Armed Conflicts

Climate change will do more than just raise the temperature

The path from climate change to conflict will not be a direct one. For that matter, most roads to conflict are indirect and lie in structural and behavioral patterns that make the path easier to travel. There are three structural pathways from climate change to armed conflict sustained trends, intervening variables, and the need for conflict triggers. First, conflict only emerges after a sustained period of divergent climate patterns. People can survive aberrant, short-term climate change...

What Were The Main Conflicts During The Little Ice

A third period that shows the impact of climate change on conflict has to do with cooling conditions and the onset of the Little Ice Age LIA . Scholars differ exactly on how long the LIA lasted. Some believe it started as early as 1000 in some northern regions. Historian Brian Fagan believes the LIA lasted from 1300 to 1850 Fagan 2008 . Agriculture records from the period show that vineyards gradually disappeared from England, and the cultivation of oranges in north China was no longer...

Anthropogene Warming Period

Theories of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change emerged in the nineteenth century for good reason. On the one hand, sciences such as chemistry and physics were at a point where research could advance on a scholarly basis. On the other hand, people could observe that climatic conditions were beginning to change. In 1861, John Tyndall started research into ice age theories. Tyndall was an avid mountain climber who no doubt saw the receding glaciers during his treks. Svante Arrhenius, in...

Medieval Climate Optimum

Several scholars refer to a historic period called the Medieval Climate Optimum or MCO , that lasted from ad 500 to 1000. The MCO created a period of sustained progress in Europe, because warmer conditions brought longer growing seasons for societies that were almost entirely agriculture based. Some researchers suggest that temperatures rose in the MCO by, on average, about 2 C over the period. Many climatologists regard the MCO as the warmest period in the past 4,000 years. Herbert Lamb, a...

The evidence for and forecasts of climate change

The most authoritative and extensive forecasts on climate change come from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of scientists from 130 countries (IPCC 2007a 4). The IPCC 2007 report expressed much higher confidence in climate change forecasts than in previous reports. The Fourth Assessment Review (FAR) of the IPCC sees changes in long-term climate patterns, including Arctic temperature and ice, changes in precipitation, greater or more intensive extreme events, and the...

The expanding Equatorial Tension Belt and the emerging Polar Tension Belt

How Far Siberia From The Equator

Two geopolitical features, tension belts, resulting from climate change, will influence conflict patterns in the twenty-first century. First, there will be an intensification and expansion of an existing area of climate change and conflict, the Equatorial Tension Belt - a broad band centered on the planet's equator. The Equatorial Tension Belt will grow southward into Africa and extend deep into central Asia. Climate change will exacerbate and expand the existing Equatorial Tension Belt, which...

Extrapolating conflict trends

Actors Mapping Mali Conflict

The nature of war has been shifting and becoming more dangerous for the civilian. Half a century ago, Quincy Wright wrote that the total number of deaths indirectly due to war have been three times as great as direct war deaths in twentieth-century Europe and that the proportion of losses outside Europe and in Europe has been greater Wright 1965 245 . The trends that Wright noted then continue today. Since 1945, the role of civilians in warfare has become more prominent in terms of casualties...

Climate Change and Armed Conflict

This book examines the evolution of the relationship between climate change and conflict, and attempts to visualize future trends. Owing to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, current trends in climate change will not appreciably alter over the next half century even if drastic action is taken now. Changes in climate will produce unique types and modes of conflict, redefine the value of important resources, and create new challenges to maintaining social order and stability....

Optimists and pessimists realists and idealists

This section lays out a conceptual framework for understanding and explaining climate change and conflict, both in the past and in the future. It focuses on two separate but related issues. One issue is how researchers look at the future and their perceptions of human adaptability, divided along lines of those who are optimistic about the future and those who are pessimistic. The second issue divides the path to solving such problems, and leads to two groups those that see policies emerging out...

Holocene Warming Period

To understand a future climate that is rapidly warming, it is useful to examine an earlier period of momentous and relatively rapid heating of the planet. To find a comparable condition today, it is necessary to look back to the end of the last Ice Age during the onset of the Holocene Warming Period HWP . The HWP marks Table 2.1 Climate types, changes in temperature, and migration impacts Climate type temperature Temperature increase Temperature decrease Climate type temperature Temperature...