Ways To Make A Wedge

An overall carbon strategy for the next half a century produces seven wedges' worth of emissions reductions. Here are 15 technologies from which those seven can be chosen (taking care to avoid double-counting). Each of these measures, when phased in over 50 years, prevents the release of 25 billion tons of carbon. Leaving one wedge blank symbolizes that this list is by no means exhaustive.

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Notes:

1 World fleet size in 2056 could well be two billion cars. Assume they average 10,000 miles a year.

2 "Large" is one-gigawatt (GW) capacity. Plants run 90 percent of the time.

3 Here and below, assume coal plants run 90 percent of the time at 50 percent efficiency. Present coal power output is equivalent to 800 such plants.

4 Assume 90 percent of CO2 is captured.

5 Assume a car (10,000 miles a year, 60 miles per gallon equivalent) requires 170 kilograms of hydrogen a year.

6 Assume 30 million barrels of synfuels a day, about a third of today's total oil production. Assume half of carbon originally in the coal is captured.

7 Assume wind and solar produce, on average, 30 percent of peak power. Thus replace 2,100 GW of 90-percent-time coal power with 2,100 GW (peak) wind or solar plus 1,400 GW of load-following coal power, for net displacement of 700 GW.

8 Assume 60-mpg cars, 10,000 miles a year, biomass yield of 15 tons a hectare, and negligible fossil-fuel inputs. World cropland is 1,500 million hectares.

9 Carbon emissions from deforestation are currently about two billion tons a year. Assume that by 2056 the rate falls by half in the business-as-usual projection and to zero in the flat path.

to heat a fluid and drive a turbine. Or the route can be indirect, harnessing hydropower and wind power, both of which rely on sun-driven weather patterns. The intermittency of renewable power does not diminish its capacity to contribute wedges; even if coal and natural gas plants provide the backup power, they run only part-time (in tandem with energy storage) and use less carbon than if they ran all year. Not strictly renewable, but also usually included in the family, is geothermal energy, obtained by mining the heat in the earth's interior. Any of these sources, scaled up from its current contribution, could produce a wedge. One must be careful not to double-count the possibilities; the same coal plant can be left unbuilt only once.

Nuclear power is probably the most controversial of all the wedge strategies. If the fleet of nuclear power plants were to expand by a factor of five by 2056, displacing conventional coal plants, it would provide two wedges. If the current fleet were to be shut down and replaced with modern coal plants without carbon capture and storage, the result would be minus one-half wedge. Whether nuclear power will be scaled up or down will depend on whether governments can find political solutions to waste disposal and on whether plants can run without accidents. (Nuclear plants are mutual hostages: the world's least well-run plant can imperil the future of all the others.) Also critical will be strict rules that prevent civilian nuclear technology from becoming a stimulus for nuclear weapons development. These rules will have to be uniform across all countries, so as to remove the sense of a double standard that has long been a spur to clandestine facilities.

Oil accounted for 43 percent of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2002, while coal accounted for 37 percent; natural gas made up the remainder. More than half the oil was used for transport. So smartening up electricity production alone cannot fill the stabilization triangle; transportation, too, must be decarbonized. As with coal-fired electricity, at least a wedge may be available from each of three complementary options: reduced use, improved efficiency and de carbonized energy sources. People can take fewer unwanted trips (telecommuting instead of vehicle commuting) and pursue the travel they cherish (adventure, family visits) in fuel-efficient vehicles running on low-carbon fuel. The fuel can be a product of crop residues or dedicated crops, hydrogen made from low-carbon electricity, or low-carbon electricity itself, charging an onboard battery. Sources of the low-carbon electricity could include wind, nuclear power, or coal with capture and storage.

Looming over this task is the prospect that, in the interest of energy secu-

39 percent

U.S. share of global carbon emissions in 1952

23 percent

U.S. share in 2002

The U.S. share of global emissions can be expected to continue to drop.

rity, the transport system could become more carbon-intensive. That will happen if transport fuels are derived from coal instead of petroleum. Coal-based synthetic fuels, known as synfuels, provide a way to reduce global demand for oil, lowering its cost and decreasing global dependence on Middle East petroleum. But it is a decidedly climate-unfriendly strategy. A synfuel-powered car emits the same amount of CO2 as a gasoline-powered car, but synfuel fabrication from coal spews out far more carbon than does refining gasoline from crude oil—enough to double the emissions per mile of driving. From the perspective of mitigating climate change, it is fortunate that the emissions at a syn-fuels plant can be captured and stored.

If business-as-usual trends did lead to the widespread adoption of synfuel, then capturing CO2 at synfuels plants might well produce a wedge.

Not all wedges involve new energy technology. If all the farmers in the world practiced no-till agriculture rather than conventional plowing, they would contribute a wedge. Eliminating deforestation would result in two wedges, if the alternative were for deforestation to continue at current rates. Curtailing emissions of methane, which today contribute about half as much to greenhouse warming as CO2, may provide more than one wedge: needed is a deeper understanding of the anaerobic biological emissions from cattle, rice paddies and irrigated land. Lower birth rates can produce a wedge, too—for example, if they hold the global population in 2056 near eight billion people when it otherwise would have grown to nine billion.

Action Plan what set of policies will yield seven wedges? To be sure, the dramatic changes we anticipate in the fossil-fuel system, including routine use of CO2 capture and storage, will require institutions that reliably communicate a price for present and future carbon emissions. We estimate that the price needed to jump-start this transition is in the ballpark of $100 to $200 per ton of carbon—the range that would make it cheaper for owners of coal plants to capture and store CO2 rather than vent it. The price might fall as technologies climb the learning curve. A carbon emissions price of $100 per ton is comparable to the current U.S. production credit for new renewable and nuclear energy relative to coal, and it is about half the current U.S. subsidy of ethanol relative to gasoline. It also was the price of CO2 emissions in the European Union's emissions trading system for nearly a year, spanning 2005 and 2006. (One ton of carbon is carried in 3.7 tons of carbon dioxide, so this price is also $27 per ton of CO2.) Based on carbon content, $100 per ton of carbon is $12 per barrel of oil and $ 60 per ton of coal. It is 25 cents per gallon of gasoline and two cents per

RICH WORLD, POOR WORLD

To keep global emissions constant, both developed nations (defined here as members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) and developing nations will need to cut their emissions relative to what they would have been (arrows in graphs below). The projections shown represent only one path the world could take; others are also plausible.

To keep global emissions constant, both developed nations (defined here as members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) and developing nations will need to cut their emissions relative to what they would have been (arrows in graphs below). The projections shown represent only one path the world could take; others are also plausible.

Share ofCO2 emissions in 2002

To hold global emissions flat, the OECD must emit less than today .

...to let non-OECD nations emit more as they develop economically

Current trend Constant global emissions

Current trend Constant global emissions

2002

2052

OECD

B North America and Mexico | Europe

H East Asia and Oceania

NON-OECD

| South/Southeast Asia ^ Africa ^ East Asia | Former Soviet Bloc | West Asia

Central America and South America

2002

Year

2052

2002

Year

2052

kilowatt-hour of electricity from coal.

But a price on CO2 emissions, on its own, may not be enough. Governments may need to stimulate the commercialization of low-carbon technologies to increase the number of competitive options available in the future. Examples include wind, photovoltaic power and hybrid cars. Also appropriate are policies designed to prevent the construction of long-lived capital facilities that are mismatched to future policy. Utilities, for instance, need to be encouraged to invest in CO2 capture and storage for new coal power plants, which would be very costly to retrofit later. Still another set of policies can harness the capacity of energy producers to promote efficiency—motivating power utilities to care about the installation and maintenance of efficient appliances, natural gas companies to care about the buildings where their gas is burned, and oil companies to care about the engines that run on their fuel.

To freeze emissions at the current level, if one category of emissions goes up, another must come down. If emissions from natural gas increase, the combined emissions from oil and coal must decrease. If emissions from air travel climb, those from some other economic sector must fall. And if today's poor countries are to emit more, today's richer countries must emit less.

How much less? It is easy to bracket the answer. Currently the industrial nations—the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel opment (OECD)—account for almost exactly half the planet's CO2 emissions, and the developing countries plus the nations formerly part of the Soviet Union account for the other half. In a world of constant total carbon emissions, keeping the OECD's share at 50 percent seems impossible to justify in the face of the enormous pent-up demand for energy in the non-OECD countries, where more than 80 percent of the world's people live. On the other hand, the OECD member states must emit some carbon in 2056. Simple arithmetic indicates that to hold global emissions rates steady, nonOECD emissions cannot even double.

One intermediate value results if all OECD countries were to meet the emissions-reduction target for the U.K. that

was articulated in 2003 by Prime Minister Tony Blair—namely, a 60 percent reduction by 2050, relative to recent levels. The non-OECD countries could then emit 60 percent more CO2. On average, by midcentury they would have one half the per capita emissions of the OECD countries. The CO2 output of every country, rich or poor today, would be well below what it is generally projected to be in the absence of climate policy. In the case of the U.S., it would be about four times less.

Blair's goal would leave the average American emitting twice as much as the world average, as opposed to five times as much today. The U.S. could meet this goal in many ways [see illustration at right]. These strategies will be followed by most other countries as well. The resultant cross-pollination will lower every country's costs.

Fortunately, the goal of decarboniza-tion does not conflict with the goal of eliminating the world's most extreme poverty. The extra carbon emissions produced when the world's nations accelerate the delivery of electricity and modern cooking fuel to the earth's poorest people can be compensated for by, at most, one fifth of a wedge of emissions reductions elsewhere.

Beyond 2056

the stabilization triangle deals only with the first 50-year leg of the future. One can imagine a relay race made of 50-year segments, in which the first runner passes a baton to the second in 2056. Intergenerational equity requires that the two runners have roughly equally difficult tasks. It seems to us that the task we have given the second runner (to cut the 2056 emissions rate in half between 2056 and 2106) will not be harder than the task of the first runner (to keep global emissions in 2056 at present levels)—provided that between now and 2056 the world invests in research and development to get ready. A vigorous effort can prepare the revolutionary technologies that will give the second half of the century a running start. Those options could include scrubbing CO2 directly from the air, carbon storage in

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