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Spec Ops Bushcrafting

Fundamentally the guide is worked around 8 survival mainstays of wild basic instincts that are instructed to the Special Forces. When you purchase this guide, there are a million survival tips and abilities that you will gain from it. The guide investigates the whole condition encompassing the US Special Forces including every last ability that keeps them alive out there in the wild. The guide will shower you with learning on wet climate fire making method that the wilderness corps use out there to keep themselves warm amid the wet climate. You don't need survival tips since you are resistant to risks. Spec Ops Bushcrafting is fundamentally a viable survival manual that tells you the various surviving abilities that keep you protected and secure. The purpose of this guide is on account of his life has been a secret and it's anything but a wonder he survived all that. You will learn of the correct calorie allow that is basic for survival. You will take in every one of the measures, looked into tips and abilities that will cover you with powerful measures to keep yourself secure and protected. You will learn tricks and tips that are useful and not a spam. More here...

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How natural disasters caused by climate change affect women

Natural disasters, which will increase in the wake of climate change, affect women and men differently. Women, as main caregivers, are more likely to be indoors particularly in developing countries when a disaster occurs and won't be able to escape. Even if they do survive, women tend to stay within the community longer afterwards to care for their families, thus exposing themselves to deadly diseases. Although not linked to global warming, the grave impact that natural disasters have on women can be seen in the death toll from the major Asian tsunami that struck at the end of 2005 and hit the province of Aceh in Indonesia, where 75 percent of those who died were women. When the death toll from natural disasters has significant gender differences, the resulting gender imbalance in the society can have major, long-term negative consequences. The Asian tsunami left the society with a three-to-one ratio of males to females. With so many mothers gone, the area experienced increases in...

NotSoNatural Disasters

Ajor natural disasters have always happened. Storms, hurricanes, floods, and droughts are all part of the planet's natural weather and climate system. In the future, however, humanity is going to be facing more and more intense versions of these phenomena and they're going to be anything but natural disasters. Civilization or more properly, the greenhouse gases (refer to Chapter 2) that civilization pumps into the atmosphere will bring them on. Earth could be facing more droughts, hurricanes, and forest fires, heavier rainfalls, rising sea levels, and major heat waves. The excess carbon dioxide that people put into the air might even disrupt the carbon cycle and turn the planet's life-support system into a vicious cycle.

Preparing and Protecting American Families from the Onslaught of Catastrophe

ProtectingAmerica.org is committed to finding better ways to prepare for and protect American families from the devastation caused by natural catastrophes. I co-chair the organization with James Lee Witt, the former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and our coalition members include the American Red Cross, other first responder groups, emergency management officials, insurers, municipalities, small businesses, Fortune 100 companies and private citizens. The membership is broad and diverse and includes members from virtually every state in the nation. ProtectingAmerica.org was formed to raise the national awareness about the important responsibility we all have to prepare and protect consumers, families, businesses and communities from natural disasters. We are building a campaign to create a comprehensive, national catastrophe management solution that protects homes and property at a lower cost, improves preparedness and reduces the financial burden on consumers and...

What are natural hazards

Although the nomenclature is sometimes ambiguous, natural hazards are usually defined as extreme natural events that pose a threat to people, their property and their possessions. Natural hazards become natural disasters if and when this threat is realised. Rapid-onset natural hazards, which form the focus of this book, can be distinguished from the often disastrous consequences of environmental degradation, such as desertification and drought, not only by their sudden occurrence but also by their relatively short duration. Natural hazards that are geophysical in nature, rather than biological, such as insect infestations or epidemics, arise from the normal physical processes operating in the Earth's interior, at its surface, or within its enclosing atmospheric envelope. Most geophysical hazards can be conveniently allocated to one or other of three categories geological (earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides), atmospheric (windstorms, severe precipitation, temperature extremes, and...

Natural hazards and us

Of the hazards that many of our fellow inhabitants of planet Earth have to face almost on a daily basis. The reinsurance company Munich Re., who, for obvious reasons, have a considerable interest in this sort of thing, estimate that up to 15 million people were killed by natural hazards in the last millennium, and over 3.5 million in the last century alone. At the end of the second millennium AD, the cost to the global economy reached unprecedented levels, and in 1999 storms and floods in Europe, India, and South East Asia, together with severe earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan and devastating landslides in Venezuela, contributed to a death toll of 75,000 and economic losses totalling 100 billion US . The last three decades of the twentieth century each saw a billion or so people suffer due to natural disasters. Unhappily, there is little sign that hazard impacts on society have diminished as a consequence of improvements in forecasting and hazard mitigation, and the outcome of the...

The Doomsday Argument Recapitulation And Then New Comments

As this chapter,1 like the others, is intended to be readable in isolation, it starts with a brief recapitulation. The doomsday argument, originated by B.Carter and then published and defended by J.Leslie, with variants by J.R.Gott and H.B.Nielsen, points out that you and I would be fairly unremarkable among human observers if the human race were to end shortly roughly 10 per 'Doomsday argument' can be a misleading label since all that is involved is a magnification of risk-estimates. Suppose, for example, that the 'total risk' of Doom Soon the probability that the human race will, presumably through its dangerous behaviour, become extinct inside some fairly short period is judged by you to be 10 per cent before you consider the argument. When you do come to consider it, this might lead you to a revised estimate of 80 per cent. But notice that the newly estimated 80 per cent risk of Doom Soon, besides being no excuse for utter despair, would have been arrived at against the background...

Carters doomsday argument

After what has just been said, it should come as no surprise that some centrally important principles of risk analysis have only lately been noticed and are sometimes violently resisted. Brandon Carter's doomsday argument is a prime example. As will be examined at greater length in Chapter 5, the argument exploits the fact that we ought to prefer (other things being equal) those theories whose truth would have made us more likely to find whatever we have in fact found. While this might seem fairly evidently forceful, many risk analysts have failed to reject Carter's argument only because they have never come across it. They haven't thought of asking themselves and would positively refuse to ask themselves where a human could expect to be in human history.

Combining Estimated Risks When Using The Doomsday Argument

The estimated total risk of Doom Soon cannot possibly exceed 100 per cent, no matter how greatly it is magnified by doomsdayargument considerations. It is therefore very wrong to Suppose, for example, that we started by thinking that the risk associated with high-energy experiments stood at 1 per cent, the only other cloud on the horizon being a 9 per cent risk associated with pollution. The doomsday argument might then perhaps encourage us to re-estimate those risks as each eight times greater than they had initially seemed but certainly not as thirteen times greater, because this would mean estimating the total risk as 130 per cent.

Weatherrelated natural hazards and climate change

Recent weather-related disasters such as the examples in Chapter 1 have demonstrated the vulnerability of many communities to natural hazards caused by extreme weather windstorms, floods, hailstorms, snow and ice storms, droughts, wildfires, heatwaves and cold waves. Therefore any increase in the frequency or severity of such events would probably be the most noticeable and damaging aspect of anthropogenic climate change, particularly where vulnerability to these hazards is also increasing (Houghton, 1997, chapters 1 and 6). Moreover, it has been known for some time that because such events are related to extreme statistical fluctuations in the weather about its average values, changes in average weather conditions (e.g. global warming) can be accompanied by significant changes in the frequency of extreme weather events too (Wigley, 1985). It certainly seems that extreme events such as the great storm of 1987 in the UK and the 1988 heatwave in the USA helped to stimulate public...

Emergency Planning and Community Rightto Know

The Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) is also known as SARA Title III since it was enacted as a freestanding law included in the SuperfUnd Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA). This law obligates facilities to provide local, state, and federal agencies with information on hazardous materials stored or in use at the premises. EPCRA covers four key issues emergency response planning, emergency release notification, reporting hazardous chemical storage, and toxic chemical release inventory (TRI). It, however, in no way limits what chemicals may be used, stored, transported, or disposed of at a facility. EPCRA was enacted in response to the chemical disaster in Bhopal, India, where residents and emergency responders were unaware of and unprepared for the lethal chemicals in their immediate environment. The State Emergency Response Commission (SERC) and Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) must be given information concerning facilities in their...

Is The Doomsday Argument Easily Refuted

Already embattled on other fronts, Carter has presented the doomsday argument only in lectures and seminars, never in print. However, I published it on p. 214 of Universes in a long foot-note. Since then I have investigated it in several articles. The argument is certainly controversial. So far, however, I have managed to find only one good ground for doubting it. Suppose that the cosmos is radically indeterministic, perhaps for reasons of quantum physics. Suppose also that the indeterminism is likely to influence how long the human race will survive. There then isn't yet any relevant firm fact, 'out there in the world' and in theory predictable by anybody who knew enough about the present arrangement of the world's particles, concerning how long it will survive like the fact that hidden cards include a definite number of aces, a number you are trying to estimate, or like the fact that exactly nine or exactly sixty names remain to be drawn from a lottery urn, after your own name has...

Changing sea levels and natural hazards

Sea levels have changed throughout geological time (e.g. Haq et al., 1987) in response to a range of different and sometimes interacting isostatic, eustatic and tectonic processes (Dawson, 1992 Box 6.1). Natural hazards related to such sea-level change are surprisingly many and varied, and the relationship between the two is often far from clear. Broadly speaking, rising sea levels can be expected to increase the threat to coastal zones, primarily owing to the inundation or flooding of low-lying terrain (see Chapter 3) but also through increased erosion, d stabilisation and collapse of elevated coastlines. Higher sea levels will also exacerbate the impact and destructive potential of storm surges and tsunami, partly because of the elevated level of the sea surface but also through increasing the exposure of many coastlines as a result of inundation of wetlands and other protective environments. The hazard implications of falling sea levels are less obvious, although it has been...

Environmental change and natural hazards the impact in the twentyfirst century

8.1), and based upon the second Hadley Centre climate model. Assuming unmitigated greenhouse emissions, the report predicts a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius by 2080, accompanied by a 41-cm rise in global mean sea level. Substantial diebacks of tropical forests and grasslands are forecast, while forest growth is promoted at higher latitudes. Water availability is predicted to fall in some parts of the world while rising in others, and patterns of cereal yields are expected to undergo similar dramatic changes. In natural hazard terms, an increase in coastal flooding is the most obvious consequence of the forecast changes, and the UK Met Office itself predicts a rise in the number of people affected annually from 13 to 94 million. Population growth in coastal zones is estimated using a projection of existing trends and assumes that the frequency of storms remains constant. Changes in either of these parameters would result in an even greater rise in coastal flood impact. In...

Natural hazards the human dimension

The impact of natural hazards on society is clearly on the rise, although it still falls far below that due to environmental degradation and, in particular, civil strife (Fig. 8.1). Figures for the period 1900-90 indicate that almost 90 per cent of disaster-related deaths over the period can be attributed to war and famine, with all the natural hazards together making up the remainder. Notwithstanding this, the numbers of people affected by natural hazards during the 1970s and 1980s fell little short of a billion - somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of the Earth's population. With over 250 million people being affected by the 1996 and 1998 Chinese floods alone, similar figures for the last decade of the millennium are likely easily to top the billion mark. The increasing impact of natural hazards over the past halfcentury is without doubt linked to rapidly rising populations in particularly vulnerable regions. At greatest risk are the poorest inhabitants of developing countries,...

The Future of Disaster Preparedness

As losses increase and casualties remain frequent and widespread, the problem of natural catastrophes is topical and pressing. Expertise is gradually accumulating on how to best tackle disaster, and new agencies for managing it are forming at the local, regional, national, and international levels. For such efforts to succeed, rigorous standards need to be established for emergency planning, management, and training. There needs to be more investment in both structural and nonstructural mitigation As it is based on organization rather than civil engineering, the latter is often more cost-effective than the former. From the point of view of understanding disaster as a phenomenon, more attention needs to be given to the role of context and culture in perceiving and interpreting the needs generated by hazards and disaster impacts. see also Economics.

Natural Disasters

Natural disasters earthquakes, floods, hurricanes have always occurred and undoubtedly always will. There are several reasons for mentioning them in a discussion of psychology and the environment. Our knowledge of such events and our growing ability to predict, at least statistically, the occurrence of some of them have implications for behavior. For example, the knowledge that a particular area is highly likely to experience severe earthquakes within a given time span has implications for the kinds of structures that should be allowed in that area and for the kinds of preparations that should be made to deal with such events when they occur. Conversely, human behavior has implications for the consequences of natural disasters that do occur. Careful planning that takes the probabilities of predictable natural disasters into account can lessen their effects planning that ignores those probabilities has the potential to magnify their effects manyfold. The Yucca Mountain site being...

Doomsday Argument

The Doomsday Argument (DA) is an anthropic argument purporting to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will become extinct relatively soon. Originated by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter and developed at length by the philosopher John Leslie,8 DA purports to show that we have neglected to fully take into account the indexical information residing in the fact about when in the history of the human species we exist. Leslie (1996) - in what can be considered the first serious study of GCRs facing humanity and their philosophical aspects - gives a substantial weight to DA, arguing that it prompts immediate re-evaluation of probabilities of extinction obtained through direct analysis of particular risks and their causalmechanisms. The balls in each urn are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, Now take one ball at random from the left urn it shows the number 7. This clearly is a strong indication that the left urn contains only 10 balls. If the odds originally...

Introduction anthropic reasoning and global risks

Different types of global catastrophic risks (GCRs) are studied in various chapters of this book by direct analysis. In doing so, researchers benefit from a detailed understanding of the interplay of the underlying causal factors. However, the causal network is often excessively complex and difficult or impossible to disentangle. Here, we would like to consider limitations and theoretical constraints on the risk assessments which are provided by the general properties of the world in which we live, as well as its contingent history. There are only a few of these constraints, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. The most important of these are observation selection effects. In the rest of this chapter, we shall consider several applications of the anthropic reasoning to evaluation of our future prospects first the anthropic overconfidence argument stemming from the past-future...

Extreme value statistics

Global catastrophic risks are extensive, severe, and unprecedented. Insurance and business generally are not geared up to handling risks of this scale or type. Insurance can handle natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and windstorms, financial catastrophes such as stock market failures to some extent, and political catastrophes to a marginal extent. Insurance is best when there is an evidential basis and precedent for legal coverage. Business is best when the capital available matches the capital at risk and the return reflects the risk of loss of this capital. Global catastrophic risks unfortunately fail to meet any of these criteria. Nonetheless, the loss modelling techniques developed for the insurance industry coupled with our deeper understanding of uncertainty and new techniques give good reason to suppose we can deal with these risks as we have with others in the past. Do we believe the fatalist cliche that 'risk is the

Pastfuture asymmetry and risk inferences

Consider the simplest case of a single very destructive global catastrophe, for instance, a worse-than-Toba super-volcanic eruption (see Chapter 10, this volume). The evidence we take into account in a Bayesian manner is the fact of our existence at the present epoch this, in turn, implies the existence of a complicated web of evolutionary processes upon which our emergence is contingent we shall neglect this complication in the present binary toy model and shall return to it in the next subsection. The situation is schematically shown in Fig. 6.1. The a priori probability of catastrophe is Pand the probability of human extinction (or a sufficiently strong perturbation leading to divergence of evolutionary pathways from the morphological subspace containing humans) upon the catastrophic event is Q. We shall suppose that the two probabilities are (1) constant, (2) adequately normalized, and (3) applicable to a particular well-defined interval of past time. Event B2 is the occurence of...

Future evolutionary directions

Even a large global catastrophe such as a 10 km asteroidal cometary impact would not spell doom for our species if we would manage to spread to other solar systems by the time the impactor arrives. We can, however, postulate a number of scenarios, short of extinction, that will test our ability to survive as a species. I will not discuss here scenarios involving intelligent machines or more radical forms of technology-enabled human transformation.

The Earth a potted biography

Since the first single-celled organisms made their appearance billions of years ago, within sweltering chemical soups brooded over by a noxious atmosphere, life has struggled precariously to survive and evolve against a background of potentially lethal geophysical phenomena. Little has changed today, except perhaps the frequency of global catastrophes, and many on the planet still face a daily threat to life, limb, and livelihood from volcano, quake, flood, and storm. The natural perils that have battered our race in the past, and which constitute a growing future threat, have roots that extend back over 4 billion years to the creation of the solar system and the formation of the Earth from a disc of debris orbiting a primordial Sun. Like our sister planets, the Earth can be viewed as a lottery jackpot winner one of only nine chunks of space debris out of original trillions that managed to grow and endure while the rest annihilated one another in spectacular collisions or were swept...

Peter Taylor Catastrophes and insurance

This chapter explores the way financial losses associated with catastrophes can be mitigated by insurance. It covers what insurers mean by catastrophe and risk, and how computer modelling techniques have tamed the problem of quantitative estimation of many hitherto intractable extreme risks. Having assessed where these techniques work well, it explains why they can be expected to fall short in describing emerging global catastrophic risks such as threats from biotechnology. The chapter ends with some pointers to new techniques, which offer some promise in assessing such emerging risks. Insurance against catastrophes has been available for many years - we need to only think of the San Francisco 1906 earthquake when Cuthbert Heath sent the telegram 'Pay all our policyholders in full irrespective of the terms of their policies' back to Lloyd's of London, an act that created long-standing confidence in the insurance markets as providers of catastrophe cover. For much of this time,...

Encounters with Extraterrestrial Objects

The end of 2000, 1,254 and by June 2007, more than 4,100, of which nearly 880 were bodies with diameters > 1 km (fig. 2.5). As the findings accumulate, there has been an expected decline in annual discoveries of NEAs with diameters > 1 km, and the search has been asymptotically approaching the total number of such NEAs. Consequently, we are now much better able to assess the size-dependent impact frequencies and to quantify the probabilities of encounters whose consequences range from local damage through regional devastation to a global catastrophe. velocities, even small NEOs have kinetic energy equivalent to that of a small nuclear bomb larger bodies can bring regional devastation, and the largest can cause a global catastrophe. after additional observations. Levels 3 and 4 indicate close encounters with 1 or greater chance of collision capable of localized or regional destruction and significant threats of close encounters causing a global catastrophe begin only with level 6.

Suggestions for further reading

A travelogue chronicling a dozen contemporary millennial groups, religious and secular, from UFO cults and evangelical premillennialists to transhumanists and immortalists. Leslie, J. (1998). The End of the World The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. Grand Rapids MI. CNN. (1998). Survivalists try to prevent millennium-bug bite. October 10. Cohn, N. (1970). The Pursuit of the Millennium Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical (New York Alfred A. Knopf). Leslie, J. (1998). The End of the World The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction Religious Movements Homepage Project at the University of Virginia. Global catastrophic risks of Technological and Environmental Dangers (Berkeley, CA University of California Press). Wojcik, D. (1997). The End of the World as We Know It Faith, Fatalism, and Apocalypse The End of the World As We Know It Faith, Fatalism, and Apocalypse in America (New York New York University Press). Zerzan, J. (2002). Running on Emptiness...

Martin J Rees Foreword

Throughout the decades of the Cold War, the entire Western World was at great hazard. The superpowers could have stumbled towards Armageddon through muddle and miscalculation. We are not very rational in assessing relative risk. In some contexts, we are absurdly risk-averse. We fret about statistically tiny risks carcinogens in food, a one-in-a-million change of being killed in train crashes, and so forth. But most of us were 'in denial' about the far greater risk of death in a nuclear catastrophe. But, along with these hopes, twenty-first century technology will confront us with new global threats - stemming from bio-, cyber- and environmental-science, as well as from physics -that could be as grave as the bomb. The Bulletin's clock is now closer to midnight again. These threats may not trigger sudden worldwide catastrophe - the doomsday clock is not such a good metaphor - but they are, in aggregate, disquieting and challenging. The tensions between benign and damaging spin-offs from...

Dominant Fuels Enduring Prime Movers

The modern tradition of concerns about an impending decline in resource extraction began in 1865 with William Stanley Jevons, a leading economist of the Victorian era, who concluded that falling coal output must spell the end of Britain's national greatness because it is of course . . . useless to think of substituting any other kind of fuel for coal (Jevons 1865, 183). Substitute oil for coal in that sentence, and you have the erroneous foundations of the present doomsday sentiments about oil. There is no need to elaborate on how wrong Jevons was. The Jevonsian view was reintroduced by Hubbert (1969) with his correct timing of U.S. oil production, leading those who foresaw an early end to oil reserves to consider Hubbert's Gaussian exhaustion curve with the reverence reserved by Biblical fundamentalists for Genesis.

Nick Bostrom and Milan M Cirkovic Introduction

The term 'global catastrophic risk' lacks a sharp definition. We use it to refer, loosely, to a risk that might have the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. On this definition, an immensely diverse collection of events could constitute global catastrophes potential candidates range from volcanic eruptions to pandemic infections, nuclear accidents to worldwide tyrannies, out-of-control scientific experiments to climatic changes, and cosmic hazards to economic collapse. With this in mind, one might well ask, what use is a book on global catastrophic risk The risks under consideration seem to have little in common, so does 'global catastrophic risk' even make sense as a topic Or is the book that you hold in your hands as ill-conceived and unfocused a project as a volume on 'Gardening, Matrix Algebra, and the History of Byzantium' We are confident that a comprehensive treatment of global catastrophic risk will be at least somewhat more useful and...

Further Reading

UCL Press. 1998. Bryant, Edward. Tsunami The Underrated Hazard. Cambridge University Press. 2001. Burroughs. William. J. Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 2001. Threat to Life on Earth. Barrens. 2002. McGuire, W.J., Kilburn, C. R.J., and Mason, I. M. Natural Hazards and Environmental Change. Arnold, gooi. Newson, L. The Atlas of the World's Worst Natural Disasters. Dorling Kindersley. 1998. Steel. Duncan. Target Earth. Readers Digest, gooo. Zebrowski, E. Jr. Perils of a Restless Planet Scientific Perspectives on Natural Disasters. Cambridge University Press. 1997.


Greens and others of an apocalyptic frame of mind were quick to seize on Joy's essay as an argument for the enacting of bans on technological innovation, invoking the 'precautionary principle', the idea that a potentially dangerous technology should be fully studied for its potential impacts before being deployed. The lobby group ETC argued in its 2003 report 'The Big Down' that nanotechnology could lead to a global environmental and social catastrophe, and should be placed under government moratorium. Anxieties about the apocalyptic risks of converging bio-, nano- and information technologies have fed a growing Luddite strain in Western culture (Bailey 2001a, 2001b), linking Green and anarchist advocates for neo-pastoralism (Jones, 2006 Mander, 1992 Sale, 2001 Zerzan, 2002) to humanist critics of technoculture (Ellul, 1967 Postman, 1993 Roszak, 1986) and apocalyptic survivalists to Christian millennialists. The neo-Luddite activist Jeremy Rifkin has, for instance, built coalitions...


The millennial impulse is ancient and universal in human culture and is found in many contemporary, purportedly secular and scientific, expectations about the future. Millennialist responses are inevitable in the consideration of potential catastrophic risks and are not altogether unwelcome. Secular techno-millennials and techno-apocalyptics can play critical roles in pushing reluctant institutions towards positive social change or to enact prophylactic policies just as religious millennialists have in the past. But the power of millennialism comes with large risks and potential cognitive errors which require vigilant self-interrogation to avoid. 86 Global catastrophic risks

Confirmation bias

In computer security, a trusted system is one that you are in fact trusting, not one that is in fact trustworthy. A trusted system is a system which, if it is untrustworthy, can cause a failure. When you read a paper which proposes that a potential global catastrophe is impossible, or has a specific annual probability, or can be managed using some specific strategy, then you trust the rationality of the authors. You trust the authors' ability to be driven from a comfortable conclusion to an uncomfortable one, even in the absence of overwhelming experimental evidence to prove a cherished hypothesis wrong. You trust that the authors didn't unconsciously look just a little bit harder for mistakes in equations that seemed to be leaning the wrong way, before you ever saw the final paper.

Quantifying the Odds

Scores of millions of people live in regions that are highly susceptible to such natural disasters as hurricanes or earthquakes, posing risks whose magnitude is only 10-10-10-11 per person per hour of exposure. Even in the United States, with its poor rail transport (compared to Europe and Japan), people who travel every day by all natural disasters train enjoy the safest form of public transportation. Traveling by train has a fatality risk of about 10-8, adding a mere 1 to the overall risk of dying while en route. Similarly, the latest generation of jet planes is so reliable that only a rare pilot error (often during inclement weather) causes major accidents. Between 2002 (when there was not a single accident) and 2005 the risks of U.S. commercial aviation were only about 1 x 10-8 (identical to the risk of suicide) as some 600 million passengers boarded planes for trips averaging 2 hours (NTSB 2006). And even during the tragic year of 2001 the annual nationwide mean was about 3.3 x...

Disaster Damage Trends

Since the late 1960s, the losses caused by natural disasters in East Asia have been increasing. Figure 20.1 shows direct disaster losses in East Asia Fig. 20.1. Reported economic damages (USD at 2000 prices) and number of people affected by natural disasters in East Asia (OFDA CRED 2004). Fig. 20.1. Reported economic damages (USD at 2000 prices) and number of people affected by natural disasters in East Asia (OFDA CRED 2004). The increase in the natural disaster losses in East Asia is alarming, and the same trend also exists in other regions of the world. Weather-related disasters have taken the lives of well over one million people worldwide in the past two decades, and the economic losses from these and other natural disasters have increased almost ninefold from the decade of the 1960s to the 1990s. Because of high concentrations of capital, it is not surprising that losses are higher in the developed world yet, in terms of Gross National Product, poor countries and regions suffer...

Methods and materials

The main principles and methods of spatial-temporal analysis and the synthesis of respective data and generalisations have been used for processing the basic data. To assess the consequences of natural disasters, such as floods, mudflows and landslides in Armenia, documents of state institutions and local government, namely, emergency reports, statements on losses and damage caused by floods and mudflows, have been used.

Variation trend of extreme drought during

Extreme drought always brings about severer natural disasters, and threatens much the agricultural production and human's daily life. Lots of statistical results show the rapid increase of the damage caused by extreme drought. Thus it is necessary to study the frequency and variation trend of extreme drought. Here, the variation trend of extreme drought over China during 1951-2004 was analyzed (Ma and Fu, 2003).

Senator Timothy E Wirth

In the United States, the year 1988 will be remembered for many historic events. The U.S. reached agreement on a major arms control treaty with the Soviet Union and the American people elected a new president. Yet, one can make a strong case that the most significant events were a string of natural disasters that took place in the summer of 1988.

Warming the Worlds Waters Threats to the Underwater World

Water makes up 70 percent of the Earth's surface, making it a very important set of ecosystems, including oceans, seas, wetlands, rivers, streams, and swamps. Climate change will affect all of these ecosystems in the form of increasing water temperatures, rising sea levels, or droughts brought on by rising air temperatures. (Refer to Chapter 7 for more about the natural disasters global warming may cause.) Exactly how these ecosystems will be affected, no one knows. Climate change is reshuffling the deck of water systems, and the world doesn't know what kind of hand it'll get dealt.

Box Impact of Climate Change on China

Even without global warming, China's climate presents major challenges. Most of China already experiences seasonal extremes of temperature, precipitation is unevenly distributed and natural disasters have had severe impact. More than one-quarter of China's area is already affected by desertification. Over 18 000 km of coastline and more than 5 000 islands are at risk in the event of a rise in sea level. Any exacerbation of these situations therefore poses a grave threat.

Warming action and why they are wrong

Response Global warming is under way. Severe swings in regional climates are already causing natural disasters to sweep the globe. Global warming poses a major threat to international stability. The IPcc says we must begin reductions by 2015 to have any realistic chance to prevent the worst effects of global warming. The technology exists to reduce these effects through comprehensive application of energy efficiency, wind power, and solar power. New coal-fired power plants should also prepare to make cO2 reductions right away. carbon capture and sequestration (ccS) technology will be commercially available between 2015 and 2020. If the first wave of near-zero emissions is expected to start operation around 2012 to 2013, then around 2015 commercial availability of ccS technologies should be available for new plants and retrofit of some existing plants.

The First Scenario Business As Usual

Based on decades of warnings, which many believe to be false alarms, many people fear that the natural disasters and extreme weather experienced over the past few years, in the form of hurricanes, forest fires, droughts, extreme rains and tsunamis, are unfortunate, but temporary aberrations, caused more by chance, than by permanent or semipermanent changes in climate. People who live in areas used to a colder climate may welcome the prospect of having Mediterranean temperatures and look forward to increasing tourism in the summer. It may be tempting to see the consequences of global warming as a zero-sum game, in which some countries win short term because of increased tourism and other advantages, while other countries receive more rain and thus may get slightly better conditions for agriculture.

Future Research Needs

This chapter discusses the vulnerability of East Asia to sea-level rise and climate change based on existing studies. The profile and characteristics of vulnerability are quite diverse, in some cases also very serious, reflecting the variety of natural and man-made systems in the region. These results also lead us to a consideration of response strategies. Vulnerability is an overall concept for coping with the adverse effects of sea-level rise and climate change. It consists of several components, such as susceptibility and resilience to environmental changes and natural disasters, and capacity of the system to adapt (IPCC 2001b). In the face of climate change, each country needs to take action in the form of engineering measures, and institutional and planning arrangements, to reduce the adverse effects. The degree and range of the possible impacts identified in this review is quite large. On the other hand, the adaptive capacity of the coastal systems and society is limited,...

What Does GDP Measure

Economic bads such as pollution control equipment, police protection, and medical facilities to deal with health problems caused by pollution, are not subtracted, although as these costs increase we are worse off. Replacement of homes and other possessions that are destroyed by natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes are added to GDP. Similarly, the production of cleaning materials and the salaries paid to clean up workers from the Exxon Valdez oil spill were added to GDP.

Defining Energy Security

Yet no energy system can be entirely secure in the short term, because disruptions or shortages can arise unexpectedly, whether through sabotage, political intervention, strikes, technical failures, accidents or natural disasters. In the longer term, under-investment in crude oil production, refining or transportation capacity, or other market failures can lead to shortages and consequently unacceptably high prices. So energy security, in practice, is best seen as a problem of risk management, that is reducing to an acceptable level the risks and consequences of disruptions and adverse long-term market trends. Secure energy supply is a public good, as the benefit derived from it by one consumer does not reduce the benefit to everyone else. Markets alone do not reflect the cost to society of a supply failure because it is beyond the power of an individual supplier or consumer to guarantee security. Put another way, all market players benefit from action to...

Variability of agricultural production

Frost protection has to be set up for the irrigated arable land according to the climate of the country. According to research, the late spring and early autumn frosts are not related to global warming, and agriculture has to be prepared to them. Climate change can influence the frequency of natural disasters, which has to be taken into consideration.

Financial disaster risk management

Risk management policies should include mitigation and prevention efforts as well as consideration of risk-financing instruments. The victims of economic damages from natural disasters (households, businesses, agriculture, and the public sector) do not always absorb the full losses. The financial burdens can be transferred to others through the assistance of

Climate change impacts in Asian countries

Flooding, one of the main natural disasters in China, occurs frequently, not only in southern China where a humid monsoon climate prevails but also in arid and semiarid northern China. Changes in risk of flooding are considered to be one of the potential impacts of climate change, since some studies indicate an increase in frequency intensity of heavy rain. On the other hand, the additional investment in infrastructure for preventing flood disasters in the early decades of this century have the potential to mitigate not only the additional flood disasters caused by future climate change but also those which currently occur because of climate variability.

Assuring Energy Supply Reliability Quality And A Clean Environment

Energy supply consists of discovery, production, transportation, storage, refining, and conversion of fuels, as well as generation, storage, transmission, and use of energy. All these processes require physical assets, management, information gathering, use and control. All of these are subject to failure or degradation as a result of mismanagement, natural disasters, degradation, terrorism, security breaches, defective materials, and many more factors. To reduce the potential for and probability of failure or degradation in energy or fuel supply and use, important quality controls, engineering, and testing standards, as well as continued supervision and tests are usually employed, documented and any prospective deficiency is remedied. Because fuel and energy production, supply, and use chains involve so many links,

DB Brooks and J Linton

Limiting our demands for water is one of the best ways to reduce risk and increase security. The need for greater attention to water demand has come to be widely accepted over the past decade. However, it has not generally been considered in the context of natural disasters. This presentation looks at three time frames within which a role for reductions in demand for water can be explored emergency (weeks to months) when the focus is on staying alive medium term (next 10 to 20 years) when the focus is on efficiency of water services and long term (beyond 20 years) when the focus is on sustainability. Reserve sectors and restrictions on use are appropriate for emergency situations. Conventional and extended forms of demand management are appropriate for the medium term. More transformative measures, which focus on changes in behaviour patterns and economic structure, are appropriate for the long term. These approaches make the efforts to reduce water demand less a choice of...

Gdp Is Not A Measure Of Either Wealth Or Welfare

The fact that GDP is not an adequate measure of wealth is obvious from the definition. In the first place, it counts income obtained by depleting natural assets such as forests, fisheries or mineral deposits, but makes no allowance for the loss of wealth resulting from the depletion. Yet the bookkeeping accounts of any private enterprise would have to balance expenditure (or income) against changes in the stock of money in the bank. The most obvious examples are oil-exporting countries, but the argument applies equally to other natural resources such as forests and fisheries (for example, Repetto 1985, 1988 Repetto et al. 1989). To be sure, as the resource is gradually used up, its market price will rise, generating an apparent increase in the value of what remains. However, this process is clearly not sustainable in the long run. Rising prices to the consumers of the resource will reduce demand and induce substitution. As mentioned in the previous section, expenditures to repair...

The GARP tropical experiment begins

Early in the twenty-first century, we are trying hard to prevent an ongoing deterioration of the surface-based observational system. Paradoxically, there is at the same time an extraordinary interest in defence against natural disasters and the threat of a human-induced climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gases is constantly increasing. This indeed signifies a remarkable change in the politics regarding scientific and technological development for the pursuit of environmental studies during the last few decades. The scientists leading the GARP efforts were lucky in that the necessity of understanding the fundamental scientific issues in order to be able to develop new methods for weather forecasting was obvious and recognised. The reduced resources in later years are, however, to a considerable degree due to the increasingly complex political issues that the world only gradually became aware of in the 1990s.

The Australian governments responses at an international level to greenhouse gas emissions

There has been a great deal of criticism of the government's position at Kyoto particularly since it relied entirely on ABARE modelling to reach the conclusions that it did. ABARE modelling did not consider the potential losses to Australia like the social, environmental and economic costs of bushfires, floods and tropical cyclones, natural disasters resulting in loss of crops and production and widespread property damage.14 ABARE also did not account for benefits to the Australian economy of developing and selling renewable energy

Global warming is a largescale problem

The market may influence the global warming debate through the insurance industry. We saw in Chapter 12 the huge increase in insurance payout to cover atmospheric-related natural disasters. It is not at all clear to what extent this trend is due to climate or to social factors, but the insurance industry is certainly concerned about the possibility of climate change affecting their bottom line. Insurance companies have been responsible for other preventative measures such as requirements for hard hats on construction sites.

The Framework Convention On Climate Change And The Cop Process

Environment Programme, 2002 Natural Disasters Set to Cost Over 70 Billion (Oct. 29, 2002) available at www.enn.com extras see also WMO, WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2001 (2001) available at (reporting on record floods and other natural weather related disasters in 2001), and John Shaw, The New York Times, Nov. 24, 2002, at 12.

Climate change as crisis

Opment marked by growing social inequalities (UNDP 2000 UNDP et al. 2001). Ecological losses under climate change will increase under economic globalization, as human disruption to natural systems and the landscape have diminished the adaptive options for species and ecosystems (IPCC 1996b, 2001b). Growing world population has found the absolute number of the world's poor increasing (UNDP 2000 World Bank 2000a). For this unfortunate group, their association with the natural world is absolute and immediate. Survival, for many, is linked to highly stressed local systems of food gathering, agriculture, and water production. Furthermore, the world's poor remain highly vulnerable to climate-related diseases and to climate-related natural hazards (IPCC 1990b, 1996b, and 2001b). Developed nations have the opportunity to react adaptively to many of the potential climate impacts simply by virtue of being developed research, education, governance, infrastructure development, technology, and...

Needed Actions And Risks To Overcome The Pending Nooil Crisis

High because of the large expanse and number of solar panels and wind-turbines. Compared to coal and nuclear power generation, one finds solar and wind power to be at least four to five times more expensive at the 1 TW level. This applies to both capital and operating costs. (For nuclear power plants, fuel costs are less than 30 of operating costs.) Costs for insurance against natural disasters such as hurricanes, sand-storms, and earthquakes which could damage vast areas of solar or wind power complexes, must be added to overall operating expenses of course. It will likely be two to three times higher than insurance for the nuclear option (1), because of the large land areas covered (higher exposure to natural forces).

There are large potential gains to IEA countries on the one hand and to China and India on the other from enhanced

Countries have long recognised the advantages of co-operation with China and India, reflected in a steady broadening of the range of co-operative activities through the IEA and other multilateral and bilateral agreements. These activities need to be stepped up, with China and India establishing a deeper relationship with the Agency. IEA co-operation with China and India on enhancing oil-emergency preparedness and on developing cleaner and more efficient technologies, especially for coal, remains a priority. Collaboration between IEA countries and developing countries, including China and India, is already accelerating deployment of new technologies a development that will yield big dividends in the longer term. Mechanisms need to be enhanced to facilitate and encourage the financing of such technologies in China, India and other developing countries. Given the scale of the energy challenge facing the world, a substantial increase is called for in public and private funding for energy...

Who needs a loss inventory

The United States is exposed to many different types of natural hazards, and to weather and climate hazards in particular. Media-friendly hurricanes batter the coasts while floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, droughts, and other common and powerful hazards affect not only coastal areas but also the interior areas of the country. The destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina along the Gulf Coast in 2005 is just the current placeholder for the next ''big hazard event.'' Death and destruction can occur anywhere in the United States, not just along the coastlines. In times of increasing losses from natural hazards at both a global and a national scale (McBean, 2004 Cutter and Emrich, 2005), the country should not and cannot plan for the future without some systematic accounting or a central repository of past losses. The National Planning Scenarios, developed by the Homeland Security Council in collaboration with the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), are designed to support mitigation...

Technological Left Side

The coal industry thinks we should build clean coal plants. That's a good idea, but I have an even better one. If we're going to build coal plants to exploit our most abundant energy resource, let's build intelligent coal refineries. Intelligently designed coal plants are located at the mine, so that the emissions and discharges can be put back where they came from and the supply line is minimized. They also would include provisions for extracting other high-value energy products from the coal, and to process recycled materials using principles of industrial ecology. Finally, no coal plant should be built without a well-defined, executable plan for managing carbon dioxide emissions with transparent costs to do so. This would be the equivalent of a nuclear plant's emergency-preparedness plan that it develops in cooperation with the local community.

Comprehensive Security Evaluation and Vulnerability Studies

The NRC has increased staffing of its 24-hour Emergency Operations Center to assist in the prompt dissemination of pertinent information to all concerned parties. In 2004, the NRC completed a major overhaul of the communications and computer systems in the Operations Center headquarters. The new design is expected to enhance communications, provide greater access to information, and assist in the coordination of teams with response duties during emergencies. To consolidate security, safeguards, and responsibilities in the event of an incident, the NRC established an Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response in April 2002. This office serves to streamline decision making, improve information dissemination, and provide a more visible point of contact and effective counterpart to the DHS as well as other federal agencies. In June 2003 the agency established the position of Deputy Executive Director for Homeland Protection and Preparedness in order to increase the agency's...

Conventions relating to nuclear safety standards and State responsibility

As for implementation, by article 19 each Party is required to establish and maintain a legislative and regulatory framework to control the safety of spent fuel and radioactive waste management. This must establish applicable national safety regulations and requirements for radiation safety, must set up a system for licensing spent fuel and radioactive waste management and ensure that such operations are prohibited without a licence. Further, each Party must establish a system for regulatory inspection, documentation and reporting and appropriate institutional control, together with a clear allocation of responsibilities between the appropriate instrumentalities involved in the management of spent fuel and radioactive waste management. Article 20 specifies that the requirements are to be fulfilled by setting up a regulatory body to be entrusted with the implementation of the provisions contained in article 19. Various rules in relation to radiation protection and emergency...

Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act USC et seq

The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA) revises and extends CERCLA (Superfund authorization). CERCLA is extended by the addition of new authorities known as the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act of 1986 (also known as Title III of SARA). Title III of SARA provides for emergency planning and preparedness, community right-to-know reporting, and toxic chemical release reporting. This act also establishes a special program within the Department of Defense for restoration of contaminated lands, somewhat similar to the Superfund under CERCLA. A multilayer emergency planning and response network on the state and local government levels is to be established (also providing a notification scheme in the event of a release). Enforcement responsibilities federal-state relationship. Local emergency planning committees or an emergency response commission appointed by the governor of the state is responsible for the response scheme. The primary...

Government Regulation The Toxics Release Inventory

The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) was established under the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act of 1986. Under the program certain industrial facilities using specific toxic chemicals must report annually on their waste management activities and toxic chemical releases. These releases are to air, land, or water. More than 650 toxic chemicals are on the TRI list. In addition, the Pollution Prevention Act of 1990 requires the EPA to collect data on toxic chemicals recycled, treated, or combusted for energy recovery.

Government Regulations Programs And Funding

In 1984 a deadly cloud of chemicals was released from the Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, following an explosion in the plant. The methyl isocya-nate gas killed approximately three thousand people and injured two hundred thousand others. Shortly after, a similar chemical release occurred in West Virginia, where a cloud of gas sent 135 people to the hospital with eye, throat, and lung irritation complaints. There were no fatalities. Such incidents fueled the demand by workers and the general public for information about hazardous materials in their areas. As a result Congress passed the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act of 1986 (EPCRA PL 99-499).

The Media And Public Opinion On The Environment

The public in western nations has been energized by well-publicized environmental crises. In the United States, for example, pictures on TV screens of the Santa Barbara oil spill of 1969 focused attention on environmental pollution as had no prior event and led to the organization and holding of Earth Day 1970, adoption of the National Environmental Protection Act (1970) and establishment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accident of 1978 led to development of new regulations for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which required emergency planning at commercial nuclear power plants. The 1984 chemical plant disaster which took 5,000 lives of workers and residents in Bhopal, India led to community right-to-know provisions in the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986. This required industries using dangerous chemicals to indicate types and amounts of chemicals to those living in areas likely to be affected by...

The Conundrum Risk of Widespread US Economic Dislocation

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish. But you should hear what he's saying in private. His prediction America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic 'Armageddon' Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that 'we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual Armageddon.' The chance we'll get through OK one in 10. Maybe. Brett Arends, Economic 'Armageddon' Predicted,

Issues Impacting the Move toward Nuclear Energy

It's unfortunate that the same word used to describe atomic bombs and nuclear Armageddon has to be associated with nuclear power. It's like associating all fossil fuel consumption with Molotov cocktails. Imagery and symbolism are very powerful elements in human perception. In this section I address some of the more persistent elements of nuclear mythology. Some may accuse me of taking a political stand here, and perhaps I am. Nuclear is going to play a role in the world's energy drama more and more as time progresses. For that to happen, people need to understand what's myth and what's not.

Toward a Better International Regime

The United Nations system at large addresses many important problems, from emergency food supplies to peacekeeping in many areas around the world, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. But, through influence on their government delegations, vested interests too often swing decisions to favor themselves or to impede action. The United Nations itself suffers from an outdated structure (especially that of the Security Council) and a far-flung set of agencies with too little coordination among them. In short, the UN system needs revision, as well as much more consistent and concrete support from member nations. Fortunately, discussion of these needs is already under way.

Humanitarian development aid and political agendas

This political agenda continued to the end of the decade. After the Cuban drought of 1998, the USA made an offer to the appeal by the World Food Programme for emergency food relief. This offer was based on the proviso that Cuba meet certain conditions, such as allowing international monitoring of food distribution, allowing USAID markings on donated foodstuffs, and involving NGOs in the distribution process. Cuba's centralized food distribution and rationing system made these conditions difficult to comply with, and the government was also cautious of the USA's motivations in developing close links with NGOs. Political capital was made out of this impasse a statement from a

Subsidizing the Powerful

The battle over agricultural subsidies and their relationship to commodity dumping has become the Achilles Heel of the WTO since its inception. For many decades in industrial countries, subsidies and farm price supports have been used as a way of nurturing farm livelihoods, rural communities, and local culture. The AoA was supposed to bring a reduction of agricultural subsidies in the North to level the playing field and this was expected to improve the ability of southern countries to export their agricultural products to the North. However, the agreement actually allows northern countries to maintain most of the high subsidies that existed prior to the WTO. In contrast, developing countries, which had little or no domestic or export subsidies in the first place, were now barred by the AoA from having them or creating any new ones. Additionally, central seed banks, supply management systems, emergency food stock programs, quota systems, and other tools that developing countries...

Incubation period days

Wild rodent plague foci are often extensive and harmless, and to try and destroy them a considerable task. If they are localized and close to habitation, then it might be feasible to alter the environment by cultivation or in a way that discourages rodents. Precautions need to be taken that a plague epidemic is not generated by such activity. Where hunters or soldiers have to pass through a plague focus, then personal protection can be obtained from long trousers tucked into socks, treated with repellents or insecticides. Warnings should be given about the danger of touching or eating any animals killed.

The Greens And The Future Of Italian Democracy

The future of the Verdi is uncertain. As elsewhere, they face a major crisis of image, organization and strategy, linked in part to the conventional split between Green fundamentalism and realism. In Italy, this crisis has three further dimensions. A national Green political force must carve itself a niche among the myriad parties and environmental associations which are simultaneously its allies and competitors for public

Energy and globalisation of the economy

Globalisation of the economy has led to greater dependency on oil, due to the ever-increasing demand for petroleum fuels and more generally fossil fuels. We have recently seen that the global economy could cope reasonably well with an increase in the cost of energy. In contrast however, an interruption, even temporary, in oil supplies would cause a major crisis.

Handling of Land and Assets

Owned by the KRG, the contractor is first required to endeavor to reach a use agreement with the owner.173 If these efforts prove unsuccessful, the contractor notifies the government, which shall, if the contractor's use is to be of short duration, determine the fair and reasonable level of compensation to be paid by the contractor to the owner (presumably for a government-compelled right of use),174 or if the use or its effect is to be long lasting, commence expropriation action.175 Regarding the latter, such action is to result in title being vested in the KRG, with the contractor simply being entitled to free use of the land or property for the petroleum operations.176 Expenditures incurred or compensation paid by the contractor for land or property use shall be considered a Petroleum Cost and shall be recoverable.177 Articles 17.3 and 17.5 provide the contractor with extensive rights to use the whole panoply of existing KRG infrastructure in the context of petroleum operations,...

Just Who Should Count As Being Human

Now, what about the doomsday argument's 'reference class' Who ought to be considered 'humans' for its purposes Looking towards the past, at what date shall we say that humans first diverged from the manlike apes Imagining the future, should we still call a race 'human' when it had undergone great evolutionary changes When we look to the future, in contrast, a great deal might seem to depend on whether descendants of all the greatly altered types imagined by O.Stapledon in his Last and First Men7 let alone members of the 'humanity that has become completely etherialized, becoming masses of atoms in space communicating by radiation, and ultimately perhaps resolving itself entirely into light' of the British crystallographer J.D.Bernal's The World, the Flesh, and the Devil8 were to be counted as 'humans'. One could imagine, too, many degrees of fusion between our descendants and computers to which their brains were permanently linked. Should they all be called humans Again, the...

Introduction The risk of extinction

Will the human race become extinct fairly shortly Have the dangers been underestimated, and ought we to care The Introduction will give the book's main arguments, particularly a 'doomsday argument' originated by the cosmologist Brandon Carter. We ought to have some reluctance to believe that we are very exceptionally early, for instance in the earliest 0.001 per cent, among all humans who will ever have lived. This would be some reason for thinking that humankind will not survive for many more centuries, let alone colonize the galaxy. Taken just by itself, the doomsday argument could do little to tell us how long humankind will survive. What it might indicate, though, is that the likelihood of Doom Soon is greater than we would otherwise think. Here, 'otherwise-thinking' involves taking account of well-recognized dangers like those of pollution and nuclear war.

Greatest ResponsiBiLiTY

But the greatest responsibility now for the media is the wildlife crisis, in my view. The media should lend a voice to the cause of the mute and helpless wildlife that is being decimated in the name of human rights and scrutinise the fallout of lax administration and potholed policies that adversely affect wildlife conservation. The rate at which tigers are disappearing from the forests and ending up as branded balms on shelves of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) markets, we are likely to lose the remaining 1,400 tigers in less than a year. Not to sound like a doomsday prophet again, but the tiger is indeed at the head of the faunal diversity and biodiversity. If we lose the tiger, we are going to lose all the wildlife which forms its prey-base and the remaining Protected Areas which serve more as catchment areas for our water resources than as homes to the precious wildlife. It is our job as environmental journalists to create the requisite awareness amongst the common man that...

Comparing The Risks And Trying To Guess The Total Risk

Even after taking the doomsday argument into account, there remain many grounds for hope and none for absolute despair. For a start, there's the fact that the doomsday argument could be much weakened if the world were indeterministic, which is what many people think it to be. This will be discussed in just a moment. To end the chapter, let us take a closer look at how risk estimates are affected when we see force in Carter's doomsday argument.

Some Further Examples Of Attempted Refutations

The doomsday argument itself is reasonably straightforward. ('We should tend to distrust any theory which made us into very exceptionally early humans.' This is hardly a very difficult thought, is it ) What can make the argument seem highly complicated is the need to guard it against a hundred criticisms. Because of the intricacies in which we are then entangled, a thorough discussion of the area will be deferred until Chapters 5 and 6. (b) The doomsday argument is about probabilities. Suppose you know that your name is in a lottery urn, but not how many other names the urn contains. You estimate, however, that there's a half chance that it contains a thousand names, and a half chance of its containing only ten. Your name then appears among the first three drawn from the urn. Don't you have rather strong grounds for revising your estimate Shouldn't you now think it very improbable that there are another 997 names waiting to be drawn (c) Don't describe the doomsday argument as an...

Additional Note For Physicists

A variant on the doomsday argument appears to destroy manyworlds quantum theory.11 Or at least, it would seem to destroy those variants of many-worlds quantum theory in which, as was fairly plainly intended by the theory's first inventor, H.Everett, every observer splits at each successive moment into vastly more 'versions' of himself or herself one version for each possible set of observations which the laws of quantum physics allow to flow from the situation at the previous moment.12 If they believed that such repeated splitting really took place, people should expect to die very soon, virtually regardless of how much evidence there seemed to be against this, because there would be so vastly many more observer-versions at later minutes than at earlier ones, right up to the arrival of death the overwhelming majority of all observerversions would therefore find themselves within a few minutes of dying. Since, as was argued in this and in the previous chapter, one cannot escape that...

The case corresponding to an indeterministic world

Once again you find yourself in the small room. Can you conclude anything about the fall of the dice Let's specify, just as before, that God's dice are radically indeterministic. How they would fall couldn't have been settled by the situation at any earlier time. Let's say you know this, adding that you even know for sure that the dice are utterly fair, unloaded. You further know, as before, that only a double-six could prevent the creation of the large-room people. Finally, you know that the dice have yet to be thrown. (In fact this final point is needlessly specific. All that's essential is that the dice-throwing occur after the time of your own creation. It cannot then matter whether the throwing is before or after you get around to considering any argument analogous to Carter's doomsday argument. Still, the extra specificity can help to make it obvious how you should reason.) Can finding yourself in the small room give you any grounds for picturing the dice as landing double-six...

Brief Highlights of the Report Featuring over International Scientists

Netherlands Atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical weather prediction and former director of research at The Netherlands' Royal National Meteorological Institute, and an internationally recognized expert in atmospheric boundary layer processes, I find the Doomsday picture Al Gore is painting - a six-meter sea level rise, fifteen times the IPCC number - entirely without merit, Tennekes wrote. I protest vigorously the idea that the climate reacts like a home heating system to a changed setting of the thermostat just turn the dial, and the desired temperature will soon be reached.

Are We Running Out of

For all those who are not acquainted with oil matters, an initial warning is necessary. Today's petroleum doomsday visions have been made much more esoteric and convincing for the casual observer through the intensive use of formal statistical and probability models that seem to penetrate the unresolved mysteries of our subsoil. But in fact they do not. Even in our day no one knows how many treasures the earth's subsoil holds in its depths, and no acceptable method has been devised either to assess them or to calculate the extent of future oil recover-ability from the already-known reservoirs. In simple terms, searching for the ultimate figure about the earth's oil endowment is like searching for the Holy Grail a never-ending rush with several people claiming to have discovered what in effect remains a mystery. However, Campbell made subsequent revisions of his own estimates of ultimate recoverable petroleum resources respectively in 1989,1990, 1995, 1996, and 2002 each time...

Dont Like the Word Balance Says ABC News Global Warming Reporter

We are looking at serious mainstream scientists now tell us that maybe - it's over. It's hard. It's the kind of news you have to take in small doses, Blakemore explained. EPW note Many scientists dispute the notion that mankind has created a climate doomsday. See (http epw.senate.gov pressitem. cfm party rep& id 264777)

From little science to big science

It is clear that we cannot go up another two orders of magnitude as we have climbed the last five. If we did, we should have two scientists for every man, woman, child, and dog in the population, and we should spend on them twice as much money as we had. Scientific doomsday is therefore less than a century distant.

Inhofe Expresses Concerns over Ipccs Lack of Objectivity in Letter to Chairman Pachauri

When I became Chairman of the United States Senate's Committee on Environment and Public Works, one of my top three priorities was to improve the quality of environmental science used in public policy- making by removing politics from science. I have convened hearings on this subject and, more specifically, the issue of global warming science. The more I have researched the issue, the more convinced I have become that climate science is being co-opted by those who care more deeply about promoting doomsday scenarios to further their own, broader agendas than they do about scientific integrity. I am committed to returning integrity to the scientific process so that the focus is on objective scientific inquiry and assessment and not on influencing public opinion to support political goals.

Lingering Doubts and Concerns

Response Scientists have identified a range of impacts of global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has not issued a series of doomsday predictions but rather a carefully thought-out list of consequences based on data. (Consequences of global warming are addressed in detail in Chapter 7.) Climate models investigate a range of optimistic as well as business as usual scenarios. Sea level increases will be measurable but are not expected to flood coastal areas in the next few decades. Ice-free Arctic summers by the end of the century, increased droughts and floods from precipitation, reduction of the ice cover in Greenland, and intensified severe weather events are expected. Massive coastal flooding will not happen overnight and is not considered a done deal. However, continued buildup of greenhouse gases could irreversibly trigger that outcome. Disruption of the ocean currents that keep northern Europe more temperate is considered unlikely in the near future....

The case where the total number to be created was settled in advance

Why discuss the case where the filling or non-filling of the large room is settled even before any small-room people are created A main reason for discussing it is this. The real world might perhaps be fully deterministic, a world whose entire future had been settled by the fine details of the situation at the beginning of time. When the total number of people to be created is settled before the creation of anyone at all, this corresponds to the situation in a real world of that type, one in which (as thought experiments seem to have confirmed) the doomsday argument runs smoothly.

What on Earth Are We Doing

Yet we proceed to live as if our normal lives will continue. We bear a vague sense of pessimism about our future while we carry on with business as usual, and we worry more than we act. A strong majority of U.S. citizens, 83 , express concern about the environment and believe that at least some (if not immediate and drastic) action must be taken to address environmental problems, yet only 18 regard themselves as active participants in such efforts (Dunlap & Saad, 2001). Instead, we go to school or work, do the shopping and laundry, visit friends and take vacations when we can, and try not to think about the claim that the planet cannot possibly sustain our current lifestyles for very much longer. Perhaps we hope that the doomsday scientists will decide they got it wrong, or come up with some good technological fixes. If we wait it out, we may find that all will be well, after all.

The period of awakening

In the 1960s a new range of environmental problems were identified -industrial pollution, atomic radiation, urban sprawl - that tended to supplant conservation issues from most national political agendas. And as these problems came to be discussed in popular books and the mass media, a new socio-economic developmental perspective gradually came to be articulated an ecological paradigm in contrast to the industrial paradigm that had guided postwar development (Cotgrove 1982). As more books were published, so awareness grew and diagnoses of the problem became more alarmist, so that by the late 1960s when Paul Ehrlich published The Population Bomb, which was an even bigger bestseller than Silent Spring, a kind of doomsday, or at least crisis, mentality had emerged, giving the problems a new urgency. When combined with the philosophical critiques of modern technology published by Jacques Ellul, Herbert Marcuse, and Lewis Mumford, as well as the record of their spiritual journeys to the...

Explanations and consequences

41 The World Coal Institute's climate negotiations bulletin, ECOAL (1996 1), argues in this respect that 'A tip falls off an iceberg in the Arctic and the media from around the world are quick to prophesy our approaching doomsday. But reputable scientific work of extreme importance is often neglected and does not see the light of day.'

JO Palmer and E Pallant

Disasters created by chronic perturbations are as debilitating as acute disasters such as tsunamis and oil spills. French Creek is the most biologically diverse river in Pennsylvania but is threatened by invasive species, poorly managed farm animals, urban and agricultural runoff, leaky septic systems, and loss of riparian buffer zones. For chronic, non-point threats, prevention is the best protection and depends on education and action by watershed residents. Creek Connections at Allegheny College engages teachers and students throughout the watershed with biological and chemical research of the Creek and threats to its integrity. Through independent research, stream restoration projects and public presentations, students become an educated citizenry as vital to ecosystem protection as any regional or national response plan for more acute disasters.

Creek connections and French Creek

Their schools, communities, to their families, and to residents of the French Creek watershed. In addition they complete environmental restoration projects such as installation of streambank fencing to keep dairy cows out of waterways, planting trees in the riparian zone to lessen erosion, and transferring thousands of discarded tires from dumps to be recycled. The Creek Connections approach to French Creek is as vital to ecosystem protection as any national response plan for an emergency. The long-term health of this unique and vital ecosystem requires awareness - and an education plan - for coping with the insidious, low-level threats to diversity just as much as preparedness for a more newsworthy disaster.

Management Creeping Toward A National Drought Policy For The United States

Drought is a normal part of the climate for virtually all portions of the United States it is a recurring, inevitable feature of climate that results in serious economic, environmental, and social impacts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates average annual losses because of drought in the United States to be 6-8 billion, more than for any other natural hazard (FEMA, 1995). Yet the United States is ill prepared to effectively deal with the consequences Calls for action on drought policy and plan development in the United States date back to at least the late 1970s. The growing concern has resulted primarily from the inability of the federal government to adequately address the spiraling impacts associated with drought through the traditional reactive, crisis management approach. This approach has relied on ad hoc inter-agency committees that are quickly disbanded following termination of the drought event. The lessons (i.e., successes and failures) of these...

New Orleans projected flood losses

The flood extent (Figure 15.5) was determined from four different sources of data Landsat 5 imagery taken on August 31, 2005 Digital Globe imagery taken on September 3, 2005 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood extent maps as of August 31, 2005 and aerial reconnaissance photos taken at 1,525 m on August 30, 2005. Flood depth was determined by using high-resolution (5 m horizontal) LIDAR data, from which RMS constructed a digital terrain model with ground elevation values assigned to each cell in a 100 m x 100 m grid over the greater New Orleans area. The modeled flood depths were validated using aerial reconnaissance imagery taken on August 30, from which flood depths were assessed relative to surrounding structures, automobiles, and other distinguishable objects. A mapping of the

Overview of loss models

Hurricane loss models have traditionally consisted of an input set of historical or synthetic storms that constitute a frequency or occurrence model, and additional meteorological, vulnerability, and actuarial components. In support of these components, databases on historical events and their detailed characteristics are necessary. For average annual loss cost estimation, probability distributions governing the stochastic generation of events are also necessary. For a given, fixed exposure, the hurricane loss model would then be executed to simulate tens of thousands of years in order to produce loss cost estimates and attendant uncertainties in the estimates. This overview of hurricane loss model construction pertains both to the first loss model approved by the commission (the AIR model Clark, 1986, 1997) and to the current public domain model (Powell et al., 2005), as well as a model that has garnered ongoing funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS...

The growth of a green movement

In the early 1970s the growth of a green movement was by no means assured. Authoritarian survivalist thinking dominated much of the public debate about environmental crisis and it was only by the end of this decade that the themes of grassroots democracy and global egalitarianism were clearly established alongside ecology as the framework of the green identity. During the 1970s the green movement was shaped by the growth of an alternative milieu, in which the green movement overlapped with other social movements, particularly feminism, anarchism and libertarian socialism. This milieu was linked by the aim of seeking to build communities in which it would be possible to live in a way that broke with the conventions of mainstream society, based on challenging hierarchy and integrating personal lives and political change. It was the influence of this culture along with the heritage of the New Left, which marginalised survivalist currents in the environmental movement. New environmental...

The new ecological crisis an antiauthoritarian response

Concern about population growth is important for greens, but most argue that the reasons for high population growth in the south are principally due to poverty children provide hope of extra income and security in old age. Second. they point to the fact that western affluence is the principal cause of global ecological crisis 'roughly 80 per cent of the resources of the planet as well as its sinks are being used by the 20 per cent of the population that lives in Europe, North America, Oceania and Japan' (Anon. quoted in Guha, 2000 143). Also, while some environmentalists have favoured the kind of authoritarian measures suggested by the eco-survivalists, they have generally been excluded from green movements (an issue which will be tackled further in the next chapter). Greens therefore are optimistic that people can be persuaded to develop an ecologically sustainable lifestyle, and reject the eco-survivalist assumption that people are essentially self-interested and will have to be...

Preference Transformation And Democratic Citizenship

One of the questions green politics addresses, and upon which its practical success depends, is expressed in Elster's statement that 'the central concern of politics should be the transformation of preferences rather than their aggregation' (1983 35). Part of the reasoning behind this is that behavioural changes motivated by the internalisation of particular normative orientations is more effective and longer lasting than behavioural changes based on external or coercive imposition. In other words, changing one's lifestyle or pattern of consumption in the interests of sustainability is more effective if done out of a sense that one believes it is right to do so rather than because one is told to do so, or because it is simply expedient to do so. Sustainability policies then become less a modus vivendi or a prudential strategy, but more akin to an ecological version of a Rawlsian 'overlapping consensus'. But for this to work people must be genuinely committed to the moral rightness,...

The influence of the New Left

While most new environmental groups did not have as dramatic a start as NOAH they did to varying degrees mark a break with existing environmentalism in their anti-authoritarian ethos, in the political character of their analysis of the causes of environmental degradation, their use of protest and their vision of a new kind of society. There were also more conservative currents among the new environmental groups, although these were much less influential. For instance, in Britain, People, founded in 1973, which later became the Ecology Party and then the Green Party, was inspired by the more survivalist writings of Edward Goldsmith. Goldsmith's authoritarian views on questions such as the family and immigration were challenged by leftist activists within People, but it was not until the early 1980s when membership expanded beyond a few hundred, that a clear counter-cultural and anarchist-influenced wing of the party emerged (Rudig and Lowe 1986 275 Wall 1993 40). As well as the new...

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