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1.1 World population growth and significant technological developments 5

1.2 Schematic diagram of the earth/atmosphere system 6 1.3a Schematic diagram of a natural subsystem—a lake basin 7 1.3b Schematic diagram of a subsystem of anthropogenic origin—a thermal electric power plant 7

2.1 Spectral distribution of solar and terrestrial radiation 15

2.2 The hydrologic cycle 17

2.3 Energy transfer during the change in state of water 18

2.4 The vertical structure of the atmosphere and its associated temperature profile 20

2.5 The earth's energy budget 22

2.6 The latitudinal imbalance in solar and terrestrial radiation 23

2.7 The circulation of the oceans 24

2.8 The Southern Oscillation as represented by the Tahiti minus Darwin atmospheric pressure anomaly: 1968-82 25

2.9 Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific Ocean: December 1982 26 2.10a Simple convective circulation on a uniform, non-rotating earth, heated at the equator and cooled at the poles 27 2.10b Three-cell model of the atmospheric circulation on a uniform, rotating earth, heated at the equator and cooled at the poles 27

2.11 The index cycle associated with the meandering of the mid-latitude westerlies in the northern hemisphere 28

2.12 Schematic diagram of the vertical circulation of the atmosphere and the location of the major jet streams in the northern hemisphere 29

2.13 Global wind and pressure patterns for January and July 31

2.14 Schematic illustration of the components of the coupled atmosphere—ocean—ice—land climatic system 36

3.1 Rainfall fluctuations in five regions of Africa, 1901-87 42

3.2a The deserts and arid lands of the world 43

3.2b Areas at risk from desertification 43

3.3 Variability of precipitation at selected stations in Africa 44

3.4 Sample climatic water budget for a mid-latitude station in North America or

Europe, based on the Thornthwaite model 46

3.5 The distribution of drought, famine and desertification in Africa 49

3.6 Seasonal changes in the position of the ITCZ in Africa 50


3.7 North-South section across West Africa, showing bands of weather associated with the ITCZ 51

3.8 Precipitation regimes in West Africa 52

3.9 August rainfall in the Sahel: 1964-84 53

3.10 The Great Plains of North America 55

3.11 Graph of temperature and precipitation for Topeka, Kansas 55

3.12 The causes and development of desertification 58

3.13 Drought and sunspot cycles in western North America 66

3.14 Variations in the northward penetration of the monsoon rains in the Sahel 1950-72 66

4.1 The pH scale: showing the pH level of acid rain in comparison to that of other common substances 71

4.2 Schematic representation of the formation, distribution and impact of acid rain 72

4.3 The geography of acid rain in Europe and North America 74

4.4 Sulphur dioxide emissions in selected countries: 1970-89 75

4.5 The geography of acid rain, showing areas with pH below 5.0 76

4.6 Annual emissions of sulphur dioxide (106 tonnes) in regions of the northern hemisphere that influence the Arctic 77

4.7 Decrease in lake pH from pre-industrial times to 1980/85 80

4.8 Aluminium concentration in relation to pH for 20 lakes near Sudbury, Ontario 81

4.9 The impact of acid rain on aquatic organisms 82

4.10 The age-class composition of samples of the white sucker populations in lakes

4.11 The impact of acid rain on the terrestrial environment 85

4.12 Reduction of sulphur dioxide through emission controls 91

4.13 Technologies and trade-offs in power station emission control 94

4.14 Emissions of SO2 and NO2 in Canada and the United States: 1970-89 97

4.15 The balance of trade in sulphur dioxide in 1980 98

5.1 A sample of the different approaches used in the classification of atmospheric aerosols 101

5.2 Diagrammatic representation of the sources and types of atmospheric aerosols 102

5.3 A comparison of the size-range of common aerosols with radiation wavelength 102

5.4 Cumulative DVI for the northern hemisphere 107

5.5 Monthly mean global temperature anomalies obtained using microwave sounding units (MSU) 109

5.6 Mean anomalies of surface air temperature (°C) for the period 2 to 3 years after volcanic eruptions with volcanic explosivity power approximately equal to the

Krakatoa eruption 110

5.7 A comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources of particulate matter 111

5.8 Emissions of particulate matter from selected nations: 1980-89 112

5.9 An estimate of the mean vertical profile of the concentration of anthropogenic aerosol mass in the high Arctic during March and April 113

5.10 The development of nuclear winter: (a) the conflict; (b) post-conflict fires; (c) nuclear winter; (d) the after-effects 115

5.11 The impact of nuclear winter on the natural environment 117

6.1 Schematic representation of the formation of stratospheric ozone 123

6.2 Diagrammatic representation of the sources of natural and anthropogenic ozone-destroyers 124

6.3 The destruction of ozone by HOx 125

6.4 The destruction of ozone by NOx 126

6.5 The break-down of a chlorofluorocarbon molecule (CFCl3) and its effect on ozone 131

6.6 Changing ozone levels at the South Pole (1964-85) 133

6.7 Incidence of melanoma in Scotland, 1979-89 138

6.8 Schematic representation of the radiation and temperature changes accompanying the depletion of stratosphere ozone 139

7.1 Measured globally-averaged (i.e. land and ocean) surface air temperatures for this century 144

7.2 Schematic representation of the storage and flow of carbon in the earth/atmosphere system 147

7.3 CO2 emissions: percentage share by region 147

7.4 Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 148

7.5 Net regional release of carbon to the atmosphere as a result of deforestation during the 1980s (teragrams of carbon) 149

7.6 Projected changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration 154

7.7 Changing greenhouse gas levels: comparison of the 'business-as-usual' scenario with one involving major emission controls 155

7.8 Change in global surface temperature following a doubling of CO2 157

7.9 Change in global soil moisture levels following a doubling of CO2 158

7.10 Greenhouse gas contributions to global warming 161

7.11 Changing vegetation patterns in Canada following a doubling of CO2 163

7.12 Environmental and economic changes expected in central and eastern Canada following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels 167

7.13 Changing global annual surface temperature 170

8.1 Changing levels of interest in environmental problems 174

8.2 GCMs and climate change 184

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