls, R. J., Mimura, N. 1998. Regional issues raised by sea level rise and their policy implications. Climate Research, 11, 5-18.

15 Broadus, J. M. 1993. Possible impacts of, and adjustments to, sea-level rise: the case of Bangladesh and Egypt. In Warrick, R. A.,

Barrow, E. M., Wigley, T. M. L. (eds.) 1993. Climate and Sea -Level Change: Observations, Projections and Implications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 263-75. Note that, because of variations in the ocean structure, sea-level rise would not be the same everywhere. In Bangladesh it would be somewhat above average (see Gregory, J. M. 1993. Sea level changes under increasing CO2 in a transient coupled ocean-atmosphere experiment. Journal of Climate, 6, 2247-62).

16 See Chapter 4 in Warrick and Ahmad (eds.) The Implications of Climate and Sea Level Change.

17 Broadus, in Warrick et al. (eds.) Climate and Sea-Level Change, pp. 263-75.

18 Milliman, J. D. 1989. Environmental and economic implications of rising sea level and subsiding deltas: the Nile and Bangladeshi examples. Ambio, 18, 340-5.

19 From a report entitled Climate Change due to the Greenhouse Effect and its Implications for China. 1992. Gland, Switzerland: Worldwide Fund for Nature.

20 Day, J. W. et al. 1993. Impacts of sea-level rise on coastal systems with special emphasis on the Mississippi river deltaic plain. In Warrick et al. (eds.) Climate and Sea-Level Change, pp. 276-96.

21 Clayton, K. M. 1993. Adjustment to greenhouse gas induced sea-level rise on the Norfolk coast: a case study. In Warrick et al. (eds.) Climate and Sea-Level Change, pp. 310-21.

22 Nicholls, R.J., Mimura, N. 1998. Regional issues raised by sea-level rise and their policy implications. Climate Research, 11, 5-18. See also de Ronde, J. G. 1993. What will happen to the Netherlands if sea-level rise accelerates? In Warrick et al. (eds.) Climate and Sea-Level Change, pp. 322-35.

23 See Nurse, L., Sem, G. et al. 2001. Small island states. Chapter 17, in McCarthy et al., (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts.

24 Bijlsma, L. 1996. Coastal zones and small islands. In Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H. (eds.) 1996. Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 9.

25 McLean, R. F., Tsyban, A. et al. 2001. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems. In McCarthy et al., (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Chapter 6.

26 From Figure 3.6 in Watson, R. and the Core Writing Team (eds.) 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

27 See Table 11.8 from Shiklomanov, I. A., Rodda, J. C. (eds.) 2003. World Water Resources at the Beginning of the Twenty-first Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

28 Kundzewicz, Z. W. Mata, L. J. et al., Fresh water resources and their management. Chapter 3, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

29 Quoted by Geoffrey Lean in 'Troubled waters', in the colour supplement to the Observer newspaper, 4 July 1993.

31 All but the last are items of high confidence or very high confidence from a list in Box TS.5, p. 44 in the Technical Summary of Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

33 Waggoner, P. E. 1990. Climate Change and US Water Resources. New York: Wiley.

34 See UNCCD website: www.unccd.int/.

36 Crosson, P. R., Rosenberg, N.J. 1989. Strategies for agriculture. Scientific American, 261, September, pp. 78-85.

37 Easterling, W., Aggarwal, P. et al., Executive summary, Chapter 5, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

38 Information in proposal for an International Research Institute for Climate Prediction. Report by Moura, A. D. (ed.) 1992. Prepared for the International Board for the TOGA project. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.

39 See recent study by Battisti D. S. and R. L. Naylor, 2009, Science, 323, 240-4.

40 Reilly, J. et al. 1996. Agriculture in a changing climate. Chapter 13, in Watson et al. (eds.) Climate Change 1995: Impacts.

41 Easterling, W., Aggarwal, P. et al. Chapter 5, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

43 Easterling, W., Aggarwal, P. et al., Chapter 5, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

44 See Global Environmental Outlook 3 (UNEP Report). 2002. London: Earthscan, pp. 63-5; also Global Environmental Outlook 4 (GEO 4). 2007. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP, p. 95

45 Parry, M. et al. 1999. Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9, S51-S67.

46 From Watson et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, paragraph 5.17.

47 Miko, U. F. et al. 1996. Climate change impacts on forests. Chapter 1, in Watson et al., (eds.) Climate Change 1995: Impacts. See also Gitay, H. et al. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services. Chapter 5, Section 5.6.3, in McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts.

48 Gates, D. M. 1993. Climate Change and Its Biological Consequences. Sunderland, Mass.: Sinauer Associates Inc., p. 77.

49 Cox, P. M. et al. 2004. Amazon dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-56.

50 Melillo, J. M. et al. 1996. Terrestrial biotic responses to environmental change and feedbacks to climate. Chapter 9, in Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K. (eds.) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. See also Miko, U. F. et al. 1996. Climate change impacts on forests. Chapter 1, in Watson et al. (eds.) Climate Change 1995: Impacts.

51 Gitay, H. et al. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services. Technical Summary, Section 4.3, in McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts.

52 Detail in Summary for policymakers, in Watson et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, pp. 68-69, paragraph 3.18. Myers, N. et al. 2000. Nature, 403, 853-8 has proposed concentrating conservation effort in selected places with exceptional concentrations of biodiversity. For the problems of estimating the effects of global warming on biodiversity see Botkin, D. B. et al. 2007. Bioscience, 57, 227-36.

53 From Tegart, W.J., McG. Sheldon, G. W., Griffiths, D. C. (eds.) 1990. Climate Change: The

IPCC Impacts Assessment. Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, pp. 6-20. Although made in 1990 this statement remains true in 2007.

54 Sale, P. F. 1999. Nature, 397, 2S-7. More information regarding diversity in corals available on World Resources Institute website: www.wri.org/wri/marine.

55 More information about impact on corals in special section on corals, pp. 8S0-7, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2OO?: Impacts.

56 Turley, C. et al. 2006. Reviewing the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem. In Schellnhuber, H.J. (ed.) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. pp. 6S-70.

57 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G. F. et al. Chapter 4, p. 213 in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2OO?: Impacts.

58 Kalkstein, I. S. 1993. Direct impact in cities. Lancet, 342, 1397-9.

59 Information on India from Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, Tata Energy Research Institute. Information regarding Europe from World Meterological Organization, Geneva.

60 Nicholls, N. 1993. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne disease. Lancet, 342, 1284-S. The El Niño cycle is described in Chapter S.

61 This statement taken from the summary for policymakers, Chapter 9, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2OO?: Impacts.

62 Bulleted list from Box TS6, ibid., Technical Summary. Meaning of asterisks: *** very high confidence (over 90% chance of being correct),

** high confidence (about 80% chance), * medium confidence (about S0% chance).

63 For a fuller discussion on adaptation see section 20.8, ibid.

64 See Global Environmental Outlook 3 (UNEP Report). 2002. London: Earthscan, pp. 274-S.

65 As an example of progress with respect to disaster preparedness, the International Red Cross has formed a Climate Change Unit based in the Netherlands.

66 PAHO Report 1999 Conclusions and Recommendations: Meeting on Revaluation of Preparedness and Response to Hurricanes George and Mitch, quoted in McMichael, A. et al. 2001. Human health. Chapter 9, in McCarthy et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2OO1: Impacts.

67 Global Environmental Outlook 3, p. 272.

68 Stern Review, Chapter 5.

69 Box 7.4, in Parry et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts.

70 Dlugolecki, A. 2006. Thoughts about the impact of climate change on insurance claims. In Climate Change and Disaster Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, www.eetd.lbl.gov/insurance/

71 Studies by Cline, Fankhauser, Nordhaus and Tol presented in Pearce, D. W. et al. 1996. The social costs of climate change. Chapter 6, in Bruce, J., Hoesung Lee, Haites, E. (eds.) 1996. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

72 For equivalent CO2 this is likely to occur around the middle of the twenty-first century; see Chapter 6.

73 Stern Review, Chapter 6.

74 Smith, J. B. et al. Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: a synthesis. Chapter 19, Box 19, in McCarthy et al., (eds.) Climate Change 2001: Impacts.

75 Details in Hope, C. 2005. Integrated Assessment Models. In Helm, D. (ed.), Climate-Change Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 77-98.

76 Stern Review, Chapter 6, pp. 161-2.

78 Myers, N., Kent, J. 1995. Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena. Washington, DC: Climate Institute; also Adger, N., Fankhauser, S. 1993. Economic analysis of the greenhouse effect: optimal abatement level and strategies for mitigation. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 3, 104-19.

79 Adger and Fankhauser 1993.

80 Cline, W. R. 1992. The Economics of Global Warming. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, Chapter 2.

81 Nordhaus, W. D., Boyer, J. 2000. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, pp. 87-91.

82 See, for instance, Pearce, D. W. et al., in Bruce et al. (eds.) Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions.

I HAVE been describing the large changes in climate that are beginning to occur as a result of human activities, and their impact in different parts of the world. But large and devastating changes are likely to be up to a generation away. So why should we be concerned? What responsibility, if any, do we have for the planet as a whole and the great variety of other forms of life that inhabit it, or for future generations of human beings? And does our scientific knowledge in any way match up with other insights, for instance ethical and religious ones, regarding our relationship with our environment? In this chapter I want to digress from the detailed consideration of global warming (to which I shall return) in order briefly to explore these fundamental questions and to present something of my personal viewpoint on them.

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