Tables

1.1 Examples of productivity improvements from experience 13

3.1 Typical chemical exergy content of some fuels 78

4.1 Average exergy efficiency of primary work (percent) 127

7.1 Statistics of model fit 210

7.2 Coefficients of production functions 211

7.3 Causality tests 215

8.1 Optimal logistic and bi-logistic model for technical efficiency f (USA, 1900-98) 244

8.2 Forecast GDP growth rates for three alternative technology scenarios 246

8.3 Sensitivity test Gaussian probability distribution parameters 246

9.1 Dummy variables 268

9.2 Results of linear regressions 269

9.3 Detailed results of regression 4 270

9.4 The 12 groups 272 9.5a Regression results with different oil coefficients for groups 4 and 8 (unweighted) 276 9.5b Regression results with different oil coefficients for groups 4 and 8 (GDP weighted) 277

9.6 Catch-up countries 280 9.7a Regression results with different coefficients for catch-up countries only (unweighted) 285 9.7b Regression results with different coefficients for catch-up countries only (GDP weighted) 285

B.1 Derivation of food/feed biomass consumption 314

B.2a Data sources for US economic data 318

B.2b Data description and sources for US coal 319

B.2c Data description and sources for US petroleum 322

B.2d Data description and sources for US natural gas 324 B.2e Data description and sources for US fuelwood and biomass 327

B.3a Data sources for Japanese economic data 329

B.3b Description and sources of Japanese coal data 330

B.3c Description and sources of Japanese petroleum data 331

xii

The economic growth engine

B.3d

Description and sources of Japanese natural gas data,

1953 to present

333

B.3e

Description and sources of Japanese renewables and

biomass data

333

B.4

Basic US data, 1900-2006

334

B.5

Basic Japanese data, 1900-2005

339

C.1

Correlations of electrification (E) and urbanization (U)

for nine countries

348

C.2

Group 4 and group 8

349

C.3

Full country list

350

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