References

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Changnon, S., Pielke, R., Sylves, R., and Pulwarty, R. (2001). Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 437-42. Climatic Research Unit (CRU) (2006). University of East Anglia, Norwich. www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#sciref.

Collins, D. J., and Lowe, S. P. (2001). A macro validation dataset for U.S. hurricane models. www.casact.org/pubs/forum/01wforum/01wf217.pdf.

Downton, M. W., and Pielke, R. A., Jr. (2005). How accurate are disaster loss data? The case of U.S. flood damage. Natural Hazards, 35, 211-28.

Emanuel, K. A. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 486, 686-8.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate change 2001. www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm.

Munich Re Group. (2001-5). Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes. Munich: WKD Offsetdruck GmbH.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2005). The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2004 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts). www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-4.pdf.

Overseas Development Institute (ODI) (2005). ODI briefing paper: Aftershocks: natural disaster risk and economic development policy. www.odi.org.uk/ publications/briefing/bp_disasters_nov05.pdf.

Pielke, R. A., Jr., and Landsea, C. (1998). Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1925-95. Weather and Forecasting, September 1998, 621-31.

Pielke, Jr., R. A., Downton, M. W., and Barnard Miller, J. Z. (2002). Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

Pielke, R. A., Jr., Ribeira, J., Landsea, C., Fernandez, M. L., and Klein, R. (2003). Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: normalized damage and loss potentials. Natural Hazards Review, August, 101-14.

Swiss Reinsurance Company. (2005, 2006). Sigma. Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters. Zurich: Swiss Reinsurance Company, Economic Research & Consulting.

United Nations (1992). International Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management Geneva: United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs (DHA), International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2004). Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm.

Van der Vink, G. et al. (1998). Why the United States is becoming more vulnerable to natural disasters. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 79(44), 533-7.

appendix: regression results

Table 12.A1. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of normalized weather-related losses on year

Dependent variable: normalized catastrophe losses.a

Time period

Table 12.A1. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of normalized weather-related losses on year

Dependent variable: normalized catastrophe losses.a

Time period

Survey group

1950-2005

1970-2005

Slope

intercept

r2

Slope

intercept

r2

Global losses

379.26

- 702,039

0.04

1251.08 ***

-2,437,796***

0.20

(241.9)

(478,378)

(423.45)

(841,613)

Global losses

19.38

6,155.41

0.000,2

395.44

-742,591

0.04

(2004/2005

(211.95)

(419,142)

(350.74)

(697,107)

US hurricane

removed)

Global losses

153.69

-258,129

0.01

710.54**

-1,366,805 **

0.11

(Katrina

(211.94)

(419,134)

(340.89)

(677,520)

removed)

Global losses

99.46

-156,213

0.004

698.75*

-1,349,145

0.08

(China flood

(225.81)

(446,556)

(413.58)

(821,998)

removed)

Peril

Flood

124.01

-218,293

0.002

412.58

-792,552

0.02

(169.37)

(334,949)

(263.3*8*)

(523,477)

Hurricane

204.89

-386,844

0.008

837.1 **

-1,645,767

0.16

(181.7)

(359,324)

(311.51)

(619,139)

Hail

10.34

-20,101

0.05

-1.43

3342

0.003

(6.35)

(12,559)

(14.8)

(29,408)

Wildfire

3.45

-6,267

0.04

0.41

-217.23

0.000,2

(2.36)

(4,668)

(4.51)

(8,963)

Wind

46.38

-89,604

0.02

5.47

-8148

0.001

(45.57)

(90,125)

(101.23)

(201,194)

Region

Australia

-3.76

8,333

0.001

-50.52

101,391 *

0.08

(14.84)

(29,351)

(30.21)

(60,053)

Canada+

6.87*

-13,448 *

0.05

7.72

-15,136

0.02

(4.01)

(7,923)

(9.73)

(19,339)

Caribbean

31.09

-60,324

0.04

66.44*

-130,739 *

0.09

(19.83)

(39,208)

(35.3)

(70,167)

Central

3.51

-6,286

0.001

25.42

-49,953

0.03

America

(13.59)

(26,877)

(26.57)

(52,814)

China +

371.24 ***

-725,012***

0.12

660.15 ***

-1,300,388

0.19

(135.3)

(267,570)

(234.16)

(465,393)

Europe

-18.6

44,461

0.001

128.86

-248,958

0.02

(109.19)

(215,936)

(152.46)

(303,021)

Trends in weather-related catastrophe losses Table 12.A1. (cont.)

Time period

Trends in weather-related catastrophe losses Table 12.A1. (cont.)

Time period

Survey group

1950-2005

1970-2005

Slope

Intercept

r2

Slope

Intercept

r2

India +

-24.24

53,722

0.01

-285.33 ***

573,616 ***

0.25

(44.5)

(88,001)

(84.64)

(168,220)

Japan

-174.12

350,072

0.04

101.13

-198,148

0.06

(120.1*)*

(237,504)

(68.98)

(137,096)

Korea +

16.63 **

-32,617 **

0.08

25.04

-49,366

0.05

(7.89)

(15,612)

(19.21) **

(38,175*)*

Philippines

-0.95

2,216

0.0007

-21.89**

43,914

0.13

(4.94)

(9,762)

(9.92)

(19,718)

United States

243.2

-463,054

0.03

652.71

-1,278,026

0.07

(183.53)

(362,946)

(408.88)

(812,658)

n =

56

36

a Regression results presented with coefficient on top and standard error in parentheses

+, dataset incomplete and contains several zero values

"significant at 10%

"significant at 5%

"""significant at 1%.

Table 12.A2. OLS regression of global temperature anomaly on normalized losses Dependent variable: normalized catastrophe losses.a

Time period

Table 12.A2. OLS regression of global temperature anomaly on normalized losses Dependent variable: normalized catastrophe losses.a

Time period

1950-2005

1970-2005

Survey group

Slope

Intercept

r2

Slope

Intercept

r2

Global losses

47,805.46 ***

43,662.99***

0.12

66,032.47 ***

36,865.44***

0.22

(17,769.29)

(4,077.56)

(21,557.72)

(5,835.75)

Global losses

17,287.39

42,930.31 ***

0.02

26,203.59

38,629.04

0.06

hurricane

(16,044.36)

(3,681.74)

(17,765.87)

(4,809.29)

removed)

Global losses

28,149.76 *

43,280.37***

0.06

40,074.7**

38,195.14***

0.14

(Katrina

(15,836.4)

(36,34.02)

(17,251.5)

(4,670.11)

removed)

Global losses

19,131.69

38,764.23***

0.02

34,277.87

33,455.24***

0.07

(China

(17,109.21)

(3,926.09)

(21,291.59)

(5,763.71)

flood

removed)

Peril

Flood

22,379.18 *

24,926.94***

0.05

28,727.42**

22,287.77***

0.12

(12,660.64)

(2,905.27)

(13,093.69)

(3,544.51)**

Hurricane

21,560.86

16,392.98 ***

0.04

35,886.66**

11,514.39

0.12

(12,753.8)

(31,56.12)

(16,483.66)

(44,62.19)

Hail

143.67

340.87***

0.002

-627.42

605.90 ***

0.02

(497.29)

(114.11)

(751.46)

(203.42)

Wildfire

65.18

549.52 ***

0.002

-117.75

628.60

0.01

(183.89)

(42.20) **

(230.48)

(62.39)

Wind

3,875.94

1,764.97

0.003

1,708.32

2,419.29

0.003

(3,480.08)

(798.58)

(5,184.73)

(1,403.53)

Region

Australia

-1,500.7

1,025.89 ***

0.03

-3,511.97**

1,609.05***

0.14

(1,117.65)

(256.47)

(1,495.71)

(404.89)

Canada+

780.33 **

71.24

0.11

882.35*

48.28

0.09

(296.28) **

(67.99)**

(480.46)

(130.06)

Caribbean

3,620.62 **

849.06**

0.10

4,508.85**

497.17

0.17

(1,470.62)

(337.47)

(1,738.78)

(470.70)

Central

952.74

952.74

0.02

2,210.25 *

171.08

0.08

America

(1,032.29)

(1,032.29)

(1,328.3)

(359.58)

China+

31,417.38 ***

6,294.01 ***

0.15

30,792.82**

6,135.57**

0.16

(10,188.32)

(2,337.94)

(12,252.42)

(3,316.77)

Europe

7,723.14

6,995.16 ***

0.02

12,094.17

4,982.11 **

0.07

(8,289.47)

(1,902.20)

(7,625.59) (2,064.28)

India+

-5,531.46

62,72.84

0.05

-13,748.17*** 8,987.72***

0.22

(3,329.68)

(764.07)

(4,426.33)

(1,198.22)

Trends in weather-related catastrophe losses Table 12.A2. (cont.)

Time period

Survey group

1950-2005

1970-2005

Slope

Intercept

r2

Slope

Intercept

r2

Japan

-6,053.15

6,294.55***

0.008

2,861.27

2,341.79**

0.02

(9,328.73)

(2,140.69)

(3,615.41)

(978.70)

Korea+

1,393.26 **

135.84

0.09

1,468.48

141.61

0.06

(598.98)

(137.45)

(977.72)

(264.67)

Philippines

-298.97

-298.97

0.01

-886.61 *

567.21 ***

0.08

(375.57)

(375.57)

(522.46)

(141.43) **

United States

17,549.67

16,376.69***

0.03

28,339.80

14,142.37

0.05

(14,065.9)

(3,227.74)

(21,196.26)

(5,737.91)

n =

56

36

a Regression results presented with value on top and standard error in parentheses

+, dataset incomplete and contains several zero values

"significant at 10%

"significant at 5%

""significant at 1%.

Table 12.A3. OLS regression of wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related losses (in billions USD) on year

Dependent variable: wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related catastrophe losses.a

Time period

Table 12.A3. OLS regression of wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related losses (in billions USD) on year

Dependent variable: wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related catastrophe losses.a

Time period

Survey group

1950-2005

1970-2005

Slope

Intercept

r2

Slope

Intercept

r2

Global losses

9.22 **

-17,567**

0.08

3.67

-6,535

0.01

(4.30)

(8,507)

(7.92)

(15,740)

Peril

Flood

4.88

-9,135

0.03

4.08

-7,550

0.01

(3.77)

(7,447)

(6.36)

(12,638.7)

Hurricane

4.11 **

-7,976 **

0.09

-1.34

2,879

0.003

(1.75)

(3,462)

(4.11)

(8,165)

Hail

0.008

-15.70

0.03

-0.000,3

0.92

0.000,

(0.006)

(12.27)

(0.015)

(28.85)

Wildfire

0.005

-9.30

0.01

0.01

-26.08

0.02

(0.009)

(17.58)

(0.01)

(28.73)

Wind

0.09

-168.19

0.02

0.01

-15.29

0.000,

(0.09)

(169.17)

(0.19)

(377.65)

Region

Australia

-4.36

9,648.72

0.001

-58.50

117,394.5 *

0.08

(17.19)

(33,984.61)

(34.98)

(69,531.92)

Canada+

0.01 *

-16.53*

0.05

0.01

-18.6

0.02

(0.005)

(9.74)

(0.01*)

(23.77)

Caribbean

0.27

-523.54

0.05

0.54

-1,065.68*

0.09

(0.16)

(319.33)

(0.29)

(571.95)

Central America

0.03

-47.88

0.001

0.19

-380.47

0.03

(0.10)„

(204.72)

(0.20)

(402.26)

China+

10.28

-20,081 **

0.11

19.12***

-37,679

0.18

(3.97)

(7,842)

(6.91)

(13,735)

Europe

-0.03

83.45

0.001

0.24

-467.30

0.02

(0.20)

(405.32)

(0.29)

(568.78)

India+

-1.47

3,252.23

0.01

-17.27 ***

34,725.67***

0.25

(2.69)

(5,327.43)

(5.12)

(10,183.7)

Japan

-0.20

394.86

0.04

0.11

-223.50

0.06

(0.14)«

(267.89)

(0.08)

(154.64)

Korea+

44.69

-87,676**

0.08

67.32

-132,700

0.05

(21.22)

(41,966)

(51.63)

(102,619)

Philippines

0.04

-87.68 **

0.08

0.07

-132.70

0.05

(0.02)

(41.97)

(0.05)

(102.62)

United States

243.2

-463,054

0.03

652.71

-1,278,026

0.07

(183.53)

(362,946)

(408.88)

(812,658)

n =

56

36

a Regression results presented with coefficient on top and standard error in parentheses +, dataset incomplete and contains several zero values significant at 10% significant at 5% ***significant at 1%.

Table 12.A4. OLS regression of global temperature anomaly on wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related losses (in billions USD).

Dependent variable: wealth-adjusted normalized weather-related catastrophe losses. a

Time period

Survey group

1950-2005

1970-2005

Slope

Intercept

r2

Slope

Intercept

r2

Global losses

704.50 **

594.13 ***

0.08

315.70

711.28 ***

0.02

(329.14)

(75.53)

(403.93)

(109.34)

Peril

Flood

487.79 *

462.41 ***

0.05

350.23

490.90***

0.03

(284.90)

(65.38)

(322.62)

(87.34)

Hurricane

191.57

140.48 ***

0.03

- 75.94

234.91 ***

0.004

(138.17)

(31.71)

(210.66)

(57.03)

Hail

0.008

0.27**

0.001

- 0.62

0.49 **

0.02

(0.48)

(0.11)

(0.74)

(0.20)

Wildfire

0.57

0.41

0.01

0.94

0.27

0.05

(0.68)

(0.16)

(0.73)

(0.20)

Wind

7.28

3.31 **

0.02

3.21

4.54*

0.003

(6.53)

(1.50)

(9.73)

(2.63)

Region

Australia

- 1.74

1.19 ***

0.03

- 4.07**

1.86 ***

0.14

(1.29)

(0.30)

(1.73*)

(0.47)

Canada+

0.96**

0.09

0.11

1.08 *

0.06

0.09

(0.36)

(0.08)

(0.59)

(0.16)

Caribbean

30.20**

6.70**

0.11

36.75**

4.05

0.14

(11.98)

(2.75)

(14.17)

(3.84)

Central America

7.26

4.28

0.02

16.83

1.30

0.08

(7.86)

(1.80)

(10.12)

(2.74)

China+

969.97***

164.79

0.17

1,035.22***

133.0

0.20

(293.41)

(67.33)

(349.92)

(94.73)

Europe

14.50

13.13***

0.02

22.70

9.35**

0.07

(15.56)

(3.57) ...

(14.31)

(3.87)

India+

- 334.86

379.75***

0.05

- 832.29 ***

544.10 ***

0.22

(201.57)

(46.26)

(267.96)

(72.54)

Japan

Korea+

3,745.21 **

365.16

0.09

3,947.37

380.66

0.06

(1,610.10)

(369.47)

(2,628.19)

(711.46)

philippines

3.75**

0.37

0.09

3.95

0.38

0.06

(1.61)

(0.37)

(2.63)

(0.71) «

United States

17.55

16,376.69***

0.03

28,339.80

14,142.37

0.05

(14.07)

(3,227.74)

(21,196.26)

(5,737.91)

n =

56

36

a Regression results presented with value on top and standard error in parentheses +, dataset incomplete and contains several zero values significant at 10% **significant at 5% ***significant at 1%.

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