Mr

In the MR model, baseline annual carbon emissions increase rapidly from 6.0 GtC to 39.64 GtC in 2100. In the restricted scenario, carbon emissions

Table 3.5 World-wide business-as-usual energy-related CO2 emissions (GtC)

Study

1990

2000

2005

2020

2050

2100

IEAb

5.92

7.93

7.93

MR

6.00

6.97

9.52

14.99

39.64

ERM

5.77

6.71

8.18

11.84

22.58a

N&Yc

5.50

10.30

13.30

20.00

GREEN

5.82

7.07

7.70

10.81

19.00

WWd__Annual average for 1990-2100 is 25.2_

Sources: Dean and Hoeller 1992; for N&Y only, Boero et al. 1991 a 2095

b Excluding non-fossil solid fuels, bunkers and non-energy use of fossil fuels and petrochemical feedstock. c Nordhaus and Yohe 1983.

d WW have a point estimate of 65.5 billion tonnes for 2100 giving an average annual growth of 2.3 per cent and an average annual emission reported above.

Table 3.6 Reduction in CO2 and associated loss in GDP

Study

Projection Region

CO2

CO2

GDP

period

emissions % emissions % changes %

of baseline

of ref. year

of baseline

MR

1990-2100

USA

-20 (1990)

-3.0

(2030+)

OOECD

-20 (1990)

-2.0 (2010)

SU-EE

-20 (1990)

-4.0

(2030+)

China

100 (1990)

-10.0

(2050)

RoW

100 (1990)

-5.0 (2100)

World

-75 (2100)

16 (1990)

-5.0 (2100)

ERM

1975-2050

USA

-60 (2050)

70 (1990)

-0.4 (2050)

World

-40 (2050)

162 (1990)

-1.0 (2050)

Nordhaus

1990-2100

World

-50 (2100)

-1.0

GREEN

1990-2020

N

-20 (1990)

-0.8 (2020)

America

Europe

-20 (1990)

-7.0 (2020)

Pacific

-20 (1990)

-3.7 (2020)

EELDCc

+50 (1990)

-3.6 (2020)

China

+50 (1990)

-1.5 (2020)

USSR

-20 (1990)

-2.2 (2020)

World

-37 (2020)

+17 (1990)

-1.8 (2020)

WW

1990-2030

World

NP taxa

-50 (2030)

Source: Boero et al. 1991 a National production tax. b National consumption tax. c Energy exporting LDC.

NC taxb -50 (2030) Global -50 (2030) tax increase by 15 per cent over 1990 levels by 2030 and then stabilise at 6.6 GtC. These limitations require taxes which are initially steep, but despite the large amount of abatement needed they settle at a long term average of $250 per tonne of carbon, because this tax is equal to the difference between the carbon and non-carbon backstop technology (see Table 3.7).

For the USA, the tax peaks at $400 in 2020 before settling at $250 per tonne of carbon. It then declines as new technology comes on stream. Carbon taxes peak at $650 per tonne in SU and EE during 2020-2060. The reasons for this discrepancy is the lower substitutability in consumption and production and a lower availability of alternative energy sources (Table 3.7). Economic costs for the USA level at 3 per cent of GDP, at 2 per cent of GDP for OOECD (due to larger resources of oil and gas), 3 per cent of GDP for SU and EE. Losses are low for RoW till 2030 (due to generous carbon emissions ceilings and abundant availability of oil), but reach 5 per cent of GDP by 2100. The largest losses, 8-10 per cent of GDP, are

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