Conclusions and some outstanding issues

Reviewing the previous researches, it is easy to find that studies on the onset of East Asian summer monsoon and the impact of its intra-seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variations on the climate in China have gained critical progress. In the meantime, the affecting factors and the physical processes are discussed as well. After such studies, the precise prediction of the seasonal variation of summer monsoon in China has been improved in a degree, and the predictability of the inter-annual and decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon has been further comprehended. However, since the climate change of East Asian summer monsoon and its related physical mechanisms are complicated, many phenomena associated with the intra-seasonal, inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon in China and its surrounding areas, along with the affecting factors and physical processes, have not been revealed clearly enough. In addition, the atmospheric circulation model or the air-sea coupled model cannot simulate well the variation of summer monsoon rain belt in East Asia. Therefore, the following questions require further studies:

(1)Interactions between the monsoon activities in East Asia and the low frequency oscillation;

(2)Inner dynamic processes associated with the variability of East Asian monsoon;

(3)Physical mechanisms of the inter-annual variation of East Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with the East Asian winter monsoon in view of the annual cycle;

(4)Interactions between East Asian monsoon and ENSO cycle, and reproduction of this process by the air-sea coupled model;

(5)Simulation of East Asian summer monsoon, especially the rain belt;

(6)Causes of the inter-decadal variation of East Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the inter-annual variation of summer monsoon;

As CLIVAR is pushed ahead step by step, the authors believe the above questions will be investigated in matters of observation, theory and simulation more comprehensively and more exhaustively in the future.

Acknowledgements. The authors would like to thank European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Meteorological Information Center of China Meteorological Administration for providing the related data and thank Doctor Wen Min, Chen Hua, Sun Chenghu, and Liu Yunyun for their suggestions and help in writing this chapter. This work is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grants 40605022, 40221503 and 40375032.

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