Notes For Chapter

1 In Solomon, S. et al, (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis expressions of certainty such as very likely were related so far as possible to quantitative statements of confidence as follows: virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence, extremely likely >95%, very likely >90%, likely >66%, more likely than not >50%, unlikely <33%, very unlikely <10%, extremely unlikely <5%. When these 'likely' words, employed in this way, appear in the text they are italicised.

3 See, for instance, Crowley, T. J. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 289, 270-7.

4 Raymo, M. E., Huybers, P. 2008. Nature, 451, 284-5.

5 For a discussion of what caused the low CO2 concentrations during glacial times see Box 6.2, Chapter 6, in Solomon et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

6 See, for instance, James Hansen, Bjerknes Lecture at American Geophysical Union, 17 December 2008 at www.columbia.edu/njeh1/2008/ AGUBjerknes_2008/217.pdf

7 Berger, A., Loutre, M. F. 2002. Science, 297, 1287-8. The IPCC 2007 Report states that 'it is very unlikely that the Earth would naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years'. (Chapter 6 Summary, in Solomon et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis).

9 Broecker, W. S., Denton, G. H. 1990. What drives glacial cycles? Scientific American, 262, 43-50.

10 More information in Chapter 5, see especially Figure 5.18.

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