Electrification And Urbanization

It is tempting to test two variables that are highly correlated with technology improvement and economic growth, namely electrification (Ele) and urbanization (Urb).

Figure C.1 plots the relationship between GDP fraction and electrification, expressed as electricity consumption per capita, as a fraction of the US level. The data used in this figure are from 1997 to 2001 for 130 countries. We can see that for relatively low income countries (GDP below 40 percent) the relationship is almost linear and the variance is smaller. Beyond that, the data are much more scattered. There is an obvious divergence among countries with a GDP fraction above 80 percent.

Figure C.2 shows the relationship between urbanization (Urb) and GDP fraction. The trend relationship is almost exponential, but the variance among countries is extremely large. The correlation between Ele and Urb over time for nine major countries is exhibited in Figure C.1 and Figures C.3a-e. The indices in each graph are defined as dividing the variables by their values of the first year. The countries are France, Japan, Sweden, UK, US, Brazil, India, Indonesia and China. The correlations of these two variables for developing countries and late developed countries shown in Figure C.1 are so high (almost unity) that they cannot be regarded as independent. Hence we select electrification as the more reliable choice, and more directly related to the output of useful work, U.

The urbanization data used in this Appendix C are from the UN population database issued annually by the UN Statistical Office, New York (United Nations Statistical Office annual). However, the urbanization data appear to be less reliable than the electrification data, probably due to inconsistent definitions of what constitutes an urban area. The peculiar data for France (Figure C.3a) between 1980 and 1995, the UK before 1972 (Figure C.3d) and for the US between 1970 and 1980 (Figure C.3e) illustrate the problems. N.B., according to this UN data, the urbanization index for the UK decreased between 1960 and 1972, which is not credible. Table C.1 shows the correlations of electrification and urbanization.

Electrification fraction USA, percent

Figure C.1 Relationship between GDP and electrification for 1997-2001

J 80

CL Q

O 60

40 20

J 80

CL Q

O 60

40 20

& 1999

k 1998

-Expon.

(2001)

* 1 ft X ,

. IV,!

i * -i y . i

Jr 4

1 • i *ff. mtu

^ ■ TP nr * : dT" ■ ■ ■ ,

40 60 80

Urbanization, percent

40 60 80

Urbanization, percent

Figure C.2 Relationship between GDP and urbanization for 1997-2001

1960

France, urbanization Japan, urbanization France, electrification Japan, electrification

France, urbanization Japan, urbanization France, electrification Japan, electrification

France Urbanization

1960

1965

1995

2000

1965

1995

2000

Figure C.3a Processes of urbanization and electrification (France and Japan, 1960-2001)

Year

Figure C.3b Processes of urbanization and electrification (Brazil and China, 1971-2001)

J 11.00

Indonesia, urbanization •—• India, electrification

Indonesia, electrification

1976

1981

1986 Year

1991

1996

Figure C.3c Processes of urbanization and electrification (India and Indonesia, 1971-2001)

UK, urbanization •—• Sweden, electrification UK, electrification

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Figure C.3d Processes of urbanization and electrification (Sweden and UK, 1960-2001)

Figure C.3e Processes of urbanization and electrification (USA, 1960-2001)

Table C.1 Correlations of electrification (E) and urbanization (U) for nine countries

Country

Correlation of E to U

France

0.8778

Japan

0.9702

Sweden

0.812

UK

0.8428

USA

0.9544

Brazil

0.9963

India

0.9614

Indonesia

0.9818

China

0.9897

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