Statistical downscaling

Different from temperature in sub-domain division, the regionally-mean monthly mean precipitations are downscaled and Northwestern China is also divided into four sub-domains (Area1. >43oN; Area 2. <90oE ,< 43oN; Area 3. 90—101oE, < 43°N; Area 4. >101oE) and Southwestern China into three sub-domains (Area 1. <100oE; Area 2. >100oE, >28oN; Area 3. >100oE, <28oN) to be studied.

Table 10.10 shows the downscaled mean precipitation change for the years 2071 to 2099 relative to the period 1961 to1990. In January, there is an increase of rainfall in Southern Xinjiang and Northeastern China and a decrease in Southern China under both A2 and B2 scenarios. Rainfall will increase under A2 scenario and decrease under B2 scenario in Northern Xinjiang, Area 4 of Northwestern China, Northern China, Area 2 of Southwestern China, Central China and Eastern China, whereas rainfall will decrease under A2 scenario and increase under B2 scenario in Area 3 of Northwestern China, and Area 1 and 3 of Southwestern China.

In July, there is a decrease of rainfall in the west of China and Southern China and an increase in Central China and Eastern China under both A2 and B2 scenarios. Rainfall will decrease under A2 scenario and increase under B2 scenario in Northern China and Northeastern China.

There is a little more increase of rainfall under B2 scenario than under A2 scenario in Southern Xinjiang and Northeastern China in January and in Middle China and Eastern China in July. There is a little more decrease under B2 scenario than under A2 scenario in the west China and Southern China.

Table 10.10 Downscaled precipitation change for the years 2071 to 2099 relative to the period 1961 to 1990 using HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios in January and July (unit: mm/day).

Jan Jul

Jan Jul

Table 10.10 Downscaled precipitation change for the years 2071 to 2099 relative to the period 1961 to 1990 using HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios in January and July (unit: mm/day).

Jan Jul

I1

I2

I3

I4

II

III

A2

0.8

0.2

-0.5

0.8

0.5

1.5

B2

-2.0

0.3

0.0

-0.9

-0.4

2.3

A2

-24.4

-2.5

-21.7

-26.5

-0.4

-10.3

B2

-19.9

-1.8

-14.7

-15.7

6.8

5.1

IV1

IV2

IV3

V

VI

VII

A2

-0.7

1.9

-6.3

8.6

5.8

-18.9

B2

0.8

-1.1

4.7

-8.9

-1.3

-4.3

A2

-3.2

-47.7

-51.3

9.5

6.8

-19.4

B2

-6.8

-26.6

-34.1

14.4

12.5

-12.3

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