The Program

In December 1947, still according to Behrman, the first shipments of food arrived at Le Havre, to be distributed across France. The dock workers of France, who had been on strike before the shipment against American imperialism and the Marshall Plan, returned to work and now offered to work for free with unloading the 1500 tons of food, which filled 10 trains that headed for different regional centers in France. At the same time ships with similar loads had left harbors on the American East...

Electric Cars and Trucks

Assume also that a steering committee sets the goal of achieving 10 percent electric vehicle sales out of the total volumes sold in the automotive sector by 2015. In such a case, this could partly be achieved through increased sales of hybrid vehicles, which could also be charged via the electricity grid at night or during stops. The development of more powerful batteries for hybrid vehicles is underway. Demand, however, is still low. Increased demand would rapidly contribute to the development...

Transforming Production

As opposed to transportation there already exist a few alternative and renewable energy sources for heat and electricity production, and these alternatives are many times available as both large-scale solutions for large power plants, and as small-scale solutions for small houses. This could lay the foundation for a transformation process that to a certain extent could be market-based. However, the need to rapidly increase the capacity for the production of energy from renewable sources and the...

Government Programs and General Purpose Technologies

In his book Is War Necessary for Economic Growth , Professor Vernon W. Ruttan of University of Minnesota analyzes the question, posed in the title, whether war is necessary for the US economy and other economies to grow. Ruttan himself provides the answer to this question, saying that war and preparations for war may not be necessary, but that large-scale government-funded projects are necessary in order to drive economic growth through the development of general purpose technologies. The six...

A Program And Project Organization Item in the list of tools for project managers and participants

Any change program, in a company or in society, needs a formal organization. In the case of the Second World War industrial transformation, the core of this formal organization was represented by the War Production Board and in the case of the space program, the formal organization is represented by NASA. Representatives from these core organizations, will, however, work in committees and project teams, together with representatives from companies that run projects in the programs, experts and...

Box Stable State Economics

A form of economic system that contains a number of mechanisms that are completely different from our present system has been put forward by a number of visionary economists, who argue that our present system will outgrow (or has already outgrown) the finite resource base of the earth and needs to be replaced by a system that does not demand constant economic growth. The proponents of such a system often quote the economist Kenneth Boulding A person who believes in infinite growth in a finite...

The Organization Of A Transportation Change Program

Due to the strong systemic links between vehicles, fuel and fuel distribution, a change program needs to coordinate efforts in the three fields depicted in Figure 18.1. Transportation and logistics companies Transportation and logistics companies Figure 18.1 A change program for transformation of transportation needs to be divided into three large projects vehicles, fuels and fuel distribution In order for a change program to be successful, the organization would also need to include competence...

Existing Technologies And Product Need To Expand Bottleneck Resources Expand

In many cases, it will be unclear whether a particular change is financially justifiable or not, but a certain investment will be necessary in order to facilitate some other change. In order, for example, to reduce commuting by car in large city regions, it may be necessary to increase the density of train and bus lines and the frequency of departures in the transportation systems. In some cases, as has been dealt with above, the necessary investment may clearly be financially justifiable, in...

A Plan For Change Item in the list of tools for project managers and participants

Based on the description of the US effort to win the Second World War and other experiences of large-scale change, a framework for change, which could form the backbone of a strategy to transform the current energy-consuming systems of the global economy, is presented below. The task in itself is a truly massive undertaking, and leadership will be needed at different levels of the program and in all sectors of the economy and in society as a whole. The overall plan, and the lower-level plans...

Change In Values And Mental Models

We behave in certain ways because of our values. If we want to change behavior, we need first to change the values and mental models of people. In order to illustrate this, we may think of how slavery was once abolished in America and other countries. According to John Steele Gordon and other historians, it was not seen as a moral issue in seventeenth-century America to keep Blacks as slaves. People of African origin were seen as inferior to the Whites and this view was seldom questioned. In...

Three Examples of Large Scale Transformation Efforts from American Twentieth Century History

The recurring theme of this book regards the opportunity for economic renewal and business development that is represented by the energy transformation challenge that lies ahead of us. In order to drive home the argument that a large-scale effort to transform energy systems is both realistic and could benefit society, we will take a closer look at three, by any standards, amazing successes of large-scale American projects. We can learn many things both from the effort by the United States in...

Box Two types of values

My colleague Kjell Persson has identified two general types of values that are used to guide decision making in organizations 1. Values that guide the behavior of employees 2. Values that find their basis in ethics The first type of value is found in many companies in their instructions to employees. Many retailing firms nowadays have the policy of taking back any product that a consumer is dissatisfied with, no questions asked. The furniture retailer IKEA wants its employees always to think...

The United States In The Second World

Some authors have compared the effort needed to transform energy systems to the US war effort during the Second World War or to the race, by the United States, to put a man on the Moon. Even if I hesitate to compare the, hopefully, peaceful effort of transforming global energy systems to a war effort, there are several parallels to war, since a war effort involves the whole population of a country. In the case of the space program, this involves mainly scientists, engineers and people employed...

Market Mechanisms And Market Imperfections

In theory, the market mechanism is able to immediately allocate resources to projects and investment opportunities that offer the prospect of positive payback. In reality, this mechanism is not immediate. The limited knowledge of opportunities to save money and make profits on investments in the application of energy-efficient technology, or on the development and commercialization of this technology, needs to be taken into account, and this imperfection, in terms of knowledge, accounts for...

The First Scenario Business As Usual

Based on decades of warnings, which many believe to be false alarms, many people fear that the natural disasters and extreme weather experienced over the past few years, in the form of hurricanes, forest fires, droughts, extreme rains and tsunamis, are unfortunate, but temporary aberrations, caused more by chance, than by permanent or semipermanent changes in climate. People who live in areas used to a colder climate may welcome the prospect of having Mediterranean temperatures and look forward...

The Need To Reduce Consumption And Maintain Economic Growth

It is not an argument in this book that the economy is more important than ecology. The reason for taking the harming of economy into account is that, regardless of what we think, we are all dependent on the economy for the daily supply of food, water, petroleum and electricity. In our relationship to the economy we are like fish that are unaware of the water in which it swims. Most of the time, we are unaware of the economic system. We tend to become aware of it only when it malfunctions, such...

The Role of Financing

The extreme focus of the Second World War transformation and the Apollo projects were possible due to the vast amounts of public financing that were made available for these projects. During the last few years of the Second World War there were no other growing and profitable markets for industrial companies to supply to, than the US Government. Similarly, the Apollo project offered an extremely attractive opportunity for the participating companies to build on their existing competencies and...

And Technology Projects Within The Transportation Stream

As we create the strategy for the transition, we need to look at both the long-term and the short-term perspectives. It will be easier, in order to achieve short-term change, to start change efforts by the rapid volume increase in the penetration of existing energy-efficient technologies. The easiest and least costly, short-term alternative is represented by the rapid growth in the use of hybrid engines, which is a combination of a diesel-, or gasoline-, fueled engine, and an electric motor...

Complementary Currencies

The least well known of the financial tools in this listing is complementary currencies. This is a tool that could take a number of forms. The purpose is to make resources, usually in the form of time, available for activities, which could not easily be financed within the national currency systems. Complementary currencies could be used in the form of complete currency systems, which exist in parallel with national currencies. Complementary currency systems could also be equipped with...

Transforming Transportation

The challenge of creating sustainable energy systems is greater in transportation than in other areas. Twenty-seven percent of US energy consumption is used for transportation and the sector is heavily dependent on a few very convenient and potent fuels that are based on petroleum as a raw material. Global oil production amounts to 85 million barrels per day. Ninety percent of global transportation is based on oil as the energy source and 60 percent of all oil that is consumed globally is used...

Specialization and Outsourcing

Twenty years ago, before time compression, BPR and e-business, companies consisted of a large number of different functions. These functions were not very clearly defined inside companies, and the interfaces between companies were also unclear. It often was as if companies had been organized in a slightly random fashion. Each company had also developed certain unique, competitive advantages based on its history and different factors in its environment. One factor that gave rise to certain...

Cellulose Based Biofuels

As indicated above, we need to base an increasing amount of our future energy needs on biofuels, produced from cellulose. We already possess a number of alternative fuels that could be used, using different technologies, from distillation of ethanol, to the production of a number of different hydrocarbons from wood. In the case of methanol, we already have a process, which is available for the large-scale production of this product. As mentioned already, methanol can be used as an additive to...

Grain Based Biofuels

The primary use of grain in the future will have to be for food. We will not be able to set aside large areas of arable land for the long-term agriculture of energy crops. Due to decreasing global production volumes of grain, and the deteriorating growing conditions in many areas of the world, we may, instead, have to use more land for agriculture, without using very much of it for fuel. Grain-based ethanol could be used as an interim solution to create a demand for new alternative fuels, and...

Conclusion

The market-based approach to energy systems transformation, which is currently being pursued, will not suffice to create the large-scale transformation that we need. All the necessary financial resources will not be provided by the market on a timely and voluntary basis. A number of planned measures will be necessary in order to facilitate the necessary investments for the change program. Energy systems are, and the transformation of them, would be, in general, more complex than many people...

The Tools Of Program Or Project Management

As we move from the level of visions and values, we need to realize that a change process that needs to encompass the whole of society is, by definition, complex. In order for all streams and projects within a program to be managed in the same way, according to the same principles and values, a set of tools for program and project management needs to be put in place and used by project managers and participants. Such a set of tools will reduce the risk of individual idiosyncrasies of managers,...

Box The Case of the Oresund Bridge

In the year 2000, after more than a century of discussions between Denmark and Sweden, and a construction project spanning several years, the 20-km Oresund Bridge was opened. This bridge connects the capital of Denmark and the surrounding area with over two million people, with Malmo and a number of smaller cities in Sweden, with, altogether, one million people. The project was a tremendous engineering achievement, consisting of the construction of one entirely new island in the strait of...

Planned Decision Making in Market Economies

As we have seen above, the US economy was turned into a war economy in less than 1 year, and within 3.5 years of this decision, hundreds of thousands of airplanes, tanks, ships and other vessels and vehicles had been produced. During the same period of time, millions of uniforms had been sewn and large numbers of boots, rifles and other necessary materials had been produced as well. In the case of the Apollo program, after President John F. Kennedy's decision to put a man on the Moon, it took...

Goals And Key Figures Item in the list of tools for project managers and participants

It has already been argued above that goals are critical in a change process, such as the transition to an energy-efficient future. It is crucial that the participants can focus on common goals and objectives. For people outside of the project, goals make the change process easy to understand and it becomes possible for managers of a process to communicate goals and the steps that need to be taken in order to reach those goals. The goal of producing 50,000 airplanes per year during the Second...

Product Life Cycle Analysis

Energy consumption patterns differ between products. Some products, such as aluminum and paper pulp, require large amounts of energy in the production process. Other products require much energy in distribution, and many products consume the major part of the energy during the lifetime of the products, as is the case with production equipment in industry, cars, freezers, washing machines and other household appliances. A number of products, such as batteries, require substantial amounts of...

Structural Capital in Organizations

The development of structural capital in organizations is, according to my point of view, an amalgam of a number of different theoretical subjects, starting with organization theory, covering strategic planning, IT and operational efficiency. In a classic passage in The Wealth of Nations 1776 , economist Adam Smith describes how the division of labor in a pin factory dramatically contributed to efficiency in pin manufacturing. This division of labor represents an early example of structural...

Tidal Power

Tidal power could be made into an abundant and reliable energy source around the coasts of many countries. In the same way, as in the case of hydroelectric power, the technology for the production of tidal power is based on containing large volumes of water that rises through the tide, in large basins, in order to release the water through turbines and, by doing this, generate electricity. The tide is caused by the regular movements of the Moon in relation to the Earth, which makes this source...

Biofuels

The adoption of biofuels grows very rapidly, but from a very low level. Less than 1 percent of our energy needs are supplied by biofuels. There is substantial optimism regarding the future of these fuels, but a large amount of analysis remains to be performed in order to determine their role in the energy mixes of the near-term, medium-term and long-term future. As we will see below, there are biofuels with better prospects than ethanol that is currently expanding very rapidly in many markets...