Cambridge University Press

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sào Paulo

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

Information on this title: © Cambridge University Press 1992

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 1992

A catalogue recordfor this publication is available from the British Library

ISBN-13 978-0-521 -42091 -4 hardback ISBN-10 0-521-42091-1 hardback

ISBN-13 978-0-521 -42109-6 paperback ISBN-10 0-521-42109-8 paperback

Transferred to digital printing 2005

Cover illustration: Courtesy of USEPA/Bruce Presentations


Foreword ix

Acknowledgements xi

List of Reviewers xiii

1 Living in a Warming World 1

Irving M. Mintzer

I The Science of Climate Change

2 Linkages Between Global Warming, Ozone Depletion, Acid Deposition and

Other Aspects of Global Environmental Change 15

Paul J. Crutzen and Georgii S. Golitsyn

3 Climate Sensitivity, Climate Feedbacks and Policy Implications 33

Martin I. Hoffert

Triad Strategy for Improving Climate Prediction (Syukuro Manabe) 51

4 Lessons from the Ice Cores: Rapid Climate Changes

During the Last 160,000 Years 55

Hans Oeschger and Irving M. Mintzer

5 Changes in Climates of the Past: Lessons for the Future 65

Michael B. McElroy

6 Indices and Indicators of Climate Change:

Issues of Detection, Validation and Climate Sensitivity 85

Tom M. L. Wigley, Graeme I. Pearman and P. Michael Kelly

II Impacts of Global Climate Change

7 Future Sea Level Rise:

Environmental and Socio-Political Considerations 97

Richard A. Warrick and Atiq A. Rahman

8 Effects of Climate Change on Food Production 113

Martin L. Parry and M. S. Swaminathan

9 Effects of Climate Change on Shared Fresh Water Resources 127

Peter H. Gleick

10 Effects of Climate Change on Weather-Related Disasters 141

James K. Mitchell and Neil J. Ericksen

11 The Effect of Changing Climate on Population 153

Nathan Keyfitz in Energy Use and Technology

12 The Energy Predicament in Perspective 163

John P. Holdren

13 Electricity: Technological Opportunities and Management Challenges to Achieving a Low-Emissions Future 171

David Jhirad and Irving M. Mintzer

14 Transportation in Developing Nations: Managing the Institutional and

Technological Transition to a Low-Emissions Future 195

Jayant Sathaye and Michael Walsh

IV Economics and the Role of Institutions

15 The Economics of Near-Term Reductions in Greenhouse Gases 217

Eberhard Jochem and Olav Hohmeyer

16 "Wait and See" versus "No Regrets":

Comparing the Costs of Economic Strategies 237

R. K. Pachauri and Mala Damodaran

17 International Organisations in a Warming World:

Building a Global Climate Regime 253

Kilaparti Ramakrishna and Oran R. Young

18 Modifying the Mandate of Existing Institutions: NGOs 265

Navroz K. Dubash and Michael Oppenheimer

19 Modifying the Mandate of Existing Institutions: Corporations 281

Peter Schwartz, Napier Collyns, Ken Hamik and Joseph Henri

The Lesson of Continuous Improvement (Art Kleiner) 292

20 International Trade, Technology Transfer and Climate Change 295

Konrad von Moltke

V Equity Considerations and Future Negotiations

21 Sharing the Burden 305

Michael Grubb, James Sebenius, Antonio Magalhaes and Susan Subak

22 Climate Negotiations: the North/South Perspective 323

Tariq Osman Hyder

23 Shaping Institutions to Build New Partnerships:

Lessons from the Past and a Vision for the Future 337

William A. Nitze, Alan S. Miller and Peter H. Sand

Annexes 351

Glossary 355

Index 365


It is not only the non-specialist, the man and woman in the street and the ordinary person who finds "climate change" and "global warming" a fascinating yet difficult topic. In most societies some tenuous link to our agricultural origins ensures that the weather is a frequent feature of conversation. But weather is not climate - even if it results from it. Conflicting signs, different emphasis placed on the many strands of evidence, new knowledge and different propensities to be optimistic or pessimistic all lead to difficulties in identifying the "signal from the noise," in recognizing trends in global climate change - in discerning evidence of a real climate warming effect.

Even scientists, trained in the scientific method are, from time to time periodically perplexed. Many physicists, chemists and those used to working at the "chemical" end of biology feel a need to have more evidence, more measurement, more research. At home with the process of inductive reasoning, hypothesis establishment and direct experimental procedures, any consensus view on climate change presents some problems due to the range of uncertainties. The whole climate change issue is, however, much more susceptible to approaches based on deductive reasoning, where information is assembled and interpretations made on the basis of the best available evidence so that a "working hypothesis" or explanation is produced, involving a minimum of assumptions. There is nothing new or "unscientific" in this approach. Agricultural scientists, and others, are used to working from sample estimates, frequency distributions and probabilities; the whole of the Earth's geological record, and the evolutionary basis of biology, has been interpreted in this way. Wait for the definitive experiment and you wait for ever.

In the area of climate change and climate change prediction there is only one definitive experiment possible, and that is a rather long-term one. It may be prudent to make some well-chosen responses before we are certain "beyond reasonable doubt." And fortunately, there is much accumulating evidence and the possibility of climate simulation through General Circulation Models of, not only increased sophistication but also of improved realism. Of course, uncertainty is still the name of the game but we should not fall into the trap of making the mistake that could be characterized by adapting a well-known remark of Edmund Burke — nobody makes a greater mistake than he who thinks he knows nothing because he knows so little!

Of course there is a need for more information, further research and continued assessment of the evidence, the effects and the possible policy and management responses. It is in relation to this need for a continued updating of the assessment that this volume has been produced. It has drawn on the expertise — and thoughtfulness — of the international community of professionals concerned with climate change issues. It also attempts, by the editorial commentary that accompanies each chapter, to evolve a synthesis as well as a synopsis. It does not take up an advocacy stance, but seeks to expose the issues and inform the reader. In this it is a continuation of a programme element of the Stockholm Environment Institute that has focused for some years on, and contributed to, responses to potential man-induced climatic modification.

The impact of potential climate change is a challenge to national and international planners and policy makers. Equally it challenges industry, commerce and all elements of the local or wider community. It is for these people that the book is written.

M.J. Chadwick


0 0

Post a comment