How To Prepare For A Disaster Or Emergency

Survival MD By Dr. Scurtu

Survival MD by Robert Grey and Dr. Radu Scurtu, is a comprehensive survival guidebook focusing on preparing user and their family in emergency, when there is lack of medical facilities and pharmacies during crisis, such as natural disaster, terrorist attack, or complete economic collapse. You will learn how to create a real Medical First Aid Kit. The first aid kit will save your life. You should not have doubts about it. The guide will also teach you what to stock up starting today so that you are more prepared than ever. Creating the perfect first aid kit is not simple. It has to be complete and it has to be light so that you can carry it around with you. Since most crisis are difficult to predict and can come at any time, its important to remember that preparation is the best way to combat disaster. Not having the right knowledge and skills in case of an unexpected emergency can literally mean the difference between life and death. As a caring family man who has spent years researching survival education, I personally recommend the Survival MD program as I truly believe that it is one of the best and most comprehensive survival systems available. More here...

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Author: Robert Grey and Dr. Radu Scurtu
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Highly Recommended

The writer presents a well detailed summery of the major headings. As a professional in this field, I must say that the points shared in this book are precise.

This ebook does what it says, and you can read all the claims at his official website. I highly recommend getting this book.

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Climate Change Effects

Climate change results in temperature swings. Parts of the country that don't typically freeze may suddenly be plunged into short-term freeze conditions. In the early spring of 2007, southern California and Florida experienced extreme fluctuations in temperature that resulted in freezing conditions. News reports focused on the agricultural damage to the citrus industry, but many homeowners woke up with frozen plumbing. Water damage restoration contractors were kept busy cleaning up after the flooding that occurred from burst pipes. Regional building codes usually dictate how deeply water supply lines must be buried below the historical freeze thaw line. Erratic weather patterns may result in snap freezes in some areas that don't traditionally freeze. Other areas that do freeze may have even colder temperatures. The permanent fix is to dig the pipes deeper, but that is expensive. If you

Climates And Weather Explained

What do we mean by 'weather' and 'climate' How do we account for them Why is it necessary to understand meteorological processes to explain the climate These are some of the questions dealt with in Climates and Weather Explained, a comprehensive introduction to the study of the atmosphere, integrating climatology and meteorology. The book provides an entry to an understanding of the climate system, with clear explanations of basic principles, concepts and processes. It covers matters ranging from the origin of the atmosphere to the future of global climates. It is shown how patterns of evaporation, temperature, clouds, winds etc. arise from the weather and determine climates. The text is supported by a wealth of informative illustrations and a vast array of case studies demonstrating the relevance of the subject matter to everyday life. There is a focus on the southern hemisphere, to redress a bias in existing literature, which concentrates on northern hemisphere conditions. This...

Dawes object lessons in elementary schools

Dawes' Suggestive Hints towards Improved Secular Instruction, published in 1847, provided teachers countrywide with a common-sense explanation of things used in everyday life. The newly formed government education department agreed to pay the cost of the apparatus list published in Hints for any school qualified to use it, so that by 1857 about 8 per cent of elementary schools (3500 total) had the apparatus sets and the newly formed teacher training colleges were including his ideas in their curriculum.

Surface Water Supply Index

The SWSI, pronounced swazee, was developed by Shafer and Dezman (1982) to address limitations of the Palmer indices and incorporate water supply data, such as snow accumulation and melt, which are important in the western United States. The index is based on four components snowpack, streamflow, precipitation, and reservoir storage. Monthly data for each component are analyzed according to probabilities of occurrence, combined into an overall index, and weighted according to their relative contributions to surface water in the basin. A modified SWSI (Garen, 1993) provides stronger statistical foundations to the index, with drought categories and cumulative frequencies as follows An advantage of the SWSI is that it represents water supply conditions unique to each hydrological area, such as regions heavily influenced by snowpack. Limitations are that changing data sources or water supply sources require that the entire index be recalculated to account for changes in the frequency...

Health Impacts of Climate Change

Against this background, in 2008 the World Health Organization (WHO) chose the theme 'protecting health from climate change' for World Health Day.11 This involved public talks, media releases and national policy reports launched around the world by a variety of organisations. Dr Margaret Chan, Director of the WHO, stated that Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Climate change will affect, in profoundly adverse ways, some of the most fundamental determinants of health food, air, water. In the face of this challenge, we need champions throughout the world who will work to put protecting human health at the centre of the climate change agenda.12 Key messages for the 2008 World Health Day included that the health sector is one of the most affected by climate change, that climate change already accounts for more than 60 000 deaths from climate-related natural disasters every year and that many of the important global killers, such as malaria, diarrhoea and...

Emergency Planning and Community Rightto Know

The Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) is also known as SARA Title III since it was enacted as a freestanding law included in the SuperfUnd Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA). This law obligates facilities to provide local, state, and federal agencies with information on hazardous materials stored or in use at the premises. EPCRA covers four key issues emergency response planning, emergency release notification, reporting hazardous chemical storage, and toxic chemical release inventory (TRI). It, however, in no way limits what chemicals may be used, stored, transported, or disposed of at a facility. EPCRA was enacted in response to the chemical disaster in Bhopal, India, where residents and emergency responders were unaware of and unprepared for the lethal chemicals in their immediate environment. The State Emergency Response Commission (SERC) and Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) must be given information concerning facilities in their...

The impact of climate change on fresh water resources

Fresh Climate

Figure 7.7 Examples of current vulnerabilities of fresh water resources and their management in the background, a water stress map based on Alcamo et al. (2003a). See text for relation to climate change. The run-off in rivers and streams is what is left from the precipitation that falls on the land after some has been taken by evaporation and by transpiration from plants it is the major part of what is available for human use. The amount of run-off is highly sensitive to changes in climate even small changes in the amount of precipitation or in the temperature (affecting the amount of evaporation) can have a big influence on it. To illustrate this, Figure 7.8 shows estimates of the mean change in annual run-off between 1980-2000 and 2081-2100 under the SRES A1B scenario. There are changes of up to plus 50 or minus 50 in many places. Water availability in many locations and watersheds will change a great deal as the century progresses. Note that Figure 7.8 describes average annual...

Global climate change a new type of environmental problem

Of all the environmental issues that have emerged in the past few decades, global climate change is the most serious, and the most difficult to manage. It is the most serious because of the severity of harms that it might bring. Many aspects of human society and well being - where we live, how we build, how we move around, how we earn our livings, and what we do for recreation - still depend on a relatively benign range of climatic conditions, even though this dependence has been reduced and obscured in modern industrial societies by their wealth and technology. We can see this dependence on climate in the economic harms and human suffering caused by the climate variations of the past century, such as the El Nino cycle and the multi-year droughts that occur in western North America every few decades. Climate changes projected for the twentyfirst century are much larger than these twentieth-century variations, and their human impacts are likely to be correspondingly greater....

Definition of extreme events

Extreme events are generally easy to recognize but difficult to define. This is due to several reasons. First, there is no unique definition for what is meant by the word extreme several definitions are in common use. Second, the concept of extremeness is relative and so strongly depends on context. Third, the words severe, ''rare,'' ''extreme,'' and high-impact are often used interchangeably. * Extreme events are events that have extreme values of certain important meteorological variables. Damage is often caused by extreme values of certain meteorological variables, such as large amounts of precipitation (e.g., floods), high wind speeds (e.g., cyclones), high temperatures (e.g., heat waves), etc. Extreme is generally defined as either taking maximum values or exceedance above pre-existing high thresholds. Such events are generally rare for example, extreme wind speeds exceeding the 100-year return value, which have a probability of only 0.01 of occurring in any particular year.

Munich Re estimates of climaterelated losses

Munich Re has been compiling statistics on natural disasters for many years because they illustrate the need for risk management. Their definition of what are ''major natural catastrophes'' follows the criteria laid down by the United Nations the affected region's ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, interregional or international assistance is necessary, thousands are killed, hundreds ofthousands are made homeless, and there are substantial economic losses and or considerable insured losses. In this section we exclude those disasters like earthquakes and volcanoes, which are not weather related. In fact, we shall focus on the number of incidents, rather than on insurance claims, because the latter are a rather variable proportion of the total losses. Even the total losses depend on the vulnerability and wealth of the areas impacted, so they too are rather variable.

Climate Change as Interdisciplinary Study

Having mentioned several traditional academic disciplines, it is important to note that most of the climate change efforts at Tufts are interdisciplinary at some level. Although Tufts values and nurtures interdisciplinary work, it has to be acknowledged that a variety of challenges remain. Some courses with climate change content are cross-listed in more than one school or department. One course is cross-listed in three schools (Engineering, Arts and Sciences, and Law and Diplomacy). This offers a fabulous opportunity for very different kinds of students to meet one another and grapple with the same material from a variety of perspectives. At the same time, students and faculty can face challenges with these arrangements related to scheduling, calendars, background knowledge, and expectations. For courses that are cotaught by faculty in different disciplines, discussions with department chairs may be needed to emphasize the value of the course to each department. A climate change...

Is The Doomsday Argument Easily Refuted

Already embattled on other fronts, Carter has presented the doomsday argument only in lectures and seminars, never in print. However, I published it on p. 214 of Universes in a long foot-note. Since then I have investigated it in several articles. The argument is certainly controversial. So far, however, I have managed to find only one good ground for doubting it. Suppose that the cosmos is radically indeterministic, perhaps for reasons of quantum physics. Suppose also that the indeterminism is likely to influence how long the human race will survive. There then isn't yet any relevant firm fact, 'out there in the world' and in theory predictable by anybody who knew enough about the present arrangement of the world's particles, concerning how long it will survive like the fact that hidden cards include a definite number of aces, a number you are trying to estimate, or like the fact that exactly nine or exactly sixty names remain to be drawn from a lottery urn, after your own name has...

Climate change due to global warming

The increase in carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels (coal, petrol, etc.) has led to an increase in global temperature. Although the temperature increase is comparatively small, it has begun to have a major effect on the climate, with a disruption of weather systems and a raising of the sea level. This has been most marked on a system of currents off the west coast of South America known as the El Nino southern oscillation. Climatic systems are reversed or severely disrupted, with heavy rains and flooding when no rain is normally expected and drought conditions when there should normally be rain. Countries in South America, Southeast Asia and Oceania are the most affected, but its effects are felt all over the world. Even without El Nino, likely that most of the effects will be concentrated in the poorer regions of the world, with an increase in vector-borne and diar-rhoeal diseases, malnutrition and natural disasters.

Reframing the Climate Crisis after Kyoto

When it became clear that the push for the Kyoto treaty unwittingly created a mental framework that failed to move or motivate most Americans, PSR, like many other U.S. environmental groups, went back to basics in public education and grassroots organizing. In the subsequent years, putting climate work in terms of health has changed the approach to climate and organizing by PSR and national-level groups such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, Union of Concerned Scientists, and Environmental Defense. As detailed in this book, there's a lot to learn from this process. At PSR, we began, with help from a number of leading foundations, by carrying out state-by-state reports and grassroots organizing campaigns in eighteen states over the years 1998 to 2001. Called Death by Degrees (and later changed to Degrees of Danger out of respect and sensitivity after the September 11, 2001, terrorists attacks), the reports were the first to link climate change and human health effects to a...

Other factors that might influence climate change

So far climate change due to human activities has been considered. Are there other factors, external to the climate system, which might induce change Chapter 4 showed that it was variations in the incoming solar energy as a result of changes in the Earth's orbit that triggered the ice ages and the major climate changes of the past. These variations are, of course, still going on what influence are they having now Some scientists have suggested that all climate variations, even short-term ones, might be the result of changes in the Sun's energy output. Such suggestions are bound to be somewhat speculative because the only direct measurements of solar output that are available are those since 1978, from satellites outside the disturbing effects of the Earth's atmosphere. These measurements indicate a very constant solar output, changing by about 0.1 between a maximum and a minimum in the cycle of solar magnetic activity indicated by the number of sunspots. There have also been...

Anarchy the state and power

Taking the work of Kenneth Waltz, in particular in his Theory oflnternatmal Politics (1979), as representative of this school of thought, this chapter tries to outline how neorealist theory would analyse the politics of global warming. The focus will be on two interrelated forms of neorealist explanation within International Relations those which focus on power (between states) as the cause of outcomes, and those which focus on anarchy as a generator of outcomes. I will try to suggest why neither gives an adequate account of the politics of global warming, and why both in some senses might be positively dangerous. The chapter will begin with an exegesis of neorealist theory. It will ignore some aspects which I regard not to be of central relevance for the present purposes. For example, I will not deal with the parts of Waltz's theory which examine balance-of-power theory, and only touch a little on his treatment of the implications of bipolarity and multipolarity. Following this, I...

Managed Governance Anarchy versus Rule Based Order

There are two major schools of thought at the international level on the role and significance of international law and policy. According to one, we live in a global anarchy and the rules at the international level have minimal or no real significant influence on life. Realists and neo-realists are of the opinion that each country focuses on its own population and will use its power at the international level to seek conditions that are most favorable to it. They argue that international rules are at best epiphenomenal and that multilateralism is a poor tool. This is the view also of the dominant political leaders in the United States. The U.S. sees itself as the hub of the world, with spokes leading out to other countries 18 . As a result, the U.S. is declining to participate in a number of international environmental treaties, even though it is fairly active within the World Trade Organization and the Bretton Woods Institutions. The former is seen as promoting its economic...

Changing sea levels and natural hazards

Sea levels have changed throughout geological time (e.g. Haq et al., 1987) in response to a range of different and sometimes interacting isostatic, eustatic and tectonic processes (Dawson, 1992 Box 6.1). Natural hazards related to such sea-level change are surprisingly many and varied, and the relationship between the two is often far from clear. Broadly speaking, rising sea levels can be expected to increase the threat to coastal zones, primarily owing to the inundation or flooding of low-lying terrain (see Chapter 3) but also through increased erosion, d stabilisation and collapse of elevated coastlines. Higher sea levels will also exacerbate the impact and destructive potential of storm surges and tsunami, partly because of the elevated level of the sea surface but also through increasing the exposure of many coastlines as a result of inundation of wetlands and other protective environments. The hazard implications of falling sea levels are less obvious, although it has been...

Climate Change Componies

Water-Supply Engineering, 1st ed. New York John Wiley & Sons, 1900. Stanford MJ. Water supply assurance and drought mitigation options for state regulatory commissions key stakeholders (executive summary), NRRI 02-13 es. National Regulatory Research Institute at The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, November 2002.

Physical Impacts On Unregulated Sectors Water Supply and Treatment

Dust Devil Whirlwind

It could be argued that the water supply and treatment industry is the human activity most immediately affected by climate change, given its direct dependence for its raw material on everyday experience of precipitation and temperature. In their response to the Third Carbon Disclosure Project, the directors of RWE, the utilities conglomerate, stated For our water business, adaptation to climate change is a major challenge. More uneven distribution (of water) together with a rise in temperatures will lead to serious concern over availability of sufficient water supplies. If the expectation of society to achieve progressively higher quality standards is maintained, this could lead to additional use of energy and higher emissions, notwithstanding One thing that is certain about climate change is that it will inject a great deal of uncertainty into our lives, especially those whose lives relate to the production of weather-dependent products, like drinking water. In the water supply...

Impact of climate change on water supplydemand balance

Climate anomaly is an important factor influencing the demand of agricultural and industrial water resource. Taking the Nanjing and Hangzhou city located in eastern China as examples, the demand of production water exhibits a moderate positive correlation with the July temperature. In addition, the irrigation water for agriculture is closely correlated with the precipitation in Jiangsu province (Yuan et al. 2000). Liu (1997) used the output of GCM model with 2 * CO2 concentration (by 2030) as input of the monthly water balance model and the water resources comprehensive assessment model to investigate the possible changes of annual and monthly runoff, the evaporation, and the difference between supply and demand of water resources in 2030. The results showed that in most of the river basins, the influence of climate change on water supply system was confined to the land-surface runoff and water supply of reservoirs due to the characteristics of water supply and demand in China, while...

Costing the impacts extreme events

In the previous paragraphs the impacts of climate change have been described in terms of a variety of measures for instance, the number of people affected (e.g. by mortality, disease or by being displaced), the gain or loss of agricultural or forest productivity, the loss of biodiversity, the increase in desertification, etc. However, the most widespread measure, looked for by many policymakers, is monetary cost or benefit. But before describing what has been done so far to estimate the overall costs of impacts, we need to consider what is known about the cost of damage due to extreme events (such as floods, droughts, windstorms or tropical cyclones). As has been constantly emphasised in this chapter these probably constitute the most important element in climate change impacts. Because the incidence of such extreme events has increased significantly in recent decades, information about the cost of the damage due to them has been tracked by insurance companies. They have catalogued...

Model Range Related Changes Are Climate Related

Dance changes in the short-term suggest that the range-related pattern may take many years to appear. It is likely that species respond individually to climate change depending on thermal sensitivities, reproductive strategies, mobility, life span, and interactions with other species (Graham and Grimm 1990).The pattern we see today thus integrates changes by many species over many years. This may help to explain the failure of other investigators to find such strong range-related changes in their own reexaminations of historical data sets that date back only 20 or 30 years. For example, John Pearse and collaborators, in reexamining extensive intertidal faunal surveys originally conducted from 1971 to 1973 from Santa Cruz, California, did not find a strong range-related pattern of change overall, but did find increases in several southern species (J. Pearse, unpublished data).

Environmental change and natural hazards the impact in the twentyfirst century

From the perspective of the first year of a new millennium, the impact of rapid-onset geophysical hazards over the course of the next century is difficult to forecast, particularly in light of the major uncertainties attached to predictions of environmental change over this period. Perhaps some constraints can be imposed, however, on the basis of climate change impact forecasts made in a recent report by the UK Meteorological Office (1999) (Box 8.1), and based upon the second Hadley Centre climate model. Assuming unmitigated greenhouse emissions, the report predicts a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius by 2080, accompanied by a 41-cm rise in global mean sea level. Substantial diebacks of tropical forests and grasslands are forecast, while forest growth is promoted at higher latitudes. Water availability is predicted to fall in some parts of the world while rising in others, and patterns of cereal yields are expected to undergo similar dramatic changes. In natural hazard...

Natural hazards the human dimension

The impact of natural hazards on society is clearly on the rise, although it still falls far below that due to environmental degradation and, in particular, civil strife (Fig. 8.1). Figures for the period 1900-90 indicate that almost 90 per cent of disaster-related deaths over the period can be attributed to war and famine, with all the natural hazards together making up the remainder. Notwithstanding this, the numbers of people affected by natural hazards during the 1970s and 1980s fell little short of a billion - somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of the Earth's population. With over 250 million people being affected by the 1996 and 1998 Chinese floods alone, similar figures for the last decade of the millennium are likely easily to top the billion mark. The increasing impact of natural hazards over the past halfcentury is without doubt linked to rapidly rising populations in particularly vulnerable regions. At greatest risk are the poorest inhabitants of developing countries,...

The Future of Disaster Preparedness

As losses increase and casualties remain frequent and widespread, the problem of natural catastrophes is topical and pressing. Expertise is gradually accumulating on how to best tackle disaster, and new agencies for managing it are forming at the local, regional, national, and international levels. For such efforts to succeed, rigorous standards need to be established for emergency planning, management, and training. There needs to be more investment in both structural and nonstructural mitigation As it is based on organization rather than civil engineering, the latter is often more cost-effective than the former. From the point of view of understanding disaster as a phenomenon, more attention needs to be given to the role of context and culture in perceiving and interpreting the needs generated by hazards and disaster impacts. see also Economics.

Global warming and climate change impacts in East Asia

Clearly, the global effects of climate change are potentially major, and will likely lead to many adverse consequences, difficult choices, and expensive adaptation measures for much of the world's population. The countries of East Asia will not be immune to these changes, and in most cases will be among the worst affected due to their vulnerable geographies and economies. Effects may not always be adverse, but even if they are not they will likely increase unpredictability and require adaptation. What are the expected impacts of climate change in East Asia Several research reports have anticipated the effects of climate change for the region. Some of their findings are summarized here to convey the scale and nature of the potential changes, many of which are elaborated in later chapters of this book. According to a 1997 report from the IPCC on anticipated regional impacts of climate change (IPCC 1997),5 temperate Asia (including Japan, the Koreas, and most of China) has experienced an...

Climate Change And Waterresource Systems

Planning and construction of major water-resource systems have a time constant of 30 to 50 years. In the past, these activities have been based on the explicit assumption of unchanging climate. The probably serious economic and social consequences of a carbon dioxide-induced climatic change within the next 50 to 100 years warrant careful consideration by planners of ways to create more robust and resilient water-resource systems that will, insofar as possible, mitigate these effects. Dracup, J. A. (1977). Impact on the Colorado River Basin and Southwest water supply. In Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply. National Academy of Sciences, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Howe, C. W., and A. H. Murphy (1981). The utilization and impacts of climate information on the development and operations of the Colorado River system. In Managing Climatic Resources and Risks. Panel on the Effective Use of Climate Information in Decision Making, Climate Board, National Academy of...

Untapped Water Supply

The nearly 50 water demand reductions achieved by the city of Cheyenne, Wyoming, during record-breaking heat and minimal rain in the summer of2002 exemplify how adherence to simple and reasonable conservation practices can enable a drought-stricken water supply system to stay robust. According to Clint Bassett, Cheyenne's water conservation specialist, We encourage everyone to keep conserving water (WaterTech E-News, 2003). Lawn watering restrictions during one month alone July 2002 lowered average demand to 18.1 million gallons (68.5 megaliters) per day (mgd) compared to 34 mgd (128.7 megaliters) for the same month in the previous year a 15.9 mgd (60.2 megaliters) savings. Further, Cheyenne's reservoirs were 83.5 full in the summer of 2002 compared to 63 the previous year without conservation. Cheyenne's conservation program results created a water reserve or bank that enabled it to better withstand even more severe drought conditions had they occurred. Produce (Unigro, Pic, England)...

What are natural hazards

Although the nomenclature is sometimes ambiguous, natural hazards are usually defined as extreme natural events that pose a threat to people, their property and their possessions. Natural hazards become natural disasters if and when this threat is realised. Rapid-onset natural hazards, which form the focus of this book, can be distinguished from the often disastrous consequences of environmental degradation, such as desertification and drought, not only by their sudden occurrence but also by their relatively short duration. Natural hazards that are geophysical in nature, rather than biological, such as insect infestations or epidemics, arise from the normal physical processes operating in the Earth's interior, at its surface, or within its enclosing atmospheric envelope. Most geophysical hazards can be conveniently allocated to one or other of three categories geological (earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides), atmospheric (windstorms, severe precipitation, temperature extremes, and...

Carters doomsday argument

After what has just been said, it should come as no surprise that some centrally important principles of risk analysis have only lately been noticed and are sometimes violently resisted. Brandon Carter's doomsday argument is a prime example. As will be examined at greater length in Chapter 5, the argument exploits the fact that we ought to prefer (other things being equal) those theories whose truth would have made us more likely to find whatever we have in fact found. While this might seem fairly evidently forceful, many risk analysts have failed to reject Carter's argument only because they have never come across it. They haven't thought of asking themselves and would positively refuse to ask themselves where a human could expect to be in human history.

Preparing and Protecting American Families from the Onslaught of Catastrophe

American families need to be better prepared for and protected from mega-catastrophes. Hurricane Katrina underscored this point with the same force and clarity that the savage attacks of 11 September 2001 crystallized our national awareness and galvanized our national thinking about the immediate need to improve and enhance our preparation and defenses with regard to terrorism. ProtectingAmerica.org is committed to finding better ways to prepare for and protect American families from the devastation caused by natural catastrophes. I co-chair the organization with James Lee Witt, the former director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and our coalition members include the American Red Cross, other first responder groups, emergency management officials, insurers, municipalities, small businesses, Fortune 100 companies and private citizens. The membership is broad and diverse and includes members from virtually every state in the nation. ProtectingAmerica.org was formed to raise...

The Doomsday Argument Recapitulation And Then New Comments

As this chapter,1 like the others, is intended to be readable in isolation, it starts with a brief recapitulation. The doomsday argument, originated by B.Carter and then published and defended by J.Leslie, with variants by J.R.Gott and H.B.Nielsen, points out that you and I would be fairly unremarkable among human observers if the human race were to end shortly roughly 10 per 'Doomsday argument' can be a misleading label since all that is involved is a magnification of risk-estimates. Suppose, for example, that the 'total risk' of Doom Soon the probability that the human race will, presumably through its dangerous behaviour, become extinct inside some fairly short period is judged by you to be 10 per cent before you consider the argument. When you do come to consider it, this might lead you to a revised estimate of 80 per cent. But notice that the newly estimated 80 per cent risk of Doom Soon, besides being no excuse for utter despair, would have been arrived at against the background...

Climate change impacts in Asian countries

Flooding, one of the main natural disasters in China, occurs frequently, not only in southern China where a humid monsoon climate prevails but also in arid and semiarid northern China. Changes in risk of flooding are considered to be one of the potential impacts of climate change, since some studies indicate an increase in frequency intensity of heavy rain. On the other hand, the additional investment in infrastructure for preventing flood disasters in the early decades of this century have the potential to mitigate not only the additional flood disasters caused by future climate change but also those which currently occur because of climate variability. (i) policy makers do not arrange adaptation investment for projected damage, and climate change does not occur (baseline), (ii) policy makers do not arrange adaptation investment for projected damage, but climate change does occur, (iii) policy makers arrange adaptation investment for projected damage, but climate change does not...

Weatherrelated natural hazards and climate change

Recent weather-related disasters such as the examples in Chapter 1 have demonstrated the vulnerability of many communities to natural hazards caused by extreme weather windstorms, floods, hailstorms, snow and ice storms, droughts, wildfires, heatwaves and cold waves. Therefore any increase in the frequency or severity of such events would probably be the most noticeable and damaging aspect of anthropogenic climate change, particularly where vulnerability to these hazards is also increasing (Houghton, 1997, chapters 1 and 6). Moreover, it has been known for some time that because such events are related to extreme statistical fluctuations in the weather about its average values, changes in average weather conditions (e.g. global warming) can be accompanied by significant changes in the frequency of extreme weather events too (Wigley, 1985). It certainly seems that extreme events such as the great storm of 1987 in the UK and the 1988 heatwave in the USA helped to stimulate public...

NotSoNatural Disasters

Ajor natural disasters have always happened. Storms, hurricanes, floods, and droughts are all part of the planet's natural weather and climate system. In the future, however, humanity is going to be facing more and more intense versions of these phenomena and they're going to be anything but natural disasters. Civilization or more properly, the greenhouse gases (refer to Chapter 2) that civilization pumps into the atmosphere will bring them on. Earth could be facing more droughts, hurricanes, and forest fires, heavier rainfalls, rising sea levels, and major heat waves. The excess carbon dioxide that people put into the air might even disrupt the carbon cycle and turn the planet's life-support system into a vicious cycle.

Climate change as crisis

Climate change as a conventional environmental crisis Vital to the rationale for the international response to climate change is its depiction as an environmental crisis. Oral traditions, history, and scientific research tell of the associations between climatic conditions and social well-being, a subject of long and active debate. Although the linkage can easily be exaggerated, such as in the hands of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century climatic and geographic determinists (of whom Elsworth Huntington is perhaps the most notorious - see Fleming 1998), climate has shaped human life on earth, from the evolution of our species to development of cultures (Schneider and Londer 1984). Brief or extended periods of extreme climatic conditions have wrecked havoc on many civilizations throughout history and pre-history. Conversely, there appear to be strong associations in the pre-modern era between human development and benign, stable climate (Lamb 1982). Yet, a cautionary note must be...

Box Impact of Climate Change on China

The energy projections in this Outlook make climate change an important challenge for the country. China's first National Climate Change Programme (NDRC, 2007), published in June 2007, recognises this and notes that climate change will bring about significant impacts on China's natural ecosystems and social economic system in the future. This finding echoes those of an IPCC report on impacts of climate change, released a couple of months previously (IPCC, 2007). The issues of most concern are rising sea levels, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and glacial retreat in the north-west. Even without global warming, China's climate presents major challenges. Most of China already experiences seasonal extremes of temperature, precipitation is unevenly distributed and natural disasters have had severe impact. More than one-quarter of China's area is already affected by desertification. Over 18 000 km of coastline and more than 5 000 islands are at risk in the event of a...

Combining Estimated Risks When Using The Doomsday Argument

The estimated total risk of Doom Soon cannot possibly exceed 100 per cent, no matter how greatly it is magnified by doomsdayargument considerations. It is therefore very wrong to Suppose, for example, that we started by thinking that the risk associated with high-energy experiments stood at 1 per cent, the only other cloud on the horizon being a 9 per cent risk associated with pollution. The doomsday argument might then perhaps encourage us to re-estimate those risks as each eight times greater than they had initially seemed but certainly not as thirteen times greater, because this would mean estimating the total risk as 130 per cent.

How natural disasters caused by climate change affect women

Natural disasters, which will increase in the wake of climate change, affect women and men differently. Women, as main caregivers, are more likely to be indoors particularly in developing countries when a disaster occurs and won't be able to escape. Even if they do survive, women tend to stay within the community longer afterwards to care for their families, thus exposing themselves to deadly diseases. Although not linked to global warming, the grave impact that natural disasters have on women can be seen in the death toll from the major Asian tsunami that struck at the end of 2005 and hit the province of Aceh in Indonesia, where 75 percent of those who died were women. When the death toll from natural disasters has significant gender differences, the resulting gender imbalance in the society can have major, long-term negative consequences. The Asian tsunami left the society with a three-to-one ratio of males to females. With so many mothers gone, the area experienced increases in...

Climate Change and Its Potential Impacts on Water Supply

In 2005, a study lead by the SCRIPPS Institution of Oceanography and published in the November 17, 2005, issue of the journal Nature investigated the effects of global warming on water supplies around the world. This study concluded that global warming will reduce glaciers and storage packs of snow in regions around the world, causing water shortages and other problems that will impact millions of people. Especially ice and snow-dependent regions will experience costly disruptions to water supply and water management systems. For example, it is estimated that vital water resources from the Sierra Nevada range in California may suffer a 15 to 30 reduction in the twenty-first century as a result of reduced snow pack runoff. Studies warn that even more severe problems may occur in regions depending on water from glaciers since their meltwater cannot be replaced. Vanishing glaciers will have the greatest impact on water supplies in China, India, and rest of Asia.9 These stark realities of...

Glaciers and water supply in Central Asia

On average, glacier melt contributes 10-20 per cent of the total river runoff in Central Asia39,120. During dry and hot years, the input of glacier water into summer river flow could be as high as 70-80 per cent, compared to 20-40 per cent in normal years. This proportion is critical for agriculture - the economic sector that consumes about 90 per cent of water resources and is highly dependent on water availability. During the severe droughts of 2000-2001 in the southern districts of Central Asia, glacier water played a vital role in sustaining agricultural production. Irrigated crops such as cotton have survived, while most rain-fed crops, especially cereals, failed. This has strongly affecting the food security of millions of people in Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran. It is expected that glacier recession in the long term could reduce water supply, affecting the agricultural sector and energy security, thereby destabilizing the political situation since many ofthe rivers are...

The costs and opportunities of climate change in Southeast Asia

Chapter 2 summarizes many of the broad anticipated effects of climate change. The second section of this book illuminates many of the concerns and policy-making challenges faced by the world's largest developing country China. In Chapter 11, Joy V Galvez helps us appreciate the impacts of climate change - and their implications for policy making - in a much smaller and arguably even more vulnerable developing country of East Asia the Philippines. Her summary of many key issues and concerns in the Philippines highlight some possible differences in perceived interests and strategies of the poorer countries in East Asia. As Galvez points out, the Philippines is a hot spot for natural hazards. As such, it is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and she describes in some detail many of those vulnerabilities first introduced in Chapter 2. The sectors in the Philippines projected to suffer the most from climate change-related impacts are water resources, agriculture, coastal resources,...

Natural hazards and us

Of the hazards that many of our fellow inhabitants of planet Earth have to face almost on a daily basis. The reinsurance company Munich Re., who, for obvious reasons, have a considerable interest in this sort of thing, estimate that up to 15 million people were killed by natural hazards in the last millennium, and over 3.5 million in the last century alone. At the end of the second millennium AD, the cost to the global economy reached unprecedented levels, and in 1999 storms and floods in Europe, India, and South East Asia, together with severe earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan and devastating landslides in Venezuela, contributed to a death toll of 75,000 and economic losses totalling 100 billion US . The last three decades of the twentieth century each saw a billion or so people suffer due to natural disasters. Unhappily, there is little sign that hazard impacts on society have diminished as a consequence of improvements in forecasting and hazard mitigation, and the outcome of the...

The Framework Convention On Climate Change And The Cop Process

In 1992, before the IPCC identified the human fingerprint on global warming, the world was already concerned that human activities enhance the natural greenhouse effect and that this will result in additional warming of the earth's surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind and determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations. 23 In response to this challenge, the UNFCCC was entered into to Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow 19 U.N. Environment Programme, 2002 Natural Disasters Set to Cost Over 70 Billion (Oct. 29, 2002) available at www.enn.com extras see also WMO, WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2001 (2001) available at (reporting on record floods and other natural weather related disasters in 2001),...

Modeling the earths climate

Today, several scientific endeavors are attempting to model the Earth's weather and climate for a variety of reasons, such as for farming, urban- ization, and emergency preparedness and for economic, scientific, political, and humanitarian reasons. GISS has taken a lead and become one of the premier groups involved in modeling climate in order to better understand it. One of the main goals of the researchers is to be able to anticipate the effect climate change will have on society and the environment. Although they are involved with several types of models, they are currently focusing most on global climate models (GCMs). These are large-scale models with the ability to simulate the entire Earth and all the forces that affect it, both human-induced and natural. For example, natural forces include volcanic eruptions, variations in insolation (incoming solar radiation), and changes in the Earth's orbital path. Human-induced forces include pollution (increasing greenhouse gases from...

Climate Regime and the Cobenefits from Regional Cooperation

Assuming a regional cooperation, Heller and Shukla (2004) show that the energy trade would yield direct economic benefits due to energy savings from improved fuel and technology choices and would lower investments in energy supply. The benefits are valued at US 319 billion from 2010 to 2030. The economic growth of the region would increase by 1 percent each year, benefiting an overwhelming number of the world's poor. Such cooperation would in addition deliver a cumulative carbon saving of 1.4 GT for the period 2010 to 2030, or 70 percent of the global mitigation by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol standard over the estimated baseline emissions (Chandler et al. 2002), including the original commitment by United States at Kyoto. The energy changes would also reduce loads of SO2 in the region by nearly 30 percent. In addition the balanced hydro development would yield spillover benefits that are synergistic with adaptation needs, among which are enhanced water supply and flood control.

The Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Evolution of Carbon

Water Supply and Treatment 90 Institutional Investors and Climate Change 111 Barriers to the Financial Consideration of Climate Change 127 Institutional Investors and Climate Change 130 Institutional Investors' Group on Climate Change Investor Network on Climate Risk (INCR) 135 The Chicago Climate Exchange 143 Climate Change and Environmental Security Individuals, Health Effects of Climate Change 173 Direct Effects of Temperature Extremes Heat Waves and Cold Spells 174 Indirect Effects of Climate Change Vector-Borne Climate Systems and National Sovereignty 181 Litigation over Responsibility for Climate Change 232 Is Carbon Finance Likely to Help Us Avert Dangerous Levels of Climate Change 234 Carbon Finance within the Broader Field of Environmental

Contemporary climate and hydrological regime of the Nile

From the climatological point of view, Egypt is the northeastern edge of the Sahara belt (Fig. 4.1) and its extreme aridity is caused by the descent of tropical air masses, which causes them to become hot and dry. Along the Mediterranean coast, a narrow strip of its land is influenced during winter by the cyclonic system of the westerlies. The annual average precipitation over most of Egypt is less than 50 mm and only along the coast does it reach about 100 mm. Yet Egypt, since ancient times, has been inhabited by an agricultural society because of the water brought by the Nile (Fig. 4.1). This river is the longest in the world, measuring about 6600 km from its headwaters in Rwanda to the northern edge of its delta. It has a relatively high constancy of flow and of periodicity of its fluctuations. There are several reasons for this. The Nile is fed by precipitation falling on the subequatorial countries of east Africa, the source of this moisture being the southwesterly air streams...

Opportunities For Technological Interventions And Climate Science Applications

Gleick (2003) describes the rise of soft path approaches that complement physical infrastructure with lower cost community-scale systems, decentralized and open decision making, water markets where actually needed, equitable pricing, application of efficient technology, and environmental protection. Given the lack of sites left for new dams on the Colorado and the economic and environmental costs associated with dams, soft path approaches are widely viewed as viable alternatives to supply enhancement. The Council of State Governments (2003) in a recent report identified several such soft path mechanisms being employed to different degrees to combat overuse. These include pricing structures to promote water use efficiency measurement of water usage audits of commercial, domestic, and industrial uses water reuse and recycling management of water system pressure retrofitting and replacement of water fixtures promotion of water-efficient appliances improving infrastructure quality...

Managing Water Supply For Freshwater Ecosystem

Profound impacts on freshwater ecosystems could result from a doubling of atmospheric C02. In addition to increases in mean ambient temperature, climate change models predict declining levels of soil moisture, changes in timing and intensity of rainfall, shifting of storm tracks, and increasing frequency and intensity of drought periods. Shriner and Street (1998) suggest that North American non-forested ecosystems could experience losses of migratory waterfowl and mammal breeding and forage habitats, invasions of exotic species, and increased sediment loading into rivers and lakes. Novel assemblages of plant and animal species could result as the ranges of some species expand while other ranges decline (McKinney & Lockwood, 1999 Lockwood & Duncan, 1999). Source of water supply - Wetlands are becoming increasingly important as sources of ground and surface water with the growth of urban centers and dwindling ground and surface water supplies. California's San Luis National Wildlife...

What climate changes are likely

The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some aspects of human-induced climate change exactly how fast it will occur, exactly how much it will change, and exactly where those changes will take place. In contrast, scientists are confident of other predictions. Mid-continent warming will be greater than over the oceans, and there will be greater warming at higher latitudes. Some polar and glacial ice will melt, and the oceans will warm both effects will contribute to higher sea levels. The hydrologic cycle will change and intensify, leading to changes in water supply as well as flood and drought patterns. Human-induced climate change is only an issue if it is large enough and rapid enough to create real problems for natural ecosystems and for human societies. In this and the following chapter we will look at the magnitude and rate of climate change, including sea-level rise and changes in extreme events, that are likely to result from human-induced emissions of...

Impacts of extreme events

While many of the extreme events discussed here have been, and will increasingly be, costly in social, economic, and environmental terms, it needs to be emphasized once again that strong impacts are not necessarily or exclusively related to extreme weather events. Indeed, many of the geomorphologic hazards in the Alps are the result of long-term climatic and geological forcings that at some stage result in a particular threshold exceedance leading to sudden and intense slope instabilities. Impacts of climate change in the Alps can be placed into five broad categories hydrology, snow, and ice plants, forest ecosystems, and mountain biodiversity human health (this aspect will not be discussed further here) socioeconomic sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and hydropower and financial services such as insurance. While extreme events may have a significant impact on one or more of these sectors, they can also be viewed as short-term and rapid ''pulses of energy'' into systems that are...

Responsibility Competence and Problem Ownership The Local Dilemma of Climate Strategy Implementation

The common-pool resource character of climate, and the existing distribution of authority and responsibility, create intricate problems of assigning - as well as of accepting and being able to carry out - the responsibility for climate change abatement. Greenhouse gas emissions are both international and local in origin, and they have internationally dispersed, as well as locally concentrated, effects. Finding a rational and, at the same time, politically feasible distribution of responsibility for abatement action is thus an extremely delicate affair. A purely geographical approach, whether it is based on local or national jurisdictions, may lead both those governmental levels to argue that not all of the abatement is 'their table'. Sectoral approaches involving private producers may lead to protests against 'unfair or uncertified loads' of responsibility. Discussions of consumer- and producer-based approaches to ascribing responsibility for climate change problems point to further...

Climate Extremes And Society

The past few decades have brought extreme weather and climate events to the forefront of societal concerns. Ordinary citizens, industry, and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts. Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors. The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond and adapt to climate variability, regardless of its source. It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society - how these extremes have varied in the past, and how they might change in the future -and of the types of effort that will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes. This review volume is divided into two sections one examining the evidence for recent and projected changes in extremes of...

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina Death Toll

Hurricane Katrina seen from above. (NASA Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team) At 1 30 a.m., Monday, August 29, Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with peak winds of approximately 150 mph (240 kph). Its minimum pressure of 918 millibars (mbar) made it the third strongest hurricane to strike the United States. Although the storm had been headed straight for New Orleans, it veered slightly eastward as it neared the Gulf Coast, so that the city was struck by the less powerful, western eye wall of the storm. While New Orleans was spared the most intense winds and highest storm surge, the entire Gulf Coast, including Louisiana, Hurricane Katrina seen from above. (NASA Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team) Flooding in New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Lake Pontchartrain, at the top of the photo, is the source of the water. At the bottom, near the banks of the Mississippi River, is the relatively high ground that did not become...

Doomsday Argument

The Doomsday Argument (DA) is an anthropic argument purporting to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will become extinct relatively soon. Originated by the astrophysicist Brandon Carter and developed at length by the philosopher John Leslie,8 DA purports to show that we have neglected to fully take into account the indexical information residing in the fact about when in the history of the human species we exist. Leslie (1996) - in what can be considered the first serious study of GCRs facing humanity and their philosophical aspects - gives a substantial weight to DA, arguing that it prompts immediate re-evaluation of probabilities of extinction obtained through direct analysis of particular risks and their causalmechanisms. The balls in each urn are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, Now take one ball at random from the left urn it shows the number 7. This clearly is a strong indication that the left urn contains only 10 balls. If the odds originally...

DMS and climate

Marine Atmosphere Boundary Layer

With the above reservations, primary production in the ocean is thus responsible for a considerable proportion of the tropospheric aerosols, and thus cloud droplets, that contribute to the climate system in various ways (see 3.5). We have seen that primary production is highly variable in both space and time ( 4.1.2) an additional complication with DMS production is its strong dependence on species. The reasons for this, and a good knowledge of the emission rates of different plankton, are presently elusive. The causes are presumably linked to the osmotic processes across cell boundaries, and hence may partially depend on salinity and temperature. The differences in species and seasonal Fig. 4.12. Diagram of the feedback loop involving climate and planktonic production of DMS. droplets tends to increase the net surface area of the droplets, and hence the cloud albedo by reflecting more solar radiation. Thus if DMS were to increase, the net effect might be a decrease in the input of...

Water supply

A city's water supply is critically important for a number of reasons. First, it must be pristine and clean. Otherwise, you'll have to buy drinking water or a filter system. Some cities have grungy-tasting water, and even though it may not be harmful to your health, it still makes you feel grungy.

Natural Disasters

Natural disasters earthquakes, floods, hurricanes have always occurred and undoubtedly always will. There are several reasons for mentioning them in a discussion of psychology and the environment. Our knowledge of such events and our growing ability to predict, at least statistically, the occurrence of some of them have implications for behavior. For example, the knowledge that a particular area is highly likely to experience severe earthquakes within a given time span has implications for the kinds of structures that should be allowed in that area and for the kinds of preparations that should be made to deal with such events when they occur. Conversely, human behavior has implications for the consequences of natural disasters that do occur. Careful planning that takes the probabilities of predictable natural disasters into account can lessen their effects planning that ignores those probabilities has the potential to magnify their effects manyfold. The Yucca Mountain site being...

Climate and water

Climate variability directly impacts the water resource and has stimulated expanding interest in the scientific study of the global hydrologic cycle. Water is a fundamental aspect of most people's lives in humid regions where its supply is taken for granted, but water is highly valued in supply-limited arid regions. The prospect of climate change and an altered water supply imposes a broadened dimension for everyone to understand the relationships among climate, the hydrologic cycle, and the water resource. In addition, water's role in geochemical and biological processes involving climate and landscape change is receiving increased attention. Although the hydrologic cycle displays large annual, seasonal, and regional variations, large-scale modifications of the Earth's surface due to human activity affect the water balance of the continents and of the atmosphere and oceans. Numerical simulations suggest that water vapor in the atmosphere significantly amplifies enhancement of the...

Dynamic climate

Global climate has changed through time and continues to change and to display variability (Burroughs, 2001 Lockwood, 2001). Both climate change and variability can be a response to internal or external forcing of the climate system. Passive forcings involve modulation of faster responding components by slower response time components. Active forcings result from variations and instabilities of the climate system dynamics and by coupled interactions between climate system components. Passive forcings are known as stochastic forcings due to their random evolution while active forcings are called dynamic forcings because a strong dynamical response is required in the slower component (Bigg et al., 2003). It is now becoming evident that one component of climate change and variability is related to natural processes and another component is attributed to human activities (IPCC, 2001). Aside from concerns for the causal factors, the important point is that an abundance of evidence shows...

The Apocalypse Wagon

Average fleet-wide car fuel consumption in Germany is 7.9 liters per 100 kilometers (L 100 km) and well above 12 L 100 km in the ultimate role model for motorization, the US. We could play reasonable and assume that the typical rate of annual oil demand for the Apocalypse Wagon is rapidly reduced in India and China, to two-thirds of the US benchmark, to about 8 L 100 km. We will also assume that India and Chinese cars will only travel 18,000 km year. Annual oil burn per car is therefore around nine barrels year.

Condensed summary

The Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) has been working with companies active in the catastrophe reinsurance market since 1994. The goal of the RPI is to support scientific research on topics of interest to its sponsors and to provide connections between the scientific and business communities, mainly through science-business workshops on a variety of topics. The major topics of RPI-funded research include paleotempestology, the relationship between tropical cyclone activity and climate, improvement of best-track data, and European storms. A workshop sponsored by the RPI in Bermuda in October 2005 catalyzed the compilation of this volume. This chapter provides an overview of RPI's history, its efforts at making science on natural hazard risk available and understandable to its sponsors, and suggestions for similar endeavors.

Evaporation and evapotranspiration

Stilling Well Evapori

Evaporation from free water surfaces and bare soil and evapotranspiration from vegetated surfaces support upward directed energy and mass fluxes that complement downward directed precipitation in climate of the second kind and the terrestrial branch of the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, evaporation and evapotranspiration have an important role in determining surface temperatures, surface pressure, rainfall, and atmospheric motion. The upward directed energy and water vapor fluxes from the Earth's surface involve the passage of water from the liquid to the gaseous state. It may be thought of as the mass flux that is opposite of precipitation but because it is water vapor it is not visible in the same way as precipitation. The water vapor flux occurs as evaporation from free water surfaces (i.e. lakes, rivers, and the oceans) and moist soil surfaces and as transpiration from living plants. Evaporation from free water surfaces and moist soil surfaces occurs when the ambient air vapor...

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

While master plans should create strategies for adapting to the effects of climate change, they are also central to implementing the actions to reduce emissions as well as to finding ways to connect both adaptation and mitigation. For example, an increased reliance on distributed power or on-site generation from combined heat and power (see chapter 6), renewable energy, or alternative fuels may decrease heat-trapping gas emissions and make the university less vulnerable to power outages or storm events. Likewise, attention to energy efficiency can help to reduce the impact of rising costs. Emergency Planning Planning for emergencies, especially those that may result in power outages, should be factored into the full cost of energy systems. Too often generators for backup power are tacked onto projects without any systematic thinking about their capacity to function in different types of emergencies. Among the lessons we learned was how vulnerable we are when the power fails. The...

Discussion Topics

Weischet Interpretation Meteosat

J. (eds) (1980) Atlas of Drought in Britain 1975-6, Institute of British Geographers, London, 82 pp. Detailed case study of a major UK drought. Korzun, V. I. (ed.-in-chief) USSR Committee for the International Hydrological Decade (1978) World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth, UNESCO, Paris (translation of Russian edn, Leningrad, 1974), 663pp. Comprehensive account of atmospheric and terrestrial components of the water balance for the globe and by continent numerous figures, tables and extensive references. Linsley, R. K. Franzini, J. B., Freyberg. D.L. and Tchbanoglous, G. (1992) Water-resources Engineering (4th edn), McGraw-Hill. New York, 841pp. Chapters on descriptive and quantitative hydrology and ground water water supply and engineering topics predominate. Pearl, R. T. et al. (1954) The Calculation of Irrigation Need, Tech. Bull. No. 4, Min. Agric., Fish and Food, HMSO, London, 35pp. Handbook based on the Penman formulae for the UK....

Peter Taylor Catastrophes and insurance

This chapter explores the way financial losses associated with catastrophes can be mitigated by insurance. It covers what insurers mean by catastrophe and risk, and how computer modelling techniques have tamed the problem of quantitative estimation of many hitherto intractable extreme risks. Having assessed where these techniques work well, it explains why they can be expected to fall short in describing emerging global catastrophic risks such as threats from biotechnology. The chapter ends with some pointers to new techniques, which offer some promise in assessing such emerging risks. Insurance against catastrophes has been available for many years - we need to only think of the San Francisco 1906 earthquake when Cuthbert Heath sent the telegram 'Pay all our policyholders in full irrespective of the terms of their policies' back to Lloyd's of London, an act that created long-standing confidence in the insurance markets as providers of catastrophe cover. For much of this time,...

Lapse rate and the greenhouse effect

The lapse rate in the atmosphere (how quickly temperature decreases with altitude) is determined primarily by convection and the hidden heat carried aloft by water vapor. The lapse rate determines the sensitivity of the temperature of the ground to changes in the IR opacity of the atmosphere. If we want to forecast the effect of the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on the temperature of the ground, we will have to get the lapse rate right, and any changes in the lapse rate that result from future climate change.

The Wheel of Change Toward Sustainability

Topic Trinity Town

As the climate movement grows, successful organizational change will require clarity on two questions What are we striving to achieve and What is our theory of success In this section, a set of interconnected interventions that can foster fundamental organizational transformation is presented. With an understanding of this wheel of change, leaders of the climate movement can accelerate the transition to a clean-energy economy. Although these interventions are described step by step, it is critical that you understand that organizational change is not linear. It's messy. In chapter 3, Mary Lou Finley cautioned that the climate movement will involve fits and starts, progress and reversals. The same will be true for the organizational change that will be required within this movement. It is possible to start the change process anywhere on the wheel of change (figure 12.2). For example, leaders of a university may begin by increasing the inflow and dissemination of information about the...

Genesis of the Risk Prediction Initiative

In general, these new companies, as well as other reinsurance and insurance companies that survived the large losses, were highly motivated to learn more about their exposure to risk from natural hazards. The RPI was created in 1994 as a result of discussions between BIOS scientists and individuals in these companies who were seeking novel approaches for understanding natural hazard risk. The goal is to support research on natural hazards and to transform the science into knowledge that sponsors can use to assess their risk (Malmquist, 1997). The October 2005 workshop was motivated in part by the active 2004 hurricane season and was designed to meet RPI's goals, but it was received with extreme interest because it was closely preceded by Hurricane Katrina and two publications (Emanuel, 2005 Webster et al, 2005) that raised the specter of greatly enhanced losses due to an increase in the intensity and number of the strongest tropical cyclones. The second reason for focusing on tropical...

Reducing coastal risk

Has fallen on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and its National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA has taken an important step towards protecting coastal property by providing incentives to build new structures above the projected elevation of storm surges and to strengthen existing structures against windstorm damage. However, there has been no direct consideration of horizontal shoreline movement, specifically coastal erosion, nor planning to accommodate the accelerating pace of sea level rise and the likelihood of more intense storms (with their higher winds and larger storm surges). The lack of coordinated federal programs and policies is abundantly evident as the coastal building boom continues. In advance of Hurricane Katrina's landfall, a 30 ft storm surge at Bay St Louis, Mississippi was predicted by the IHRC research team (see Figure 10.4 and Plate 15). The CEST model proved to be highly accurate as field measurements2 confirmed the extremely high surge height...

Encounters with Extraterrestrial Objects

What Extraterrestrial Disaster

The end of 2000, 1,254 and by June 2007, more than 4,100, of which nearly 880 were bodies with diameters 1 km (fig. 2.5). As the findings accumulate, there has been an expected decline in annual discoveries of NEAs with diameters 1 km, and the search has been asymptotically approaching the total number of such NEAs. Consequently, we are now much better able to assess the size-dependent impact frequencies and to quantify the probabilities of encounters whose consequences range from local damage through regional devastation to a global catastrophe. velocities, even small NEOs have kinetic energy equivalent to that of a small nuclear bomb larger bodies can bring regional devastation, and the largest can cause a global catastrophe. In any case, it is impossible to quantify satisfactorily the actual effect because fine dust would not be the only climate-modifying factor. Soot from massive fires ignited by hot ejecta and sulfate aerosols liberated from impacted rocks could each have as much...

Treering reconstructions

Tree rings are the basis for pre-instrument climatic reconstructions for a variety of locations worldwide, including some limited tropical sites. Only a few tropical tree species form distinct annual rings, and tree growth in the tropics is less susceptible to interannual climate variability than at other latitudes (Pumijumnong, 1999). However, subtropical montane forests experience moderate temperature seasonality and large precipitation seasonality that induce dormancy and production of annual rings similar to temperate regions (Villalba et al., 1998). The basic strategy of dendroclimatology is to identify regions where trees are most sensitive to climatic stress so climatic differences are evident in the character of the tree rings. Such locations are commonly at the limit of the natural ranges of temperature and precipitation for a specific tree species. The longest continuous tree-ring records extending over several thousand years are achieved by overlapping the records for...

Emergence of the hydrologic cycle

The rise of climatology as a science is closely related to developments in meteorology and to the human capacity to obtain more and improved atmospheric observations and measurements. The earliest evidence of human interest in the atmosphere was a concern for phenomena recognized in today's world as belonging to the field of meteorology. Climate is a more abstract concept than weather, and in these early days people did not travel extensively and were less likely to observe climatic differences between places (Linacre, 1992). However, interest in climate evolved as understanding of atmospheric processes improved, and a close coupling of climatology and meteorology characterizes much of their early history. Around 3000 BC, Mesopotamian astronomers and mathematicians studied clouds and thunder and were the first to identify winds according to the direction from which they blow. At about this same time, Egyptian astronomers and mathematicians recognized the seasonal position of the Sun...

Suggestions for further reading

Anarchists of the Middle Ages (New York Oxford University Press, 1961,1970,1999). The classic text on medieval millennialism. Devotes much attention to Communism and Nazism. Heard, A. (1999). Apocalypse Pretty Soon Travels in End-time America (New York W. W. Norton & Company). A travelogue chronicling a dozen contemporary millennial groups, religious and secular, from UFO cults and evangelical premillennialists to transhumanists and immortalists. Leslie, J. (1998). The End of the World The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. Grand Rapids MI. CNN. (1998). Survivalists try to prevent millennium-bug bite. October 10. Cohn, N. (1970). The Pursuit of the Millennium Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Working Paper No. 107. http ssm.com abstract 834264 Hall, JR. (2000). Apocalypse Observed Religious Movements and Violence in North America, Europe, and Japan (London Routledge). Halpern, P. (2001). Countdown to Apocalypse A Scientific Exploration of the End of the World (New York, NY...

The Meaning of Global Warming

Turning the debate away from certainty and prevention to uncertainty and preparedness changes the way people think about global warming itself. Global warming preparedness changes the meaning of global warming. It is necessary, in and of itself, and it is a bridge to wider action. Once people accept that global warming is happening they are on their way to asking, If there is something I can do to cope with the effects of global warming, is there also something I can do to lessen those effects to begin with

Seeing the Rational in the Irrational

Now imagine how powerless the dominant eco-tragedy and apocalypse narratives make people feel. Many environmentalists and liberal movie critics walked out of An Inconvenient Truth feeling excited and happy because they believed that now Americans are finally going to get it. Well, we believe that Americans got it all right they got that global warming is so overwhelming that there is little they can do about it. After ninety minutes of overwhelming evidence that global warming has arrived and that it could trigger violent cataclysms, why would anyone believe that buying fluorescent lightbulbs and hybrid cars could ever be enough Katherine Ellison aptly captured the feelings of many in an op-ed she wrote for the New York Times after seeing An Inconvenient Truth

Emergent technologies and future prospects

There is little doubt that global warming will trigger changes that will fundamentally change the practice of architecture. Already the prediction that global warming will lead to greater intensity and frequency of storms is being realised. It is inevitable that, as heat is built up within the biosphere, this results in the release of energy which powers more extreme climate activity. We have noted examples of the predicted rate of return of the 1 in 100 year storm as currently defined. Newhaven headed the list with a return rate of 1 in 3 years by 2030. The immediate consequence for architects is that design wind loads should be amended to cope with this progressive change and the fact that buffeting will increase in intensity. It is inevitable that sea levels will rise. Already there are compelling reasons not to develop below the 5 metre contour at or near the coasts. The predictions of rising levels are becoming more alarmist, with the doomsday scenario of a 110 metre rise if...

Greater New York Urban Anxiety Jim Motavalli with Sherry Barnes

So what happens when things get really bad On December 11, 1992, a nor'easter storm hit the great city head-on. With wind gusts of up to 90 miles per hour and water surges 8 1 2 feet above mean sea level, New York's transportation infrastructure sputtered to a halt. Four million subway riders were stranded. The FDR Drive, the main highway along the east side of Manhattan, flooded up to 4 1 2 feet in some areas, and LaGuardia Airport, only 7 feet above sea level, grounded flights for the day. In the end, the federal disaster assistance totaled 233.6 million, according to Environmental Defense. Vivien Gornitz, associate research scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, points toward a rectangular box jutting out of the Hudson in lower Manhattan, near a guarded U.S. Coast Guard booth. That tide gauge uses an acoustic device to record the level of the sea's surface, she explains. It takes a reading every six minutes. Gornitz and other researchers from Columbia University,...

Martin J Rees Foreword

Throughout the decades of the Cold War, the entire Western World was at great hazard. The superpowers could have stumbled towards Armageddon through muddle and miscalculation. We are not very rational in assessing relative risk. In some contexts, we are absurdly risk-averse. We fret about statistically tiny risks carcinogens in food, a one-in-a-million change of being killed in train crashes, and so forth. But most of us were 'in denial' about the far greater risk of death in a nuclear catastrophe. But, along with these hopes, twenty-first century technology will confront us with new global threats - stemming from bio-, cyber- and environmental-science, as well as from physics -that could be as grave as the bomb. The Bulletin's clock is now closer to midnight again. These threats may not trigger sudden worldwide catastrophe - the doomsday clock is not such a good metaphor - but they are, in aggregate, disquieting and challenging. The tensions between benign and damaging spin-offs from...

Dominant Fuels Enduring Prime Movers

The modern tradition of concerns about an impending decline in resource extraction began in 1865 with William Stanley Jevons, a leading economist of the Victorian era, who concluded that falling coal output must spell the end of Britain's national greatness because it is of course . . . useless to think of substituting any other kind of fuel for coal (Jevons 1865, 183). Substitute oil for coal in that sentence, and you have the erroneous foundations of the present doomsday sentiments about oil. There is no need to elaborate on how wrong Jevons was. The Jevonsian view was reintroduced by Hubbert (1969) with his correct timing of U.S. oil production, leading those who foresaw an early end to oil reserves to consider Hubbert's Gaussian exhaustion curve with the reverence reserved by Biblical fundamentalists for Genesis.

Adapting to Changes Caused by Global Warming

Across the United States and beyond, the effects of climate change may be dramatic. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that worldwide economic losses due to natural disasters appear to be doubling every ten years, and the next decade will reach 150 billion a year.4 Natural disasters appear to be more frequent and more severe.5 Campus planners should consider the energy delivery, increased frequency of floods, and consequences of higher average temperatures that are predicted (often by academics) to occur. Box 9.3 shows some of these effects. Some members of the private sector are taking climate-related warnings seriously. In particular, the insurance and reinsurance industries are actively working to bring attention to this problem. In some cases, insurance companies are canceling policies for coastal properties due to the increasing risk of storm-related flooding. Swiss Re, the world's second-largest reinsurance company, believes that losses in their industry could...

Nick Bostrom and Milan M Cirkovic Introduction

The term 'global catastrophic risk' lacks a sharp definition. We use it to refer, loosely, to a risk that might have the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. On this definition, an immensely diverse collection of events could constitute global catastrophes potential candidates range from volcanic eruptions to pandemic infections, nuclear accidents to worldwide tyrannies, out-of-control scientific experiments to climatic changes, and cosmic hazards to economic collapse. With this in mind, one might well ask, what use is a book on global catastrophic risk The risks under consideration seem to have little in common, so does 'global catastrophic risk' even make sense as a topic Or is the book that you hold in your hands as ill-conceived and unfocused a project as a volume on 'Gardening, Matrix Algebra, and the History of Byzantium' We are confident that a comprehensive treatment of global catastrophic risk will be at least somewhat more useful and...

The GARP tropical experiment begins

3.1.3 The GATE as a starting point for global climate studies The prime task for the JOC was to improve the observational network in order to provide data for testing the models that were being developed for weather forecasting. This was, however, also to be an important prerequisite for the development of climate models, but it did not seem meaningful to address the climate issue in all its complexities to begin with. In addition to GATE there were also several other subprogrammes that were very important for the fulfilment of the general GARP objectives, i.e. studies of 'air-surface interaction' and 'atmospheric radiation.' early in the twenty-first century, we are trying hard to prevent an ongoing deterioration of the surface-based observational system. Paradoxically, there is at the same time an extraordinary interest in defence against natural disasters and the threat of a human-induced climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gases is constantly increasing. This indeed...

Overview of loss models

Hurricane loss models have traditionally consisted of an input set of historical or synthetic storms that constitute a frequency or occurrence model, and additional meteorological, vulnerability, and actuarial components. In support of these components, databases on historical events and their detailed characteristics are necessary. For average annual loss cost estimation, probability distributions governing the stochastic generation of events are also necessary. For a given, fixed exposure, the hurricane loss model would then be executed to simulate tens of thousands of years in order to produce loss cost estimates and attendant uncertainties in the estimates. This overview of hurricane loss model construction pertains both to the first loss model approved by the commission (the AIR model Clark, 1986, 1997) and to the current public domain model (Powell et al., 2005), as well as a model that has garnered ongoing funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS...

New Orleans projected flood losses

The flood extent (Figure 15.5) was determined from four different sources of data Landsat 5 imagery taken on August 31, 2005 Digital Globe imagery taken on September 3, 2005 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood extent maps as of August 31, 2005 and aerial reconnaissance photos taken at 1,525 m on August 30, 2005. Flood depth was determined by using high-resolution (5 m horizontal) LIDAR data, from which RMS constructed a digital terrain model with ground elevation values assigned to each cell in a 100 m x 100 m grid over the greater New Orleans area. The modeled flood depths were validated using aerial reconnaissance imagery taken on August 30, from which flood depths were assessed relative to surrounding structures, automobiles, and other distinguishable objects. A mapping of the

Variation trend of extreme drought during

Extreme drought always brings about severer natural disasters, and threatens much the agricultural production and human's daily life. Lots of statistical results show the rapid increase of the damage caused by extreme drought. Thus it is necessary to study the frequency and variation trend of extreme drought. Here, the variation trend of extreme drought over China during 1951-2004 was analyzed (Ma and Fu, 2003).

Pastfuture asymmetry and risk inferences

Consider the simplest case of a single very destructive global catastrophe, for instance, a worse-than-Toba super-volcanic eruption (see Chapter 10, this volume). The evidence we take into account in a Bayesian manner is the fact of our existence at the present epoch this, in turn, implies the existence of a complicated web of evolutionary processes upon which our emergence is contingent we shall neglect this complication in the present binary toy model and shall return to it in the next subsection. The situation is schematically shown in Fig. 6.1. The a priori probability of catastrophe is Pand the probability of human extinction (or a sufficiently strong perturbation leading to divergence of evolutionary pathways from the morphological subspace containing humans) upon the catastrophic event is Q. We shall suppose that the two probabilities are (1) constant, (2) adequately normalized, and (3) applicable to a particular well-defined interval of past time. Event B2 is the occurence of...

Who needs a loss inventory

The United States is exposed to many different types of natural hazards, and to weather and climate hazards in particular. Media-friendly hurricanes batter the coasts while floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, droughts, and other common and powerful hazards affect not only coastal areas but also the interior areas of the country. The destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina along the Gulf Coast in 2005 is just the current placeholder for the next ''big hazard event.'' Death and destruction can occur anywhere in the United States, not just along the coastlines. In times of increasing losses from natural hazards at both a global and a national scale (McBean, 2004 Cutter and Emrich, 2005), the country should not and cannot plan for the future without some systematic accounting or a central repository of past losses. The National Planning Scenarios, developed by the Homeland Security Council in collaboration with the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), are designed to support mitigation...

The Earth a potted biography

The major global geophysical catastrophes that await us down the line are in fact just run-of-the-mill natural phenomena writ large. In order to understand them, therefore, it is essential to know a little about the Earth and how it functions. Here, I will sashay through the 4.6 billion years of Earth history, elucidating along the way those features that make our world so hazardous and our future upon it so precarious. To begin, it is sometimes worth pondering upon just how incredibly old the Earth is, if only to appreciate the notion that just because we have not experienced a particular natural catastrophe before does not mean it has never happened, nor that it will not happen again. The Earth has been around just about long enough to ensure that anything nature can conjure up it already has. To give a true impression of the great age of our planet compared to that of our race, perhaps I can fall back on an analogy I have used before. Imagine the entirety of Earth's history...

Introduction anthropic reasoning and global risks

Different types of global catastrophic risks (GCRs) are studied in various chapters of this book by direct analysis. In doing so, researchers benefit from a detailed understanding of the interplay of the underlying causal factors. However, the causal network is often excessively complex and difficult or impossible to disentangle. Here, we would like to consider limitations and theoretical constraints on the risk assessments which are provided by the general properties of the world in which we live, as well as its contingent history. There are only a few of these constraints, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. The most important of these are observation selection effects. In the rest of this chapter, we shall consider several applications of the anthropic reasoning to evaluation of our future prospects first the anthropic overconfidence argument stemming from the past-future...

Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring

At about the same time that Kaplan and Garrick's (1981) definition of risk was published, so too was the first article on HHM (Haimes, 1981, 2004). Central to the HHM method is a particular diagram (see, for example, Fig. 7.1). This is particularly useful for analysing systems with multiple, interacting (perhaps overlapping) subsystems, such as a regional transportation or water supply system. The different columns in the diagram reflect different 'perspectives' on the overall system. 7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk One of the most dominant steps in the risk assessment process is the quantification of risk, yet the validity of the approach most commonly used to quantify risk - its expected value - has received neither the broad professional scrutiny it deserves nor the hoped-for wider mathematical challenge that it mandates. One of the few exceptions is the conditional expected value of the risk of extreme events (among other conditional expected values of risks)...

Global warming is a largescale problem

However, the market has its blind spots, leading to effects like the tragedy of the commons. In economics, a cost that is not paid by the decision maker is called an external cost. An example of an external cost associated with driving to work is the traffic. One more car will tend to slow down all the other cars on the road, costing other drivers their time. The cost of climate change is not only paid by people who are responsible, but by everybody, soon and far into the future. Our sheep farmer made the other farmers pay part of the cost of his new sheep. If true costs are left external, then the economic balancing act of the market does not take them into account, and tragedies of the commons are the result. An external cost can be internalized by means of taxes or regulations. The idea is to make the market aware of the true cost of a decision to take this path versus that path. One way to harness the balancing abilities of the market for preventing global warming is a scheme...

Hydrologic Effects and Water Resources

Higher temperatures mean changes in precipitation patterns that will have a dramatic impact on California's water resources and hydrology. Most researchers agree that global warming will change the form, timing, intensity, and distribution of precipitation in very significant ways, whether or not there is any change in the overall amount of precipitation.22-26 This has profound implications for California's surface water supply. Construction of additional infrastructure may be necessary to capture the increased winter and spring runoff. However, there are significant environmental and cost impediments to such construction.45,46 In the absence of new infrastructures, existing reservoirs would need to be maintained at lower levels during the winter. This could reduce statewide water supply in the summer by an estimated 7 20 percent.47 Alternative flood control measures could be implemented so that more of the winter runoff could be stored in reservoirs. Development could be restricted...

The Global Warming Issue

Global warming is one of the most controversial issues society has ever had to deal with. Because it affects every person on Earth and must be dealt with on a global scale, it has captured the attention of not only scientists, but politicians, academicians, economists, merchants, farmers, planners, medical specialists, engineers, and every other person who has an interest in the environment, food supply, water supply, health, and future of life on Earth. This chapter takes a look at an early view of global warming, how that relates to scientific response in general, why there is such a controversy, and why scale has had such an influence. It then explores how advances in technology and education have played a role in the outlook of the problem and what the growth of public environmental awareness over the past few decades has done. Finally, it touches on the effects of the media's response and public's reaction to the issue.

Impacts on water and foodborne diseases

Climate-related effects on water and food-borne diseases are likely to be a much more significant factor in developing countries than in the US. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is already associated with large fluctuations in incidence of cholera in Peru (Pascual et al, 2000). Although climate change may affect the overall availability of water in the US, it does not seem likely to compromise the safety of drinking water. Higher temperatures may, however, heighten risk of salmonella in the US, and hotter, less-mixed estuaries may lead to more frequent contamination of fish and shellfish. Effects on food production and distribution and on water supply systems in the US are likely to have a much greater effect on cost than on human health. Exceptions to this generalization might occur as a result of major storm disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, when populations are ripped away from water and health infrastructure, and when heavy precipitation causes storm runoff to...

The need for and nature of foresight

While I am not a fan of Donald Rumsfeld, I think the quote above from one of his news briefings drew some rather unfair lambasting. It summarises, if one concentrates on its meaning and applies it to climate change, some important aspects of the science of climate change as well as defence policy questions. That is, there is a whole range of aspects of climate change, with some much more certain than others. There are also uncertainties and possibilities we are aware of, and may even be able to quantify in terms of risk. But, there is also a possibility that there are things about climate that we simply do not know, and which may totally surprise us. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed to provide foresight in relation to the possible human impacts on climate, with a view to helping governments formulate wiser policy options and decisions in relation to climate change. Foresight is the act or power of seeing into the future, a perception gained by looking...

Links with Faculty Research

Research related to climate change can be conducted in any discipline, and is limited only by the imagination of the researcher and the availability of funds. Despite the failure of the United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, significant funds are available for a wide range of research through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.3 Many of the subelements of the program emphasize interdisciplinary research. Articles related to climate change are appearing in a wide range of peer-reviewed journals, and journals focusing specifically on climate change are fast emerging. Perusing the reports of the IPCC provides an excellent overview of past and current peer-reviewed research and many ideas for further work. This is an area in which serious academic inquiry is emerging rapidly. Although traditional faculty research may address a nearly unlimited number of questions related to climate change, it is our sense that faculty work that informs climate action is still in its infancy....

Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy

Note that the vulnerability of a system is multidimensional, namely, a vector in mathematical terms. For example, suppose we consider the risk of hurricane to a major hospital. The states of the hospital, which represent vulnerabilities, are functionality availability of the electric power, water supply, telecommunications, and intensive care and other emergency units, which are critical to the overall functionality of the hospital. Furthermore, each one of these state variables is not static in its operations and functionality - its levels of functionality change and evolve continuously. In addition, each is a system of its own and has its own sub-state variables. For example, the water supply system consists of the main pipes, distribution system, and pumps, among other elements, each with its own attributes. Therefore, to use or oversimplify the multidimensional vulnerability to a scalar quantity in representing risk could mask the underlying causes of risk and lead to results that...

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